Wholesale turkey prices - especially fresh ones - are soaring ahead of Thanksgiving.
The wholesale price for a whole hen turkey is projected to average $1.32 per pound in 2025, a 40% jump from last year, according to the USDA and American Farm Bureau Federation analysis.
The price hike is driven by lower production, with a 3% drop in birds raised nationally. Producers are planning to raise just 195 million birds and that is the lowest supply figure in 40 years.
Executive Director of The Minnesota Turkey Growers Association Ashley Kohls says while frozen turkeys will stay relatively cheap, if you're looking for a fresh bird? That may be pricier.
"So if your family is the type that waits and buys a fresh turkey from the grocery store or from somebody local, that turkey is going to be higher than it was at the same time last year, just because the demand for turkey is higher," says Kohls.
Minnesota is a top U.S. turkey producer, ranking second to North Carolina in the total number of pounds produced, and it makes local growers particularly affected by these industry-wide pressures. Minnesota produced over 900 million pounds of turkey in 2025.
"Right now is kind of the Super Bowl time to prepare for Thanksgiving within our industry, but turkey is grown in Minnesota year-round," says Kohls. "And so folks have been working year round to put turkeys in the freezers for folks to enjoy."
Kohls adds that the price hikes are driven by factors like rising operating costs for farmers in Minnesota.
USDA economists calculate U.S. turkey output at roughly 2.33 billion pounds in the first half of 2025, down 9.7% from the first half of 2024. They blame disease outbreaks and a tighter production pipeline.
The poultry industry continues to fight highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI. The virus continues to spread through commercial barns.
Growers reported over 600,000 affected turkeys in September, much of that in Minnesota. Since 2022, state and federal trackers have counted about 18.7 million affected turkeys nationwide, including more than 2.2 million birds in 2025.
Even with turkey being relatively inexpensive by the pound, many hosts are reconsidering whether it's worth the hassle, particularly when smaller cuts or dishes offer more flavor and less waste. In 2024, Thanksgiving dinner was estimated to cost $58.08 for 10 people, up 19% from 2019. Even small savings, like skipping the full bird, can matter.
Want to replace the bird?
If you're looking for an alternative to the traditional turkey dinner, you have lots of options. Roast chicken is a great go-to alternative. It cooks faster, takes up less oven space and feels special without the commitment of a full turkey. Braised short ribs and pork shoulder are another great option, offering deep flavor with minimal day-of prep, especially when made ahead. For vegetarians and vegans, stuffed acorn squash or portobello mushrooms make hearty, satisfying centerpieces.
Many families find that a compromise is also a great alternative to going all in on a full turkey. "In my family, my dad is the only one who actually likes turkey," said Michelle Price from Honest and Truly. "While we make a small turkey breast for him, the rest of us decided a few years ago that Thanksgiving is mostly about spending time together, so we make pot roast for dinner instead. It still goes with the rest of the side dishes traditional for Thanksgiving, but it's so much easier to do, and all of us enjoy eating it."
Many families who celebrate Thanksgiving in the United States incorporate their own cultural or regional dishes. They serve them instead of, or alongside, traditional American fare.
In some Mexican-American households, tamales are a holiday staple and may take precedence over the turkey, reflecting a tradition of communal cooking and family storytelling. In certain coastal regions, seafood and shellfish also appear on Thanksgiving tables, a nod to local abundance and the region's culinary heritage.
Some households skip a central main dish altogether and let the sides steal the show. Campbell's State of the Sides report in 2024 showed that more than half of Americans said they prefer eating the side dishes over the turkey, and over 60% said they enjoy cooking the sides more than the main bird. Dishes like mac and cheese, cheesy mashed potatoes, roasted Brussels sprouts, sweet potato casserole, cornbread dressing and fresh salads can each shine as part of a generous buffet-style spread.
The Associated Press contributed to this story.