The high-stakes political showdown at the Texas Capitol is now drawing attention from an unexpected place: the online betting market.
A live wager on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket is offering users the chance to bet real money on whether any of the Texas House Democrats who fled the state will be arrested by Friday, August 9.
The question - “Any fleeing Texas House Democrats arrested by Friday?” - has quickly become one of the platform’s most active political bets. As of Tuesday afternoon, traders were putting the odds at around 30% that at least one Democrat will be detained, following the Texas House’s move to issue civil arrest warrants for absent members.
The politics behind the bet
More than 50 House Democrats left the state last week to deny a quorum and block a Republican-led redistricting bill that could shift several congressional seats in favor of the GOP. The lawmakers are holed up in states like Illinois and New York - out of reach of Texas law enforcement.
But with civil warrants now issued, Texas DPS troopers are authorized to detain any lawmakers found within the state and return them to the House chamber.
So far, none of the missing Democrats have returned to Texas, and no arrests have been made. But the clock is ticking - and bettors are watching.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market where users bet on real-world events using cryptocurrency. Wagers are phrased as yes-or-no questions, and prices fluctuate based on public sentiment and developing news.
The site’s legality exists in a regulatory gray area in the U.S., but it has grown rapidly as a hub for political prediction markets, with bets on everything from the 2024 election to Taylor Swift’s next album drop.
Just for fun - or a glimpse into public expectations?
While Polymarket is largely speculative, some experts say prediction markets can offer insight into public expectations around unfolding events. Still, legal experts caution that civil arrest warrants are symbolic unless the lawmakers return to Texas - and even then, enforcement could get murky.
For now, the question of whether a single arrest will happen before Friday remains unanswered. But on the internet, people are already betting on it.
Stay with KRLD for the latest on the redistricting battle and the status of Texas lawmakers on the run.
LISTEN on the Audacy App
Tell your Smart Speaker to "PLAY 1080 KRLD"
Sign Up to receive our KRLD Insider Newsletter for more news
Follow us on Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | YouTube