Four congressional races in Orange County could be among the most competitive in the country this year. According to a new poll, they might be decided by a sliver of Republican-leaning Asian and Latino voters.
KNX News Chief Correspondent Charles Feldman spoke to UCI School of Social Ecology dean Jon Gould, who led the poll. He said of the country’s 25 largest counties, O.C. is one of the few that are truly purple.
“We are about a third Democrat, a third independent, a little bit less than a third Republican,” he said. “But when you split those independents out and look at who they truly vote for over time, we're 46% Democratic, 36% Republican, 12% truly independent.”
But the poll also found discrepancies between respondents who were strongly attached to the Republican party and those described as “modestly partisan.” The modestly partisan Republicans were less enthusiastic about Donald Trump and the right’s cultural agenda – and demographically, they looked more like the county’s Democrats.
“That group is more likely to have Latino and Asian voters in it than white voters, and that makes them look unusual compared to the strongly attached Republicans,” Gould said.
So what does that mean for this year’s elections? Gould said it may come down to which issues these modestly Republican voters are focused on.
“If this election ends up being about abortion, they may very well stay home or even consider Democratic candidates,” he said. “If this election is about taxes and the economy, then that group is probably likely to remain on the Republican side.”
The poll also found that O.C.’s independents tend to dislike Trump more than they dislike Biden, who won the county in 2020.
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