In what could be his last season, Drew Brees leads the New Orleans Saints into the postseason as the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
Matched up with the 8-8 Chicago Bears, the Saints are the biggest betting favorite of the weekend, -10 at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday morning.
BetQL’s model has gone 114-60 (65.5%) across all Bears bets since the start of last season. BetQL has a play on both the side and total in Sunday's Bears-Saints game. Sign up with BetQL today and become a better bettor!
Injury prone Saints offense looks to click in postseason
The Saints are typically thought of as an offensive juggernaut, and while Sean Payton’s unit is one of the most devastating in the league when it is clicking, it has not been complete this season.
Brees played in 12 games after suffering broken ribs and a punctured lung in Week 10, while star receiver Michael Thomas has been unable to shake a high ankle sprain he suffered in Week 1. Thomas played in just seven games this season, but is set to return for this Wild Card matchup after going on injured reserve to rehab the ankle.
Alvin Kamara has been the engine to the Saints offense. Kamara combined for 1,688 all purpose yards and 21 touchdowns this season. Kamara was placed on the COVID-19 reserve list ahead of Week 17, but is expected to play Wild Card Weekend, even though he won’t be able to go through a full week of practice. That's not great news for a Bears defense that will be without linebacker Roquan Smith on Sunday.
When healthy, this Saints offense is a well oiled machine. Brees doesn’t have as much zip on the ball as he used to but even shorter routes and screen passes to Kamara have worked for New Orleans. The team is averaging 30 points per game this season and when right, is still one of the top units in the league.
Trubisky could be in for a rough day
The Bears went back to Mitchell Trubisky in Week 12 when Nick Foles was injured, and while he was able to put together a 3-3 record and get the Bears into the playoffs, the offense is still lacking consistency to keep up with the Saints.
The Bears won games against the Texans, Vikings and Jaguars, while losing to the Lions and the Packers twice, convincingly. Now, Trubisky will be tasked with commanding an offense against one of the best defenses in the league.
The Saints' defensive line is one of the most imposing in the league, stopping both the run and getting to the quarterback. New Orleans is top five in the NFL in opponent rushing success rate and third in passing success rate, according to SharpFootballStats. They are also third in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders, so it could be a rough afternoon for both Trubisky and running back David Montgomery.
The Bears' offense has shown some bright spots since going back to Trubisky, but has done it against some of the weakest defenses in the league. That won't be the case on Sunday. In the first meeting between these two teams back on Nov. 1, the Saints held Foles to just 5.1 yards per pass attempt and registered five sacks in a 26-23 win.
Is the spread too high?
At -10, I do not plan on playing the side, but if the line drops to -9.5, I’ll be on New Orleans. That’s where I start to see some value on the home side.
Double digit favorites have been strong bets in the postseason. Favorites of 10 or more are 11-6 against the spread since 2005, and the Bears do seem outmatched in this one. The BetQL model sees value on the over 47, projecting 48.5 points in this matchup.