Ranking first-round NBA playoff matchups by upset potential

Luka Doncic will make big shots in this series, and it's very easy to see him winning the Mavericks a game. But he needs help, and despite a good season from Kristaps Porzingis and some solid role players around him, it's probably just not enough to take on the tall task of stopping Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, arguably two of the top 15 players in the NBA. We saw exactly that last year, even when George was playing poorly. Sure, Porzingis only played in three games, but the Mavs were 1-2 in that span and simply couldn't stop what the Clippers were sending their way for the large majority of the game.

What the Clippers also have this year that they didn't have last year is a full roster of playoff veterans. Serge Ibaka has won a Finals and has been a part of a whopping 144 playoff contests, averaging 28.3 minutes per appearance. Midseason acquisition Rajon Rondo is about as seasoned as it gets at the guard position, with two rings and 121 playoff games in his past. Nicolas Batum has 39 games under his belt. These sorts of players go a long way in giving certain teams the upper hand, and combined with the star power of Leonard and George, it seems like a long shot to expect that they'll go down to the less-experienced and less-talented Mavs.

It happened last year in the semifinals, so why shouldn't it happen again? No one will forget the 4-1 blowout in the bubble, when Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the end of the series and watched his team go down in Game 5. With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo doing their thing, anything is possible.

However, things seem to point more favorably toward the Bucks this time around. Despite the fact that Khris Middleton is listed as day-to-day, the team is primarily in good health and will be well-rested and ready to go. Jrue Holiday is far superior to the third option that the Bucks had to offer last season and with 30 games of playoff experience under his belt, he'll be a calm, cool and collected presence for Milwaukee. Meanwhile, the Heat are lacking one Jae Crowder, who averaged 15.2 points and 6.0 rebounds per game in the series last year and was often tasked with guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Perhaps more importantly, the Heat just aren't the same team as they were in 2019-20, and pretty much every metric points to that. Certain players, like Tyler Herro, just haven't been the same as we saw in the bubble. Their 0.0 net rating ranked at the league average, which is a far cry from the seventh-ranked +3.0 net rating from last year. And the Bucks, despite being a quieter force this season, finished with 120.1 points per game, better than their league-best figure last year and the highest average of any team in the last 30 years.

You could say that this is a series that favors the Knicks. You could say that the Hawks are clearly more talented. And you could also view this one as pretty tightly knotted, as should be the case with games between No. 4 and No. 5 seeds. That last perspective is the view that I'm taking with me into the series. Their net ratings are practically identical, despite the fact that New York is based around defense and the Hawks' attack, on paper, looks to be one that primarily leans toward the offense (and Clint Capela). The Knicks swept the Hawks this season in the three games that they played, but Atlanta is at relatively good health despite the news that Cam Reddish may miss the whole first round.

Just look at the talent though. Sure, the Knicks have an All-Star leader in Julius Randle and dangerous scorers like Derrick Rose and R.J. Barrett. But Atlanta just boasts so many more intriguing names, with guys who weren't there last year like Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela making massive, massive differences to the team's success. Everything is clicking for the Hawks under Nate McMillan, who helped lead them to the best record in the East in the span since he was hired. And as defensive-minded as the Knicks are, all it takes is one of the many weapons featured in Atlanta — Bogdanovic, Capela, Trae Young, John Collins, De'Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams and the list goes on — getting hot for the squad to go on a nice run.

I really don't see either team as a favorite, but the Hawks certainly come off as the more talented roster. If there's one series that's hard to predict, it's this one.

It's usually hard to say that the team with the near-guaranteed league MVP isn't a favorite in the first round of the playoffs. However, Nikola Jokic lost his right-hand man in Jamal Murray, and that's not an easy pair of shoes to fill. The Nuggets have done just fine without him, and that's because a) they have Nikola Jokic, obviously, and b) they have some solid depth around the board. Michael Porter Jr. is the potential Most Improved Player for the 2021 season, and adding Aaron Gordon at the deadline obviously bolsters the team in areas where they had previously been lacking.

So, no, Denver is not going to go down easily, and they may not go down in the first round at all. But Portland isn't a team that should be considered an underdog in the series despite their lower seeding. Damian Lillard was an MVP candidate in his own right, and CJ McCollum is better than the second option that the Nuggets have to offer. You can't rely on Porter Jr.'s offensive consistency as much as you can in the case of McCollum, and the same goes for options further down the roster in Denver. Meanwhile, Portland has trusty weapons like Norman Powell and Carmelo Anthony to get buckets in tight spots. And if it comes down to the wire, which very well may be the case, there's no one in this series — let alone the entire league — that you'd rather have taking the final shot than Lillard.

This one's also a toss up, but as long as Portland can stay competitive, I trust them closing out a tight game.

No disrespect to the Suns here, who are deservingly the No. 2 seed and boast an incredible backcourt of Chris Paul and Devin Booker. They're solid up and down the roster with an extremely potent offensive attack with a number of options and the defensive chops to stick with the best of them. Monty Williams has coached exceptionally well, and the offseason acquisition of Paul turned out to be as productive a move as any imaginable.

But when you're dealing with the defending champions who are (for now) at full health, with the best 1-2 punch in basketball in LeBron James and Anthony Davis, you simply can't be the favorites in the series. Injuries are the reason that the Lakers, who were simply coasting through the earlier parts of the season, find themselves as the No. 7 seed. And no, they admittedly didn't look great in the play-in game against the Warriors. But basing your prediction of this series' outcome based on the seeding is a foolish mistake.