A Gulf disturbance now has an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next two days, and forecasters say it is too early to say where it would come ashore.
The National Hurricane Center said early Tuesday that a trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The agency, which is tracking the system as Invest 92L, put the formation chance at 80 percent through 48 hours and 80 percent over the next seven days. Conditions look only marginally favorable, but a tropical depression is likely within a couple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeast through the middle of the week, then turn north. Specific impacts on the northern Gulf Coast are not yet clear. Interests there should keep watching.
If it reaches tropical-storm strength, the next name on the Atlantic list is Isaias, pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs. A tropical storm needs a closed center and sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Hurricane hunters are tentatively scheduled to fly into the system Wednesday afternoon, according to weather.com.
2 pm EDT - Here is an update on Invest #92L in the Gulf. Visit https://t.co/GrztW6nozt for details. https://t.co/2yvwSZ9w7F
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 5, 2026
For North Texas, this is not a direct threat right now. KPRC chief meteorologist Anthony Yanez said early guidance is steering the center toward the Louisiana-to-Florida stretch, with the heavier rain shifting that way as the system moves north and east. Some guidance shows 5 to 9.5 inches from Louisiana into parts of Florida. He put only a 20 percent chance of rain in the Houston area from Friday through Sunday, mainly if a stray rainband reaches Southeast Texas. A cold front moving through Southeast Texas is expected to help block the system from coming north into the upper Texas coast.
The Gulf is very warm, roughly 84 to 88 degrees, which can fuel a developing storm. Increasing wind shear farther north could also weaken it. No watches or warnings are in effect for Texas. The track and strength should come into better focus once a center forms.
LISTEN on the Audacy App
Tell your Smart Speaker to "PLAY 1080 KRLD"
Sign Up to receive our KRLD Insider Newsletter for more news
Follow us on Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | YouTube
