J.P. Morgan estimates that U.S. production of humanoid robots could reach 300,000 to 400,000 units by 2030 and about 1.5 million units by 2035 as the industry moves from demonstrations to commercial use, Reuters reported Thursday.
Labor shortages, improving costs and rising production capacity are driving wider adoption in manufacturing, logistics and warehousing, where companies are looking to automate repetitive tasks. The bank said robot costs are nearing parity with labor costs, and that running humanoids across multiple shifts could generate roughly $100,000 in annual savings per customer.
Near-term growth remains limited by supply constraints. J.P. Morgan identified hands, actuators, artificial intelligence systems and overall production capacity as key bottlenecks. Most U.S. manufacturers other than Tesla are targeting annual production of 10,000 to 30,000 units.
Among U.S. makers, the bank highlighted Tesla’s Optimus, Agility Robotics’ Digit, Boston Dynamics’ Atlas, Figure AI’s robots and Apptronik’s Apollo. Component suppliers such as those making actuators, motors and vision systems represent the largest near-term opportunity, with that market expected to approach $30 billion by 2035.
The Trump administration’s finding that imported robotics and industrial machinery pose national security risks could lead to tariffs or other steps aimed at boosting domestic production, according to the analysis. Value is expected to shift over time toward robot makers and platform integrators as volumes rise.
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