The Texas Rangers open their final regular season series against the Mariners tonight at T-Mobile Park in Seattle with a spot in the postseason all but assured.
The Rangers enter tonight's game with a 2 1/2 game lead over the Astros and a four-game lead over the Mariners, with four games left to play.
All the Rangers need to do to secure a postseason spot is to win just one out of the next four or for the Astros to lose one of their three games against the Diamondbacks.
In fact, given the current standings and tiebreaker scenarios, there is only one way the Rangers fail to make the postseason:
• The Rangers get swept by the Mariners
• The Astros win exactly two out of three against the Diamondbacks
• The Blue Jays win three out of their final four games (tonight vs. the Yankees and the next three vs. the Rays)
If all that happens, the Rangers, Astros and Mariners would all finish at 89-73 and the Blue Jays would finish 90-72.
That would give the Blue Jays the second wild card, leaving two spots for the three AL West contenders.
The first three-way tiebreaker is the best head-to-head record among the tied teams. Going into tonight's games, they stand as follows:
• Rangers 12-10
• Astros 13-13
• Mariners 10-12
Thus, if the Mariners sweep the Rangers, they would improve to 14-12 in games vs. the Rangers and Astros and would win the AL West.
The Rangers would fall to 12-14 in games vs. the Astros and the Mariners and would "enjoy" the postseason from the comforts of their own living rooms.
The above scenario is the only way the Mariners can win the AL West; the only way the Astros can win the AL West is by sweeping the Diamondbacks and for the Rangers to win no more than one out of their four games vs. the Mariners.
Anything short of those two scenarios would give the Rangers the AL West title, and they would get a bye into the Division Series.
Going into today's action, there was a slim chance that the Rangers could host the Wild Card round, if they won the division and finished with the same record as the Twins.
However, the Twins' 2-1 loss this afternoon to the Athletics ended that possibility.
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