Prediction market payout after Maduro’s capture puts spotlight on event wagers

CARACAS, VENEZUELA - JANUARY 6: A man holds a portrait of Nicolas Maduro during a march in his support and his wife Cilia Flores after their capture by U.S. forces, on January 6, 2026 in Caracas, Venezuela. U.S. President Donald Trump announced on January 3 that his country's military had launched a large-scale attack on Venezuela and captured its President Nicolas Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores. As citizens start to struggle with the lack of supplies and water, the National Assembly has appointed Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as Acting President. (Photo by Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)
CARACAS, VENEZUELA - JANUARY 6: A man holds a portrait of Nicolas Maduro during a march in his support and his wife Cilia Flores after their capture by U.S. forces, on January 6, 2026 in Caracas, Venezuela. U.S. President Donald Trump announced on January 3 that his country's military had launched a large-scale attack on Venezuela and captured its President Nicolas Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores. As citizens start to struggle with the lack of supplies and water, the National Assembly has appointed Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as Acting President. (Photo by Jesus Vargas/Getty Images) Photo credit (Photo by Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)

An anonymous trader on the Polymarket prediction market pocketed more than $400,000 after betting that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be ousted, drawing attention to how these online event contracts operate.

The bulk of the profitable wagers were placed just hours before President Trump announced the U.S. operation that led to Maduro’s capture, prompting scrutiny over timing and calls for clearer oversight of prediction markets.

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Featured Image Photo Credit: (Photo by Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)