There might be more than two years to go until the 2028 presidential election, but that doesn’t stop speculation about who might be running for the nation’s highest office. New polling from Emerson College shows that two contenders have recently risen to the top of the potential pack of potential candidates.
They are current Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the Republican side and Pete Buttigieg, former transportation secretary, on the Democratic side. According to the Emerson poll results released Thursday, Vice President JD Vance is the top potential GOP at 36%, but Rubio is a close second at 35%. Buttigieg lead the Democratic side at 18%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 16%.
This national survey conducted from May 24 through May 25.
Buttigieg, 44, is a graduate of Harvard and Oxford universities and served as an intelligence officer in the U.S. Navy. He’s from South Bend, Ind., and rose to prominence as the mayor of the city. He was known there as “Mayor Pete” before he became a Democratic candidate in the 2020 election.
After former President Joe Biden won the election against current President Donald Trump, he appointed Buttigieg as transportation secretary. If elected as president, Buttigieg would become the first openly gay commander-in-chief of the U.S. He and his husband Chasten Glezman are the parents of twins.
Rubio, 55, is a graduate of the University of Florida and he earned a law degree at the University of Miami. He began his career in public service as a city commissioner in West Miami. Then, Rubio became a member of the Florida House of Representatives and in 2010 he won a seat in the U.S. Senate.
Trump appointed Rubio to serve as secretary of state last year. If elected as president, Rubio – the son of Cuban immigrants – would be the first person of Latino descent to be commander-in-chief of the U.S. He and his wife Jeanette have four children.
“The Republican primary has shifted significantly since February, when 52% supported Vance and 20% Rubio; the potential 2028 contenders now compete evenly,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, this week. “Rubio has found support among Republican Primary voters over 50, who support him by a six-point margin over Vance, 41% to 35%, while Vance leads the younger Republican vote under 50, 37% to 26%.”
When Audacy covered potential Democratic 2028 candidates last summer, June Echelon polling results showed that Buttigieg was in second place behind former Vice President Kamala Harris. However, Echelon polling from the following month found that Newsom had moved to second place.
This February, Audacy reported that Newsom appeared to tease a presidential run. At the time, Polling and betting market data put him at the top of the Democratic candidate list.
“Since February 2026, Buttigieg’s support increased two points, from 16% to 18%, Newsom’s support decreased four points, from 20% to 16%,” said Emerson of its recent polling.
Interestingly, two popular betting prediction markets don’t currently show Buttigieg as a top potential Democratic candidate. Both Kalshi and Polymarket showed Newsom as the top candidate as of Saturday, with Harris and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) ranking high on both lists and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) ranking high on Polymarket’s list.
Kalshi and Polymarket data did, however, reflect Emerson’s findings that Rubio is gaining traction as a potential candidate. He was ranked in second place as the potential GOP candidate by both sites at 29% to Vance’s 32% on Kalshi and at 25.7% to Vance’s 31.4% on Polymarket.
Though he was in second place among the GOP hopefuls, Kalshi actually had Rubio at the lead of the overall 2028 candidates pack at 19% compared to Vance’s 17% and Newsom’s 15% as of Saturday. Polymarket had him in third place at 14% behind Vance’s 18.4% and Newsom’s 16%.
Before we get to the next presidential election, the midterm elections are coming up this November. Emerson’s polling found that Democrats currently have a nine-point advantage in the midterms, leading the generic Republican 50% to 41%.
Still, the results showed that “a majority of voters think the Democratic Party (58%) and Republican Party (59%) are on the wrong track rather than headed in the right direction,” Emerson said.
