2021 AFC West Preview: Key storylines, X-factors and more

Biggest storyline heading into season?
Did Brett Veach’s big offensive line overhaul work? Can Creed Humphrey, Lucas Niang, and Trey Smith – all rookies – be not just reliable, but an upgrade over last year’s line? They’ll be okay as long as Pat Mahomes is playing, but it’s easy to be skeptical about the line plan from the surface.

Who will be the X-factor?
Rookie tight end Noah Gray. Now that you’ve already scoffed, hear it out: if Noah Gray, as a rookie, is even half as productive as Kelce is this season, then the Chiefs’ offense is probably operating at historically great levels. They’re so good that Noah Gray is the X-factor for the Chiefs simply because he allows them the possibility to create a historically great offense. That’s the Chiefs’ context. Either that or it’s Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs will make the playoffs if…
Everything goes to plan. Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill is Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce is Travis Kelce, things will probably go just fine. Being better at consistently rushing the passer would make things a whole lot easier on everyone, but, again [gestures at Mahomes].

The Chiefs will miss the playoffs if…
They’re not going to miss the playoffs, but theoretically, Mahomes missing 10+ games would do it. If he plays, see you in the AFC Championship game. -Cam Ellis, 670 The Score

Biggest storyline heading into season?
Can the Raiders break out of mediocrity under Jon Gruden? The last two seasons under Gruden, the Raiders have gone 7-9 and 8-8, respectively, begging the question: will this team be good enough to make the playoffs? Derek Carr played some of his best football last year and the Raiders have some promising young weapons in guys like Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs. The defense added the likes of veterans Yannick Ngakoue and Gerald McCoy under new coordinator Gus Bradley as it tries to improve upon its ranking of 30th in sacks last year.
 
Who will be the X-factor?
The offensive line has undergone a major overhaul this offseason. Trent Brown, Rodney Hudson and Gabe Jackson are out while rookies Alex Leatherwood and John Simpson are in and Andre James, a third-year veteran and first-time starter, is in at center. Will such a young, new offensive line be able to give Carr the protection he needs to play at a high level? How this offensive line fares could dictate how the offense and, ultimately, team fares.
 
The Raiders will make the playoffs if…the offensive line comes together quickly and gives Carr the protection to continue to play at a Pro Bowl level and the new additions on defense can put pressure on the quarterback that they were unable to consistently do last season.
 
The Raiders will miss the playoffs if…the offensive line struggles and Carr is not the same QB as last year. The offense is currently a strength of this team, if it cannot be that strength with Carr playing at a high level, the Raiders will not be a playoff team. - John Healy, Audacy

Biggest storyline heading into season?
Can Justin Herbert take this team to the next level? The Chargers quarterback tossed a rookie record 31 touchdown passes last season and threw for 4,336 yards as he quickly put himself on the map as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. While his stats were nice, Herbert must now prove he can lead the team into the postseason and be the kind of difference-maker that quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have proven to be for their respective teams.
 
Who will be the X-factor?
Head coach Brandon Staley. The Chargers fired Anthony Lynn after underachieving in 2020 and will turn to a first-time head coach and former Rams defensive coordinator in Staley. The move was a bit surprising as Staley is just 38 years old and has a defensive background but will oversee a team that has the weapons to be one of the most explosive offenses in the league. The pressure will be on the first-year coach to find immediate success.
 
The Chargers will make the playoffs if… the offense reaches its full potential. We already saw what Herbert is capable of doing and the Chargers spent most of the offseason revamping the offensive line. Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Jared Cook are all extremely talented weapons for Herbert and if he gets the protection that’s need the Chargers offense could easily be one of the best in the NFL.
 
The Chargers will miss the playoffs if… Herbert regresses or misses time with an injury. The Chargers have plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball and Herbert has the ability to become a bonafide star in this league. If Herbert cannot duplicate his rookie season success the team will be in trouble. -John Healy, Audacy

Biggest storyline heading into season?
Is this Vic Fangio's last chance at a playoff berth before he's given the boot? The Broncos don't really look like a playoff team right now, if only because the quarterback situation is so unsteady. But if the defense falters, which should be Fangio's calling card and what the team will have to ride if it wants any chance at a postseason berth, will that spell the end of Fangio's short stint as the team's head coach?

Who will be the X-factor?
Teddy Bridgewater/Drew Lock. Whoever ends up playing quarterback the most. This defense should hypothetically be really, really good, but the team can't just rely on stopping their opponent. They've got to put up points somehow, and the quarterbacks are largely responsible. There's a talented receiving corps, a good pair of running backs, and a solid if unspectacular offensive line. That, along with the defense, should be enough for a competent quarterback to pick up a good handful of wins.

The Broncos will make the playoffs if...
The defense is a top-three unit in the league. It was a bottom-10 unit in the league last year in terms of points allowed, but there's just way too much talent there now — adding Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby and Patrick Surtain II to the cornerback room makes it an absolutely loaded position, and the return of Von Miller is pretty helpful as well — for that to happen again. Then again, it comes down to that X-factor we went over before: will the quarterback play be passable enough (no pun intended) even with a dominant defense? However, it seems more likely that you're going to get what you're going to get out of the passers. The defense has to rebound, though.

The Broncos will miss the playoffs if...the defense isn't absolutely dominant. For all those reasons above. -Jordan Cohn, Audacy