SOUTH JERSEY (KYW Newsradio) — A congressional race in South Jersey is getting a little tighter as Election Day approaches on Nov. 8.
Democratic incumbent Andy Kim’s 3rd Congressional District was downgraded from “likely” to “leaning” in his favor over Republican Bob Healey in the most recent Cook Political Report that evaluates all of the country’s House and Senate races.
“I think they’ve finally come around to seeing what many of us in New Jersey have seen, which is that this race is getting close,” said Ben Dworkin, director at Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship.
He says there are a few keys to watch in this district, with turnout being the most important, and one town could ultimately decide the race.
Related
“Andy Kim has to win Burlington County, and he’s got to win Hamilton Township,” said Dworkin.
“For Bob Healey, he needs to run up the numbers in Monmouth County, which is the most Republican part of this new district, and he needs to win Hamilton. About 90,000 people live in Hamilton. It’s very much a bellwether, working-class district.”
Dworkin said it “can go either way.”
A new district map gave Kim a significant advantage, but general election momentum is favoring Republicans, according to a new report from Stockton University’s Hughes Center for Public Policy.
Related
Polls for early voting are open in New Jersey and mail-in ballots are coming in. Dworkin cautions people not to look too much into analysis of early polling numbers that may come out.
“We really don’t know how these people have voted until they open up these ballots and count them,” Dworkin said.
Overall, New Jersey has 12 congressional districts with 10 Democrats and two Republicans currently in office. All 12 are on this year’s ballot, and Republicans are favored to pick up one seat.
Rep. Tom Malinowski’s NJ-07 is listed as “lean Republican” by the Cook Report.