In recent years, the Patriots’ rivalry with the Jets has been anything but competitive. In their last 40 meetings, the Patriots are 32-8 against their division rival, including a 26-4 record over their last 30 games, an 18-2 mark over their last 20, and an 8-2 record over their last 10.
The Jets’ struggles in Foxborough have been just as absurd. Since Gillette Stadium opened in 2002, they have lost 21 of their 26 games there.
The level of dominance over this division foe is almost ridiculous. Yet, despite years of beating up on the Jets, the Patriots aren’t changing their approach.
“We’re preparing for them just like any other game,” captain Kevin Byard said. “I know the record says the last 20 games we’ve won like 18 of them or something like that, but this is a very talented team. A lot of new pieces on this team than from years past.”
The Jets have certainly brought in plenty of new pieces. They made 12 additions via free agency, headlined by five-time All-Pro Demario Davis, edge rusher Joseph Ossai, and safety Dane Belton. They also made four trades, including deals for veteran quarterback Geno Smith and three-time All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. In the draft, they added three first-round picks: edge rusher David Bailey (No. 2 overall), tight end Kenyon Sadiq (No. 16 overall), and wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. (No. 30 overall).
The Jets are still in the midst of a rebuild, with Smith serving as a bridge quarterback, but they have made some strides in the second year under head coach Aaron Glenn. They are already one win away from matching last season’s total of three victories.
“They’re physical. I think they have tenacity,” quarterback Drake Maye said. “I think they’ve got, I wouldn’t say a new ferociousness, but you can see the difference on tape from last year. They have some new faces, some new mentality. I think they’re buying into how Coach [Aaron] Glenn wants to play defense, and I think you respect that. You can see that on film.”
Still, the Patriots should have the advantage in this matchup and should take care of business accordingly. Given their history against the Jets, anything less than a convincing win would be disappointing. Here are three things to watch as New England looks to extend its winning streak to three games.
A big week for the pass rush?
Geno Smith, who led the NFL with 17 interceptions last season after throwing 15 in 2024, has yet to throw a pick this season. He is one of three quarterbacks to start every game without an interception, alongside Jared Goff of the Lions and C.J. Stroud of the Texans.
Smith has been much more careful with the football this season, ranking third in the NFL in completion percentage at 69.4% among quarterbacks with at least four starts, trailing only Joe Burrow (71.4%) and Lamar Jackson (70.8%). However, that approach has also led to him holding onto the ball longer, giving opposing pass-rushers more time to get to him.
“He’s holding the ball,” Byard said. “I think that gives some really good opportunity to our pass-rushers to be able to get some forced fumbles, some sacks, stuff like that.”
Smith has been pressured on 43.9% of his dropbacks this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. He has been sacked on 9.8% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the league, and his 16 total sacks are the fourth-most in the NFL. Those sacks have resulted in a league-high 134 yards lost. Smith has also fumbled four times, losing two.
That presents a significant opportunity for the Patriots’ pass rush this weekend.
“Anytime a quarterback holds the ball and gives you a chance to rush and get to those secondary rushes, you always got a chance,” Dre’Mont Jones said. “So, we’ve got to do a good job of being relentless, per usual, and things will come in our favor. But, you know, we’ve got to will it out. We can’t just do the right thing and expect it to happen. We got to give our effort.”
Added Gabe Jacas, “I think that’s a definite advantage for us, Geno holding onto the ball. We’ve just got to take advantage of that and get after them up front.”
The Patriots’ pass rush has been a pleasant surprise this season, particularly their group of edge rushers. Led by Elijah Ponder, who is putting together a breakout season with 4.5 sacks, the Patriots have recorded at least one sack in every game this season, totaling 11.
Their 6.1% sack rate ranks 15th in the NFL. There is still room for improvement, but the group has already performed better than many might have expected entering the season
“We’re off to a pretty good start,” Jones said. “We have a lot more to do.”
This could be a big week for the Patriots’ pass rush, which has a chance to take advantage of Smith’s tendency to hold onto the ball and make a major impact.
Another big test for the offensive line
Last week against the Raiders, the Patriots’ offensive line put together its best performance of the season, particularly in pass protection, against a defense that entered the game ranked among the top five in the NFL in sacks.
According to PFF, Drake Maye was kept clean on 65.8% of his dropbacks against the Raiders. When a quarterback as talented as Maye has a clean pocket and time to throw, good things tend to happen, particularly downfield.
Maye completed eight of 11 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns on throws traveling more than 10 air yards, according to Next Gen Stats. He also completed five passes of at least 25 yards. Overall, Maye finished 26 of 34 for 374 yards and four touchdowns.
The offensive line played a major role in that performance. It will need to deliver another strong outing against an aggressive Jets defense.
New York has recorded 17 sacks this season, tied for the third-most in the NFL. Their eight sacks last week against the Cleveland Browns were the most in a single game in franchise history since the statistic became official in 1982. They also posted a 59.1% pressure rate, the highest of any team in Week 5.
The Jets have a 40.6% pressure rate this season, the seventh-highest in the league. Rookie edge rusher David Bailey has been a major part of that success, recording 26 pressures through five weeks, the fifth-most in the NFL. Since 2018, only Nick Bosa, who recorded 27 pressures through five weeks as a rookie in 2019, has had more among rookies.
According to Next Gen Stats, Bailey has lined up over the right tackle on 83.3% of his snaps, putting him across from Patriots right tackle Morgan Moses. Moses has allowed pressure on 13.9% of his pass-blocking snaps (24 pressures on 173 pass blocks), the third-highest rate among right tackles with at least 50 pass-blocking snaps.
“He’s fast, explosive, instinctive. He can bend, has a really good get off, and is able to win at the top and corner. He uses his get off, so just like every week, we’ll have to be very conscious of the front,” Mike Vrabel said of Bailey. “They do a nice job interior-wise. They’re big, they’re physical. Then on the edges, they can create some havoc.”
Bailey is far from the Jets’ only threat. Nine different players have recorded a sack this season, including three defensive backs, and five players have multiple sacks.
That production, particularly three defensive backs recording a sack, reflects New York’s aggressive, blitz-heavy approach. The Jets have blitzed on 39% of opposing dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. They blitzed on 52.8% of dropbacks against the Bears in Week 4 and 47.7% against the Browns in Week 5.
“They bring a lot of different blitzes. A lot of exotic blitzes,” Rhamondre Stevenson said on the Jets’ blitzing. “Everybody gets a turn. They’re trying to confuse the running back, confuse the offensive line, and get a guy free to the quarterback.”
The Patriots have handled the blitz relatively well this season, allowing just three sacks and posting a 6.0% sack rate against blitzes. However, New England could face an added challenge Sunday if rookie Caleb Lomu makes his first start at left tackle.
Handling the Jets’ pressure will be a team effort.
“It just takes all 11,” Moses said. “Just doing what we need to do, man. It’s going to take all 11. The running backs, tight ends. They’re very disruptive. They play together. That’s the hardest part: they play together as a unit.”
Quarterback Drake Maye has done his part to combat opposing blitzes.
He has completed 33 of 46 passes against the blitz this season (71.7%), the third-highest completion percentage in the NFL behind C.J. Stroud (72.1%) and Patrick Mahomes (71.9%). He has thrown four touchdowns and one interception in those situations.
Over the last two weeks, Maye has thrown three touchdowns without an interception against the blitz while taking just one sack.
“Their front is very disruptive,” offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said. “They can rush, but they also blitz. I mean, they blitz and blitz and blitz. So if you don’t block the blitz, you’re going to have a hard time.”
We will see if the Jets adjust their approach against Maye on Sunday.
Welcome back, Christian Gonzalez
After missing the last two games with a shoulder injury, Christian Gonzalez returned to the practice field this week and carries no injury designation heading into Sunday’s game.
“It’s always good to have Zero out there,” defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr said. “He’s a hell of a player. He’s been flying around. Good energy. Good communication with the guys. He doesn’t look like he missed a step. We’re excited to have him out there, for sure.”
Gonzalez faces a challenge right off the bat in Garrett Wilson, who is tied for sixth in the NFL in receptions (31) and ranks 11th in receiving yards (374). He has topped 100 receiving yards in two of his five games.
“Everything,” Gonzalez said when asked what Wilson does well. “He can play all the spots on the offense. They move him around a lot. Extremely athletic. He makes highlight catches all the time. So, a ton of respect for who he is and the player he is.”
This will be the fourth time Gonzalez and Wilson face each other.
According to Next Gen Stats, Gonzalez covered Wilson on 51 routes in their previous three matchups, with Wilson totaling eight receptions on 14 targets for 72 yards and a touchdown. Not too bad.
Another factor to watch with Gonzalez back is whether the Patriots increase their blitz rate.
Before Gonzalez’s injury, the Patriots blitzed at rates of 44.4% (Week 1 at Seattle), 39.1% (Week 2 vs. Pittsburgh) and 50.0% (Week 3 at Jacksonville), averaging 44.5%. That number dropped significantly after Gonzalez’s injury, with the Patriots blitzing at rates of 28.6% (Week 4 at Buffalo) and 22.5% (Week 5 vs. Las Vegas), averaging 25.5%.
With Gonzalez back, the Patriots can play more man coverage and mix in more blitzes.
