7 thoughts on Bruins-Sabres first-round series

The Boston Bruins closed out the regular season Tuesday night with a dominant 4-0 win over the New Jersey Devils, capping off a 100-point season just one year after a miserable 76-point campaign.

Next stop: Stanley Cup playoffs. With the win, the Bruins locked themselves into the Eastern Conference's first wild card spot, setting up a best-of-seven first-round matchup with the Atlantic Division-winning Buffalo Sabres.

This should be a fun one. Bruins-Sabres is an old Adams Division rivalry, with eight previous playoff meetings in their history. The only teams the Bruins have faced more in the postseason are the Montreal Canadiens (34 series), Toronto Maple Leafs (17) and New York Rangers (10). The Bruins have won six of those eight previous series, including the most recent one in the opening round in 2010.

It's also two diehard hockey markets in the Northeast, and therefore a matchup that will have TV execs salivating over ratings. And, of course, there's a built-in Boston-Buffalo rivalry that extends beyond hockey thanks to the Patriots and Bills.

As of Wednesday morning, the series schedule has not yet been announced. Game 1 will be in Buffalo either Saturday or Sunday.

Until then, here are seven thoughts on the series:

Bruins have more playoff experience

One year out of the playoffs might have been miserable for Bruins fans, but that's nothing compared to what Buffalo fans have endured. The Sabres are back in the dance for the first time in 15 years, finally bringing to an end what was easily the longest active postseason drought in the NHL.

As you might imagine, their core doesn't have a lot of playoff experience. Most of their best players – including leading scorer Tage Thompson; top defensemen Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Mattias Samuelsson; and goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – will be playing their first career playoff games this weekend. A few notable exceptions would be forwards Jason Zucker (52 playoff games) and Alex Tuch (went to a Stanley Cup final with Vegas), and defenseman Bowen Byram (won a Stanley Cup with Colorado).

The Bruins' top players, meanwhile, have all been here before. David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy are closing in on 100 career playoff games. Hampus Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov, Viktor Arvidsson and Sean Kuraly are all over 50. Jeremy Swayman was excellent two years ago in his first go-round as a full-time playoff starter. There is still some inexperience, especially in youngsters Fraser Minten, Marat Khusnutdinov and James Hagens, but not nearly as much as Buffalo.

Will experience matter? Playoff hockey is a different beast than the regular season, and most players would tell you there is indeed an adjustment required this time of year. Bruins coach Marco Sturm, while praising the Sabres as a team that's "for real" Tuesday night, also identified their inexperience as something he hopes his team can take advantage of.

"It's going to be hard, it's going to be a good test, but also a lot of players on their side have never been in that situation," Sturm said. "So, we have to take advantage of that."

Bruins won the season series

The Bruins went 3-1-0 against Buffalo this season, which may or may not mean anything. At the very least, it could give them a bit more confidence than if they were playing, say, the Tampa Bay Lightning, against whom they went 0-3-1 this season.

The Bruins beat the Sabres twice in October (3-1 and then 4-3 in overtime), which might as well be a lifetime ago. The Sabres won 4-1 on Dec. 27, a weird situation given that the Bruins had to fly out that morning because of the league's Christmas break, and then had that flight delayed by weather.

The most relevant meeting came a few weeks ago, when the Bruins picked up a big 4-3 overtime win in Buffalo to kick off a four-game winning streak that pretty much cemented their spot in the playoffs. Casey Mittelstadt tied the game with 6:00 left in regulation, and Pavel Zacha scored the winner 38 seconds into overtime.

By the way, Mittelstadt missed Tuesday's game and Zacha left after the first period, but Sturm said both were for "personal reasons, but in a good way," and that both would be available for Game 1.

The goalie matchup

We know who's starting for the Bruins: Jeremy Swayman. And we know the Bruins are going to need Swayman to be on his game to go on any kind of run this spring. To that end, Swayman's 21-save shutout Tuesday night should have him feeling good again after a mini-skid late in the year that saw him lose four straight starts.

Looking at the season as a whole, though, Swayman was excellent. He should be a Vezina Trophy finalist, although we'll see if the league's general managers (who vote on the Vezina) agree. Swayman went 31-18-4 with a .908 save percentage and 2.71 goals-against average, tying for fourth in the league in wins. He also finished second in goals saved above expected (+28.8), just a hair behind Washington's Logan Thompson (+29.3).

The Sabres, meanwhile, rotated between Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Alex Lyon most of the season, and really got quality goaltending from both. Luukkonen probably earned the Game 1 start with a strong finish, going 11-2-1 with a .918 save percentage after the Olympics. Lyon, whose three career playoff starts came against Boston in 2023 when he was with Florida, missed the final week of the regular season with a minor injury, but is expected to be ready for the playoffs.

The Bruins probably need goaltending to be a clear advantage if they're going to win this series. On paper, Swayman provides that. Of course, playoff hockey isn't played on paper, though.

Sabres have been red-hot at 5-on-5

In terms of 5-on-5 goal differential, these have been two of the best teams in the NHL this season. The Sabres' plus-37 at 5-on-5 ranks third, while the Bruins are tied for fourth at plus-32. Since Jan. 1, they're first and second, with Buffalo at plus-36 and Boston at plus-35.

If you drill down further to post-Olympics, though, you start to see some separation. The Sabres are plus-27 in 24 games since then, seven goals better than any other team. The Bruins are ninth at plus-11 in 25 games.

The Sabres have also played more sustainable 5-on-5 hockey as the season has gone on. Both teams are just under 50% Corsi (shot attempts for vs. shot attempts against) on the season, but the Sabres jump up to 52.3% post-Olympics while the Bruins remain at 48.9%.

It will be fascinating to see how this series plays out 5-on-5. Both teams are better off the rush than the cycle, but usually there are fewer rush chances in playoff hockey. Which team can establish offensive-zone time could go a long way towards deciding the series.

Will Bruins' top line get going?

One thing that would really help the Bruins' 5-on-5 game: Better play from their top line of David Pastrnak, Morgan Geekie and Elias Lindholm. That's assuming Sturm even starts the series with those three together, which is no guarantee.

Sturm put them back together last week, seemingly to give them one final chance to recapture their past chemistry before the playoffs. Things were looking up when Geekie registered a hat trick in Carolina on April 7, with all three goals coming at 5-on-5 with all three of those forwards on the ice.

Their play since then hasn't been particularly inspiring, though. In the Bruins' final three games, with that line on the ice, they got out-attempted 57-24, outshot 27-11, and outscored 3-1. Pastrnak and Geekie did connect for a goal early in Tuesday's game, with Fraser Minten still on the ice mid-line change instead of Lindholm.

Geekie-Lindholm-Pastrnak was a dominant line last season down the stretch, but that was a long time ago. This season, they just never found that magic. The Bruins got outscored 19-16 during their 348 minutes together at 5-on-5, and they had an expected goals share of just 45.4%.

The Bruins have had an excellent second line all season in Pavel Zacha, Viktor Arvidsson and Casey Mittelstadt, but they can't rely on that trio to be both the shutdown line and the scoring line. They need their top line to produce, and without giving goals away at the other end of the ice. If Pastrnak, Geekie and Lindholm can't do that, Sturm may need to have a short leash and break them up early in the series.

Will either power play heat up?

Both of these teams can score, but neither has been doing much of it on the power play recently. The Bruins' man advantage ranks ninth on the season at 23.4% while the Sabres are 19th at 19.8%, but both teams have been downright bad down the stretch. Since March 10, Boston is 27th at 15.2% and Buffalo is 29th at 14.9%.

If both power plays stay cold, then this is all a wash. But if one of them does start clicking, it could decide the series. Buffalo has a better penalty kill (fourth in the NHL at 82.1%) than Boston (24th at 77.0%), so the Bruins' power play faces the tougher challenge in that regard. The Bruins also take more penalties (league-leading 278 times shorthanded), so they better hope the old adage about less stuff getting called in the playoffs holds up.

What impact will Hagens have?

Potentially the biggest wild card in all of this. James Hagens, the Bruins' 19-year-old top prospect, has looked good in his first two NHL games. He has one point (an assist) and two shots on goal, but that doesn't tell the whole story at all.

Hagens has been a hound on pucks. His assist on Sunday came off a good forecheck, and then he recorded a game-high three takeaways on Tuesday. He's made things happen in transition, with his skating and puck-handling ability obvious for all to see. And, maybe most encouraging for a young, smaller player, he's been good on the boards in the defensive zone, something David Pastrnak singled out when asked about Hagens Tuesday night.

There's no guarantee Hagens is in the Game 1 lineup, but it certainly seems like he's earned the inside track. He's been good on the "New Kids" third line with Fraser Minten and Marat Khusnutdinov, with the Bruins registering a 61.4% expected goals share in 23:54 together. And, he hasn't even had a chance to show how much he can help the power play yet, because the Bruins haven't had a power play in the last two games.

Prediction: Bruins in 7. Goaltending and experience prove to be the difference.