There is an inconvenient truth facing Red Sox Nation: Chaim Bloom was right.
The Red Sox’ Ivy League-educated, analytics-loving chief baseball officer was excoriated earlier this offseason for not re-signing Xander Bogaerts. The beloved shortstop, who grew up in the Red Sox organization and was part of two World Series teams, inked an 11-year, $280 million contract with the Padres in December.
His departure was framed as another example of the Red Sox not retaining their homegrown stars. Bogaerts was inexplicably off to greener pastures, just like Jon Lester and Mookie Betts.
But the truth is, Bogaerts is a vast overpay at 11 years, $280 million. At 30 years old, it’s fair to say the four-time All-Star’s best days are behind him.
For Rafael Devers, the opposite is true.
The Red Sox signed Devers to a whopping 11-year, $331 million deal Wednesday — the largest contract in club history and sixth-biggest in MLB history. Devers is now one of 13 players to eclipse the $300 million plateau, and all of those deals have been inked over the last three winters.
Historically, players receive big free agent contracts based on past performance. But that’s not the case for Devers, who’s only 26 years old. This 11-year deal will carry him through his age-36 season.
Bogaerts, meanwhile, will be 41 when his contract expires.
Devers has established himself as one of the best left-handed hitters in baseball over the last four seasons, slashing .292/.352/.532 with an average of 27 home runs and 90 RBI. There’s no reason to think his production won’t stay steady, or even improve.
Since every $300 million contract has been signed over the last three years, it’s hard to estimate how Devers will fare in the latter years of his deal. But there are some blueprints, and they are promising.
The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey ran through some rough equivalents to Devers in a recent piece, with Miguel Cabrera’s first big contract with the Tigers serving as possibly his best comparison. Cabrera inked an eight-year, $152 deal with the Tigers in 2008 that ran from his age-25 to age-32 seasons. Over that period, Cabrera was one of the best hitters in baseball. The right-handed slugger won two AL MVP awards and led the league in home runs and OPS twice. His average slash line was .326/.406/.574 with 34 home runs and 115 RBI.
Another good comparison is Joey Votto, who signed a 10-year, $225 million contract in 2014 at age 30. In the first five years of the deal, Votto finished in the top 10 in NL MVP voting three times. Excluding last season (he only played in 91 games), Votto has slashed .290/.414/.501 with 22 home runs and 67 RBI throughout the length of the contract.
It’s true that the Red Sox could’ve afforded Devers and Bogaerts. But as WEEI’s Rob Bradford points out, even the richest teams are leery of having a couple of players account for large percentages of their payroll. Going off the Red Sox’ 2022 payroll ($229 million), Devers accounts for roughly 13.4 percent of money spent. That’s in line with other stars on big market teams: Aaron Judge accounts for 17 percent of the Yankees’ payroll, Bryce Harper accounts for 13 percent of the Phillies’ payroll, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander make up 14 percent of the Mets’ payroll.
If the Red Sox also paid Bogaerts $280 million, they would be spending about 24.8 percent on two players, going off of their 2022 payroll.
That would’ve potentially been handicapping, even for the deep-pocketed Sox.
Bloom still has a lot of goodwill to make up. The Betts trade was a disaster, and the Red Sox blew multiple opportunities to sign Bogaerts at a discounted rate. But outlaying $331 million for Devers is a start.
It just might be the best $300 million deal in the game.
