"I’d prefer good players, good fundamentals and good execution.” - Bill Belichick on analytics.
This past June was not the first time The Hoodie seemingly splashed water on the idea of analytics. He did it in 2019 and in 2016 as well. Each instance had the same thing in common: Belichick has never explicitly stated that the Patriots don’t use analytics. In fact, the Patriots have been one of the most analytically sound teams since Belichick has been in New England. One could make the case that the Patriots and their opponent this Sunday, the Cleveland Browns, are the two most analytically-savvy teams in the NFL.
The Browns’ use of analytics is far more in your face than that of the Patriots. Cleveland’s Chief Strategy Officer is literally Paul DePodesta. Yes, that Paul DePodesta. The right-hand man of Billy Beane and one of the subjects of the Michael Lewis novel Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. A Deep Thought-style supercomputer towering over FirstEnergy Stadium wouldn’t hurt, but the Browns made their point clear when they hired DePodesta.
The difference with the Patriots is that they don’t slap people in the face with their use of analytics. When it comes up, Belichick uses veiled statements about fundamentals. Belichick isn’t wrong, he’s just deflecting. Classic Bill.
Take for example one of the pillars of modern offensive analytics: designed passes to running backs out of the backfield. These are wildly effective plays, and the list of teams that do them most often won’t be surprising: the Chiefs, Saints, Rams, 49ers, and Patriots. All the teams with the top offensive minds in football do it the most -- interesting!
How often did the Patriots throw designed passes to running backs in 2020? They certainly tried early in the season, but more or less abandoned the concept as the season went on. Why? Because Cam Newton couldn’t make the throws. In the old Tom Brady days, the concept was a staple of Patriot offenses since the Kevin Faulk days. Deeeeeeeeead giveaway.
Another pillar of modern offensive analytics is passing out of formations with multiple tight ends. Off the top of your head, what team has been doing that the longest? The Patriots have always prioritized having two capable pass-catching tight ends on the roster. Going way back to Jermaine Wiggins, Christian Fauria, Daniel Graham, etc and up through Rob Gronkowski with either Aaron Hernandez or Martellus Bennett and now to Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith -- it’s not a coincidence.
But how often did the Patriots pass out of two tight end sets in 2020? Even though the concept is effective across the board, what NFL coach in their right mind would use it when the intended targets are Ryan Izzo and Devin Asiasi?
This is the push-pull between analytics and coaching. It’s a fine line that both Belichick and Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry are constantly straddling. Some of the moves Cleveland has made the last few seasons are wildly indicative that while they’re an analytically driven team, Stefanski and Berry both know when to make judgment calls that may fly in the face of the numbers.
Look no further than Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb. The Browns’ pass/run split this season is 51.16 percent pass and 48.84 percent run -- Cleveland runs the ball at the third-highest clip in the league. Analytics nerds everywhere spit out their oat milk coffee when they see that split. But this is a call Stefanksi has made based on what he sees in his personnel: Baker Mayfield is a good, not great quarterback, playing behind one of the three best run-blocking offensive lines in the league that blocks for a running back who has the third-most yards after contact in the NFL. Of course, the Browns run the ball as much as they do.
But let’s take it a step further and take the general manager's perspective into account. Analytics nerds often cringe at the idea of either spending a high draft pick on a running back or giving a running back a contract extension. There’s a lot of evidence as to why teams should never do either, but the Browns notably gave Chubb a three year, $36.6M extension this past August. This was actually a great deal for Cleveland as it didn’t tie them to Chubb for the length other running back extensions have and Chubb is only the sixth-highest paid running back in the league.
What Berry did there was send a message to the locker room and to incoming draft classes. How would Chubb’s teammates, or the next running back, perceive not extending a player of Chubb’s caliber? The next guy may come in and basically think there’s nothing they can do in this car crash per play sport and not give maximum effort. Even if there are numbers that indicate the Browns running game has been just fine whenever Chubb has missed games, there are no analytics for pissing people off.
Bill Belichick seemingly hasn’t always cared too much about that last point. Regardless, two different approaches to the same set of concepts will clash Sunday when Belichick and the Patriots face off against the Browns.
