Pats Nation is soaking up a three-game winning streak, but Bill Belichick’s team needs to solve a math problem.
The Patriots piled up 293 rushing yards over the last two weeks. The raw numbers seem great, but they averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. That isn’t exactly efficient. There are only four teams averaging less than 3.7 yards per pop on the season. So, why the issue? Well, The Chargers and The Panthers dared Mac Jones to beat them by making life awfully difficult for Damien Harris.
Harris saw eight-man boxes 40 percent of the time last week against the Panthers according to Next Gen Stats. The results were not good. Harris ran for just 30 yards on 15 carries (2 yards per carry). Brandon Staley’s defense showed Harris eight-man boxes 39.13 percent of the time. Harris ran for 80 yards, but on 23 carries (3.5 yards per carry). Teams are building a brick wall to stop Harris, and a blueprint has been established.
Jones has struggled with the extra attention on Harris.
Jones averaged just 178 passing yards against the Chargers and the Panthers. He completed just 58 percent of his passes over the last two games. Mac needs help. Tom Brady always had an outlet guy from Troy Brown to Deion Branch to Wes Welker to Julian Edelman. Who’s that guy for Jones? Jakobi Meyers is the team’s leading receiver, but he’s averaging just 48.2 yards per game (59th). Furthermore, Meyers has 21 first downs on the season. He’s on pace for 37 over a 16 game season (2.3 a game). Edelman finished with 54 first downs in 2019 on a bum knee and a bad shoulder (3.3 a game). Meyers is a fine player, but he hasn’t been that consistent chain-mover yet.
The other thing missing from the Pats offense is a legitimate No. 1 weapon. They had a chance at a lottery ticket, but OBJ took his 14.7 million instagram followers to Los Angeles. Jonnu Smith was supposed to be the “pop” guy, but that has not happened. Smith is averaging 21.4 receiving yards per game. His 11.8 percent drop rate ranks fourth among pass catchers that have been targeted at least 30 times.
The Pats are on this winning streak because the defense has been great. However, the offense is going to need to win a game at some point. Mac is averaging just 7.8 intended air yards per attempt according to Next Gen Stats (21st). The Pats are averaging a pedestrian 5.5 yards per play (20th). Josh McDaniels needs to find more explosive plays somewhere.
Things will not be easy Sunday. The Browns rank No. 1 in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate (55 percent). Myles Garrett leads all edge defenders with a 29 percent Pass Rush Win Rate. Jadeveon Clowney is second at 28 percent.
The Pats are playing relevant football again, but it is time for the offense to show us more.