The Boston Celtics have been the talk of the summer. After flaming out in the first round of the playoffs, and blowing a 3-1 series lead, the team underwent several massive changes. The additions of Mitchell Robinson and Mike Conley on July 1 were the appetizer for the main course that was served later that day: the trading of 2024 NBA Finals MVP and franchise icon Jaylen Brown.
The Celtics won 56 games last year with Brown as the lead dog; Jayson Tatum returned from his Achilles injury on March 6 and played at a high level, but Brown was the driving force behind the 2026 regular season success.
It’s understandable if you’re worried about how deep a team that has Paul George instead of Brown can go in the playoffs and the cost of wasting a year of Jayson Tatum’s prime. But make no mistake, the Celtics will once again win at least 50 games and be a top five seed in the Eastern Conference. The playoffs are a real concern, but the regular season Celtics will once again be good.
The road for the Celtics will be more difficult than a year ago. Last season saw an unprecedented number of teams tanking due to a generationally good draft class and it being the final season of the old lottery system. There will always be teams that tank in the NBA, but this will promise fewer nights that are easy wins. The East will also be much better: the Knicks are the defending champions, the Pacers get Tyrese Haliburton back, the Raptors added Kawhi Leonard, and the Wizards will have Trae Young, Anthony Davis and No. 1 overall draft pick AJ Dybantsa. Last season, the Celtics went 10-1 in games against the Wizards, Pacers and Raptors. That won’t happen again.
So, how can the Celtics expect to still win 50 or more games in this environment without Jaylen Brown? The answer is surprisingly simple: from a regular season perspective the Celtics are better than they were last season.
Jayson Tatum played 16 games after returning from an Achilles tear; he averaged 21 points and 10 rebounds per game. At 28 years old, Tatum will be back to his top-five form this season and more than make up for the lost production of trading Brown. Payton Pritchard will have to elevate as the second scorer on the Celtics, which could hurt them come playoff time, but throughout the regular season he can contribute enough to win at a high level; last year he averaged 17 points per game in a role that fluctuated between starter and sixth man.
Boston will be lucky if Paul George plays 50 games, but when on the court he will be a great complement to Tatum. George averaged 17/5/3 last year and shot 39% from three. Expect a lot of possessions where a driving Tatum kicks to George in the corner for a three. Again, they’ll be lucky to get 50 games from him, but for the regular season it will be enough to be one of the East’s top teams.
The other issue that haunted the Celtics last year was rebounding. On the surface, their rebounding stats look good. They ranked third in the NBA in rebounds per game and second in rebound percentage. However, they had issues both early in the season and in the playoffs when they played teams that could rebound well.
The Celtics were outrebounded 53-37 in an early season loss to the Knicks, the Pistons were +17 on the boards in a win to drop the Celtics to 0-3, and on Nov. 3, arguably their worst loss of the season, Utah outrebounded them 55-36 including a last second putback by Jusuf Nurkic to win the game. The Celtics lost the rebounding battle to the 76ers in Game 6 of their playoff series and tied it in Game 7; the Sixers had three key defensive rebounds with the Celtics down 99-98 late in the game.
The addition of Mitchell Robinson should help this immensely. Robinson is one of the best rebounders in the NBA. In on 19 minutes per game, Robinson averaged eight rebounds per game and was fifth in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game. He also made 147 shots within five feet of the rim, which would’ve been third on the Celtics despite Robinson playing less than 20 minutes per game. An increased role for Robinson in Boston will help these late game rebounding issues and the Celtics will win games because of it. Add in that Neemias Queta will be able to have some of the rebound load taken off him and Tatum being an excellent rebounder, and you’ll have a group that is much better on the glass late in games.
If you’re a Celtics fan who is frustrated by the thought of the team not going deep in the playoffs during Tatum’s age-28 season, that is understandable. The team is taking a huge risk that one potential wasted year of Tatum’s prime could set them up to contend for a championship the next four. And it is of course possible the Celtics could swing another move before the trade deadline or get just the right playoff seed that allows them to win a couple rounds. Boston will still be a top five team in an improved East during the regular season, but as we know in Boston, it’s May and June that matter most.
