Carolina it is. The Bruins prioritized health over seeding Friday night, sitting eight of their best players and ultimately losing to the Toronto Maple Leafs, 5-2.
That means the Bruins finished the season fourth in the Atlantic Division and in the top wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, setting up a first-round series against the Metropolitan Division-winning Carolina Hurricanes that will begin Monday night in Raleigh.
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Here are five initial thoughts on the series:
1. The Hurricanes dominated the season series
It’s going to get mentioned a million times, so we might as well start here. The Bruins lost all three games they played against the Hurricanes this season and got outscored by a whopping 16-1 margin in the process.
The question is: Does it matter? Maybe a little. The Hurricanes might have a little bit more confidence because of it. But for the most part… probably not.
The first game (a 3-0 loss) was way back on Oct. 28, in the sixth game of the season. The second (a 7-1 loss) was one of Tuukka Rask’s four starts this season, and he got pulled after giving up five goals in the first period. For the third (a 6-0 loss), the Bruins were without both Patrice Bergeron (injury) and Brad Marchand (suspension). Even that most recent game was nearly three months ago.
That doesn’t completely excuse those performances. The Bruins made way too many mistakes regardless of who was or wasn’t in the lineup or in goal, and the Hurricanes are too opportunistic to do that against. But it’s also fair to say that those three games aren’t representative of who or what the Bruins are now.
The Bruins didn’t have their current line combinations for any of those games. They didn’t have Hampus Lindholm yet, either. Oh, and the Bruins have a better record and better goal differential than the Hurricanes since that final meeting.
2. Both teams have goaltending questions
The Hurricanes’ are more pressing, though. Frederik Andersen, their clear No. 1 all season long and a likely Vezina Trophy finalist, suffered a leg injury on April 16 and is expected to miss at least the start of this series.
That leaves Carolina with veteran backup Antti Raanta and rookie Pyotr Kochetkov. Raanta made 25 starts this season, but has just an .890 save percentage over his last seven outings. Kochetkov has made just three appearances with a .902 save percentage. The Hurricanes are no strangers to postseason goaltending issues, as it’s been one of their downfalls against the Bruins in the past. They have to hope it’s not déjà vu this year.
The Bruins’ questions are more about whether they’ll ride one goalie for the whole series. While the Bruins haven’t officially announced anything yet, it certainly looks like Linus Ullmark will be the Game 1 starter. He’s earned it with his stellar play over the last month and a half, as he enters the postseason with a 9-1-0 record and .945 save percentage over his last 12 appearances (10 starts).
Ullmark has never started a Stanley Cup playoff game, though, and he’s never handled the kind of workload and pressure that comes with being an every-game playoff starter. Bruce Cassidy has the left the door open to the possibility of using both Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman in the playoffs. When and if he makes a change will be fascinating to watch.
3. There’s recent postseason history here
And it favors the Bruins. In 2019, the Bruins swept the Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference finals. The next year, in the bubble, they won their first-round meeting in five games, despite Tuukka Rask leaving after Game 2.
Carolina’s best offensive players had an especially miserable time in those series. Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Teuvo Teravainen combined for just five goals in the nine games. The Hurricanes as a team scored more than two goals in a game just twice. The Bruins’ top players, meanwhile, were dominant. Bergeron, Marchand and David Pastrnak combined for 12 goals in the two series.
Andersen wasn’t on the Hurricanes for those series, but if he plays in this series, the Bruins also have postseason history with him. He was the Maple Leafs’ starting goalie when Boston and Toronto met in the first round in both 2018 and 2019. The Bruins won both of those series in seven games, and Andersen gave up a total of nine goals in the two decisive games.
We’ll ask again: Does any of it matter? Maybe not. But it probably doesn’t hurt if you’re the Bruins to be able to look across the ice and see a lot of guys you’ve beaten in the playoffs before. Thinking that automatically means it will happen again, though, would be a mistake. All those Hurricanes are two years older now and in their primes, and they’re just too good of a team to take even remotely lightly.
4. Will either power play break through?
The Bruins spent most of April mired in an 0-for-39 drought on the man advantage before finally scoring a pair of power-play goals against Buffalo on Thursday. The Hurricanes finished the season stuck in their own 3-for-37 power-play slump. Carolina has the best penalty kill in the NHL; Boston ranks ninth.
So, is anyone going to score on the power play in this series? If one team breaks through and the other doesn’t, that could be a series decider. And not to be the bearer of bad news, but the Hurricanes power play did break through against the Bruins this season. They went 5-for-12 in three games. We already covered all the mitigating factors and why those games might not mean a ton, but 41.7% is still pretty good.
And not to be the bearer of bad news again, but the Bruins’ penalty kill quietly finished the season in a slump of its own, allowing nine goals on its last 32 opportunities for a 71.9% PK -- well below Boston’s 81.5% rate for the season. That’s going to have to be much better in this series.
The Hurricanes are one of the few teams whose 5-on-5 metrics are as good as the Bruins’, and they’re also one of the few teams that’s as committed to defensive structure as the Bruins are. Limiting mistakes and at least breaking even on special teams will be essential. Winning the special teams battle would be even better.
5. The matchup game will be fascinating
The Hurricanes’ third line of Nino Niederreiter, Jordan Staal and Jesper Fast is one of the best checking lines in the league. How Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour chooses to use them will be fascinating.
In the teams’ first meeting this season, he used them against the Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line, which has since been broken up. In the second, no one cared about matchups because the Hurricanes jumped out to a 5-1 lead in the first period and the game was basically already over. In the third, with Bergeron and Marchand both out, their assignment was Pastrnak’s new line, with Taylor Hall and Erik Haula.
So this will really be the first time in a game that matters that Brind’Amour will have to decide between using Staal’s line against the Bruins’ first line or their second line, which is really just as good if not better than the first line offensively.
And if he puts them on the Haula line, then Bruce Cassidy could get to use the Bergeron line against Aho’s line, which is a matchup Bergeron has won fairly convincingly over the years, including in their past playoff meetings. Cassidy usually does not chase matchups, even in the playoffs, but that one might be appealing.