5 initial thoughts on Celtics-76ers second-round series

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Wyc Grousbeck celebrates Celtics' win, looks ahead to Philly

With Thursday night’s series-clinching Game 6 victory over the Atlanta Hawks, the stage is set for the Celtics in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Boston will be taking on Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers, with the series starting Monday night at TD Garden. Philadelphia has not beaten the Celtics in a postseason series since the 1982 Eastern Conference Finals.

Boston won the season series over the 76ers three games to one, with Boston’s lone loss against Philadelphia coming in their final regular season meeting on April 4, a game in which Boston was without both Jaylen Brown and Robert Williams.

Here are five early thoughts on the Celtics-76ers second-round series:

The health of Joel Embiid

For the 76ers, the health of the likely 2022-23 NBA MVP, Joel Embiid, will be a major concern this series. Embiid suffered a sprained LCL in his right knee in Philadelphia's Game 3 win over the Brooklyn Nets, forcing the star big man to miss Game 4.

Embiid was gifted two extra days to rest up due to the Celtics’ inability to close out their series against Atlanta in Game 5, but his health still remains a big question.

When asked about the status of Embiid, 76ers head coach Doc Rivers said Embiid would be "50 percent, at best" to play in Game 1 against Boston, which could be a big break for the Celtics.

Clean up the second half, specifically the third quarter

Second-half struggles have been an issue for the Celtics in recent postseason runs, and those struggles continued in Round 1 against Atlanta. Throughout their six game series with the Hawks, Boston was outscored 350-326 in the second half. When you think of second-half meltdowns from Round 1, it’s easy to point to Boston’s Game 5 fourth-quarter collapse, in which they were outscored 20-6 in the final 5:24 of the game, but the bigger issue has been the third quarter.

In the Atlanta series, Boston was outscored 180-158 in the third quarter. The Hawks averaged 30 points per quarter in the third, while shooting 50% from the field.

Luckily for the Celtics, Philadelphia isn’t a great third-quarter team either. They finished 23rd in the NBA in third-quarter scoring in the regular season, and are currently 15th in postseason third-quarter scoring, averaging just 23.5 points.

Regardless, as the Celtics get deeper into the postseason, there is less margin for error, especially late in games. This is an area Boston needs to clean up quickly, or it could come back and haunt them just as it did a season ago.

Control the boards

You would think a team with MVP front-runner Joel Embiid would be among the NBA’s best rebounding teams, right?

That’s actually not the case. Philadelphia finished the regular season 26th in the NBA in rebounds per game. For what it’s worth, the Celtics ranked seventh in the NBA in terms of rebounding.

The battle on the boards was a heavy emphasis in Boston’s first-round matchup against Atlanta, and it should be again this series.

When the Celtics out-rebound their opponent, they are extremely tough to beat. The C's are 37-7 when they out-rebound their opponent, including 3-1 this postseason. When Boston is out-rebounded, they are 20-20. The rebounding battle has told the story for the Celtics this season, and this is a department they can dominate in against Philidelphia, especially with a banged-up Embiid.

Defensive battle

Both of these teams are very good on the defensive end. Boston finished the season second in total defense, and Philadelphia was right behind them in third. Boston’s defense had some slip-ups in their first-round matchup against the Hawks, but look for the C’s to clean things up in Round 2.

Atlanta is a far better OFFENSIVE team than the 76ers, which will take some pressure off the Celtics’ defense. It feels like folks didn’t give the Atlanta offense the respect they deserve -- after all, the Hawks did finish third in points per game this season, behind just the Kings and Warriors.

In their four games this season, Philadelphia only averaged 106.5 points per game against Boston, which would have been good for worst in the NBA. On the flip side, Boston only averaged 110.8 points per game against Philadelphia, which is far less than their 117.9 season average.

The Celtics-Hawks series featured a lot of scoring, but don’t expect the same thing for this series. This series will be won on the boards and on the defensive end, two areas the Celtics excelled in this season.

The Jays 

After erupting for a combined 70 points on 27-of-44 (61.3%) shooting from the field, snagging 15 rebounds and dishing out six assists in the Celtics’ 126-117 victory over Philadelphia on opening night of the 2022-23 NBA season, the Jays have since struggled against Philadelphia.

In three games against Philly since their opening night explosion, Jayson Tatum has a combined 49 points on 19-of-52 (36.5%) shooting and 11 turnovers. Tatum failed to reach 20 points in each of those three games.

Jaylen Brown has seen many of the same struggles. In two games for him against Philadelphia since opening night, Brown has totaled just 30 points on 12-of-30 (40%) shooting from the field and six turnovers.

To state the obvious, Boston can’t afford to have these types of performances from the Jays, and don’t expect that to be the case. They are simply too good of players.

Prediction: 

Celtics in six games

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