Let the Lucas Giolito era begin
The ammunition for justifying a trade of Kenley Jansen isn't difficult to find.
For a Red Sox team still looking to free up money in 2024, shedding the $16 million owed Jansen (which is just under 10 percent of the team's entire payroll for the coming season) fits the bill.
The surface-level value of Jansen's effectiveness in 2023 can be questioned considering the Red Sox led all of the majors in save percentage, while the world champion Rangers were dead-last.
And there would seem to be some viable options to take a crack at stepping into life as a closer already on the roster, with the likes of Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Chris Martin offering some intrigue.
Fair.
But there is a lesson to be learned from what happened in 2023, with Jansen serving as the primary instructor.
In this baseball world of hesitancy to pay for, and prioritize, some perceived certainty, Jansen and Martin embodied why such an approach should be valued. Sure, the Red Sox' path didn't lead them to where they wanted to go, but can you imagine what would have transpired without that $23.5 million, end-of-game, 1-2 punch?
The Red Sox went 38-13 in games Jansen appeared, and 41-14 during Martin's outings. Meanwhile, the certainty of the duo of the two pushed everyone else in the bullpen down to make the final three innings actually palatable on most days. Yes, the Sox were actually a respectable 10th in the majors when it came to team ERA from the seventh inning and on. The year before? They were 23rd.
Jansen represented the part of the roster they got right. It's a reality that shouldn't be forgotten.
The temptation of using Jansen to further turn over the roster beyond 2024 is undeniably tempting, in the same way it was for another soon-to-be free agent Alex Verdugo. That dynamic is nothing new. But in this case - with the Red Sox still clinging to the notion that a competitive season is a possibility - such a maneuver is more dangerous than many are leading on.
There is nothing worse for any team than to be chasing late-game certainty. Just ask those teams that had to recalibrate on the fly in order to make their respective postseason runs.
The Diamondbacks were forced to trade for Paul Sewald at the deadline. For the Rangers it was Aroldis Chapman, while stumbling upon their two most important October relievers in Jose Leclerc and Josh Sborz - a duo which combined for five regular season saves.
And if you find yourself in a spot where the postseason isn't a reality come Aug. 1 then feel free to move on from those final two months of Jansen's contract commitment, taking advantage of the kind of desperation that netted the Royals an ace-in-waiting (Cole Ragans) for Chapman.
Perhaps the haul the Red Sox would be getting for Jansen will be too tantalizing, along with whatever financial flexibility that accompanies such a move. Still, the maybes and hope-for-the-bests are starting to pile up once again on the Red Sox' 2024 roster, with the latest example, Lucas Giolito, being introduced Wednesday.
This team has to start locking in on starting the season with a few more no-doubt-about-it-type of players, particularly in key spots. It's why the idea of trading Jansen should be met a bit more caution than has been bubbling up the past few weeks.