Well, here we go. It’s still not “normal” given the mid-May start and limited capacity in arenas, but it’s the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and it’s at least closer to normal than last year.
The Bruins open their first-round series against the Capitals Saturday night in Washington, which means it is time to preview everything there is to preview about this series.
The Skate Podcast’s Brian DeFelice, Bridgette Proulx and Scott McLaughlin take a crack at answering some key questions, picking X-factors and predicting the outcome of the series. You can also listen to the podcast version of our preview here:
If the Bruins win the series, the biggest reason will be:
DeFelice: Team speed. Speed kills and there are three main reasons why playing with pace will lead to success for the Bruins. First, let’s start in the defensive zone. Boston should hold an edge on the blue line in terms of turning defense into offense with Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk and Mike Reilly. Meanwhile, Brandon Carlo, Kevan Miller and Jeremy Lauzon should be more effective than Zdeno Chara, Nick Jensen and Brenden Dillon on breakouts. Second, the additions up front of Taylor Hall and Curtis Lazar have completely altered the forward group and lines one through four, the Bruins are playing with more speed through the neutral zone than they had prior to the deadline. If the forwards play with pace on both the forecheck and backcheck to eliminate time and space, it should force Washington into turnovers and lead to possession and offense. Lastly, it’s no secret that the Capitals are a big and physical team, so outskating Washington will be Boston’s best bet to avoid serious injuries and maintain health. The Capitals can’t hit what they can’t catch.
Proulx: Playing physical without playing stupid. The Bruins have found out the hard way what the punishment can be for allowing the Capitals opportunities on the power play. Washington has scored nine power-play goals on 30 opportunities (30.0%) against the Bruins and have allowed just three power-play goals against, killing off 87.5% of Bruins power plays. It’s easy to get drawn into infractions with guys like Tom Wilson and Garnet Hathaway constantly instigating altercations, but the Bruins know this is what they can expect, and know to stay disciplined even when those heated situations arise. They know if they bite, they lose. So playing big, playing aggressive, playing in the dirty areas, but playing disciplined hockey is the key for Boston.
McLaughlin: Defense and goaltending. A lot has been made of the Bruins’ offensive improvement since the trade deadline, and rightly so -- in fact, the Bruins have scored more than the Capitals over the last month. But the Bruins’ biggest advantage over the Capitals is that they’re a better defensive team with better goaltending. For the season, the Bruins are fourth in the NHL in goals against (2.39 per game), while the Capitals are 17th (2.88). Since the April 12 deadline, the gap is even bigger, with the Bruins first at 1.88 and the Capitals improving a little to 2.64. Tuukka Rask and Jeremy Swayman (if the Bruins have to turn to him) are better than Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov (if he even dresses). Since March 25, here are their save percentages: Rask .925 in 10 games, Swayman .945 in 10 games, Vanecek .903 in 15 games, Samsonov .896 in 10 games.
If the Capitals win the series, the biggest reason will be:
DeFelice: Special teams. The Bruins have had numerous issues staying out of the penalty box against the Capitals and have often times paid for it. Between Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson and Justin Schultz, Washington has far too many weapons on the man advantage. The Bruins will be wise to keep their discipline against an antagonizing yet skilled Capitals team, or else it could very well cost them the series.
Proulx: I can think of a lot of things the Capitals do well that could win them the series. Baiting the Bruins into undisciplined penalties and then making Boston pay for it with their top-of-the-line power play is always a possibility. That's a game the Bruins can't afford to play. The Capitals also have a knack for catching teams deep, and springing a guy like Ovechkin for a breakaway or odd-man rush. Guys like Oshie can make you pay for defensive-end turnovers and failed clears. If the Capitals take the lead and momentum early in the game or in the series, the Bruins could have a hell of a time fighting back against a team that's this physical, consistent and stacked from top to bottom.
McLaughlin: Tom Wilson killed one of Boston’s stars. I’m only half-kidding, but my real answer is that they drew the Bruins into a special teams battle. Since the trade deadline, the Bruins have been the best five-on-five team in the NHL (plus-21 goal differential). The Capitals are plus-2 in that time -- plus-1 if you take out Tuesday’s game against the JV Bruins. If the Bruins can keep these games at five-on-five, it could be a short series. But if there are penalties being called left and right and lots of power-play time, the Capitals will have a good shot. They have the third-best power play in the NHL (24.8%), and while the Bruins have the second-best penalty kill (86.0%), their PK has struggled against Washington this season, as Bridgette previously covered.
How do we feel about the Bruins facing Zdeno Chara in a playoff series?
DeFelice: Story-telling at its finest. Less than a year removed from being captain of the Bruins, Zdeno Chara now towers in the way of Boston’s Stanley Cup aspirations and vice versa — pure poetry. As for the reality of playing against Chara in a best-of-seven series, the Bruins know his strengths and weaknesses and while they will be on the receiving end of some bone-crunching hits and subtle cross-checks, they will look to expose Chara’s lack of mobility and force him into turnovers. One thing is for sure: Win or lose, the post-series handshakes will be appointment viewing between Chara and his former long-time friends and teammates.
Proulx: A problem for the Bruins is that Chara knows all of the tendencies of the B’s top players and he knows what it takes to lead a team on a deep playoff run. “He knows when we're doing certain plays. Obviously teams will do video and stuff like that but, he knows all the code names that we use and typically the situations that we like to use them in,” Marchand said recently. “It can definitely cause some challenges at times.” But that can be overcome as Marchand suggested later on in that conversation, because every team knows each other well at this point of the season and has access to video on their opponents. The biggest thing Chara brings is his playoff experience and leadership. “This is truly one of the reasons that they signed Zee, is probably for this time of year coming up,” Bruce Cassidy acknowledged. “His impact probably hasn’t truly been felt yet. And we’re going to be the first ones to find out.”
McLaughlin: It’s weird! I think some of the tactical stuff (Chara knows their habits, terminology, set plays, etc.) is a little overrated, because everyone knows everything about everyone after eight regular-season meetings anyways. But his leadership and experience can only help the Capitals.
He’s still their top penalty-killer and still handles a lot of their toughest defensive assignments, which means we’re going to see him out there against the Bruins’ top two lines quite a bit, and that includes old friends Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and David Krejci.
Will Tom Wilson do something that requires Department of Player Safety intervention?
DeFelice: No. Unless it’s a blatant head shot or hit from behind — which wouldn’t be uncharacteristic of Wilson — the league tends to embrace a more physical brand of hockey in the postseason and rightfully so. Wilson also understands his importance to Washington’s success and may keep himself in line knowing eyes will be on him waiting for a slip-up.
Proulx: Going with the safe bet here - yes, yes he will. Or at least he will do something that SHOULD require an intervention by the Department of Player Safety. He's gotten away with quite a few in the past. But it doesn't matter if it's preseason, regular season or the playoffs for Wilson to get suspended -- he doesn't seem to be able to turn that part of his game off. No one forgets his hit to the head of Brandon Carlo that got him suspended for seven games this season and the league will for sure be keeping an eye on Wilson’s actions in the series. But one thing is for sure, the Capitals would be much worse off without Wilson in their lineup if he's serving a suspension. And for that reason he'd be better off keeping things heavy but clean if he wants to give his team the best chance to win.
McLaughlin: I’m leaning yes here. Getting suspended seven games for drilling Carlo in the head earlier this season didn’t get him to clean up his act, as we saw with his recent attacks on Rangers forwards Pavel Buchnevich and Artemi Panarin. The Bruins are also a team that gets him particularly riled up -- in addition to the suspension, he has three fighting majors and a 10-minute misconduct against them this season. He’s been suspended in the playoffs before (three games in 2018) and had other questionable postseason hits as well, so I’m not sure he’s actually capable of reining it in. Especially if the Bruins take a two-game lead at some point, I could definitely see Wilson doing something stupid.
Besides Alex Ovechkin or Tom Wilson, which Capital worries you the most?
DeFelice: Nicklas Backstrom. Backstrom led the Capitals with 53 points in 52 games this season, and with 927 points in 956 career games, he is one of the most underrated players over the last decade-plus. Backstrom’s vision and playmaking ability is similar to that of David Krejci — albeit he’s a little bit more dangerous than Krejci. Alex Ovechkin is a generational talent but the Capitals offense often goes as Backstrom does, and he’s a player the Bruins will need to contain.
Proulx: T.J. Oshie. To me this is the obvious answer (assuming he's healthy). Oshie has scored five times against the Bruins this season, including two two-goal games. (And he would have six goals if one hadn’t been taken back for offside.) He plays alongside some of the best setup players in the NHL and on a very dangerous first power=play unit. He ranks first on the Capitals in power-play goals (13) and is tied for second in the NHL. He has the ability to get to and score in the dirty areas of the ice and has made the Bruins pay for their turnovers -- case in point on March 3, when Oshie set up Lars Eller for an easy goal after Oshie picked off a pass in the Bruins end. He has been solid in the final stretch of the season, recording 23 points (15 goals, 8 assists) in his last 22 games. He's playing with an extra chip on his shoulder, with his dad passing away this month, and will be taking that emotion into the playoffs.
This time of year all of that matters.
McLaughlin: Good choices with Backstrom and Oshie. I’ll change things up and go with Anthony Mantha, the Capitals’ big trade deadline acquisition. When he’s going, he’s a dangerous power forward who can skate and score and be a real difference-maker. But he’s a streaky player, and when he’s not on, he can disappear. Just take his 14 games in Washington so far: four goals in his first four games with them, then none in the last 10. Saturday will be his first career playoff game. Which Mantha shows up? If it’s the four goals in four games Mantha, that’s bad news for Boston.
Tuukka Time: When this series is over, what will be saying about Rask?
DeFelice: “I still don’t trust him to win it all.” Rask has won in the playoffs -- he’s helped the Bruins advance past the first round five times in his career, and he has won nine series total as the starter. However, the knock on him is that he has never propelled Boston to a Stanley Cup title, and a first-roound win over the Capitals (or obviously a loss) wouldn’t change that narrative.
Proulx: OK I'm not a psychic, but I'll take my best whack at it. This is honestly the toughest question to predict in our playoff preview. That's because we've seen glimpses of playoff Tuukka already but also have seen him not moving between the pipes as quickly as he needs to and battling for position to see pucks. I'll give Rask the benefit of the doubt and lean towards predicting we will see performances from him that remind everyone why he's one of the top goaltenders in the league. I say we see him play phenomenal playoff hockey, this time with the fans back to give him that extra boost.
McLaughlin: That he played well and helped the Bruins win the series. I don’t think the Bruins will need him to stand on his head to win this series, so I don’t think we’ll be going that far. But I think he’ll be good, as he has been for the overwhelming majority of his playoff career. You don’t end up with a .926 career postseason save percentage by accident. Plus, not having any back-to-backs should ease some concerns about his physical state, which he has said himself is less than 100 percent.
Besides Rask, which Bruin is your X-factor?
DeFelice: David Pastrnak. He has proven himself to be one the best goal-scorers in the league over the last four seasons and recently became the fastest Bruin in franchise history to reach 200 goals. Now it’s time for Pastrnak to elevate his game when it matters most and against a team that will make him earn every bit of success. Pastrnak had no issue lighting up the defensively soft Maple Leafs in postseasons past, but has had difficulty implementing his game against bigger, tougher teams like Tampa Bay and St.
Louis in a seven-game series. Washington is one of those big, tough teams and it’s time for Pastrnak to show Alex Ovechkin that there’s a new kid on the block.
Proulx: The first player that popped into my head for this was Taylor Hall and then David Krejci, but because they've been so consistent in their 16 games together, let's just assume they keep that up. I thought of this more in terms of who could put the Bruins over the edge with key plays and scoring from the depth of the lineup. That brings me to think that Nick Ritchie, as left wing on the third line, could be the Bruins’ X-factor. Hear me out. Even if David Pastrnak isn't performing at his highest potential, Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron have provided more than enough offense for the top line throughout the season. And the second line has been reliable as well in 16 games since the trade deadline. So, the first and second lines for the Bruins will be able to keep them in every game, but Ritchie could be just what the team needs to bring them over the top with much needed secondary scoring, his net-front presence, and his physicality the Bruins will need to match the Capitals.
McLaughlin: Taylor Hall. He’s been the X-factor in the whole Bruins season, and they need that to continue. Before they got him, the Bruins were playing like a borderline playoff team. Since they got him, they’ve played like legitimate Cup contenders. He’s not the only reason for that turnaround, of course, but he’s the biggest. This will be the first time Hall enters the playoffs on a team with real championship aspirations. It’s a great opportunity for him, but also a challenge. The Bruins couldn’t have asked for much more from Hall in the regular season, but now they need it to continue in the playoffs.
And finally, what’s your prediction for the series?
DeFelice: Bruins in six. While the Bruins and Capitals each have enough size, skill and depth to go on a deep run, only one of them will get the chance to do so. Boston’s edge in net, superior team defense and newfound scoring depth should be enough to make sure they’re the team moving on to the second round. The B’s will clinch the series on home ice in Game 6.
Proulx: OK, actually maybe this is the toughest question. So let's put this series into context. Both teams have had blowout wins over each other at one point in the season, most games have been emotional for one reason or another, and players being in and out of the lineup for the Bruins through the season series with Washington make it hard to judge based off of previous games. So let’s look at what we know. The Bruins have a clear advantage in speed and in net. Vitek Vanecek is more of a wild card than you want your goalie to be and the Bruins have more than one goalie on their roster that is better than him. Brad Marchand has scored seven goals in his seven games against Washington this year and I expect his success to continue. Home ice advantage for the Caps will factor in but not enough to change the trajectory of the whole series. If the Bruins can stay disciplined, they can get past the Capitals. Bruins in six.
McLaughlin: Bruins in five. Better team defense. Better goaltending. Much better at five-on-five since the trade deadline. Heck, even a better offense since the deadline. Just stay out of the penalty box and this could -- and probably should -- be a short series, which would obviously be huge since you really don’t want to have to play a long series against a team as physical as Washington.
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