The Bruins are going to make the playoffs, and they’re likely going to be one of the top two seeds in the Atlantic Division. If they finish second, they’re probably meeting the third-place Maple Leafs in the first round. If they beat out the Panthers to finish first, they could face any of the numerous candidates in a wide-open wild-card race, with the Lightning, Red Wings, Flyers, Capitals and Islanders all still duking it out.
Sunday Skate: Bruins playoff lineup taking shape?
Before they can focus on their first-round opponent, though, the Bruins still have plenty to work on and figure out internally over their final 13 games, including what their best lineup is going to look like come Game 1. Coach Jim Montgomery is still sorting through his options at forward, on defense and, yes, in goal.
With that in mind, we thought it might be a good time to take a first crack at predicting the Bruins’ Game 1 lineup. Let’s start with our guess, and then we’ll go line-by-line and position-by-position with explanations.
Forwards:
Brad Marchand – Charlie Coyle – Jake DeBrusk
Danton Heinen – Pavel Zacha – David Pastrnak
James van Riemsdyk – Morgan Geekie – Trent Frederic
Johnny Beecher – Jesper Boqvist – Justin Brazeau
Defense:
Matt Grzelcyk – Charlie McAvoy
Hampus Lindholm – Brandon Carlo
Parker Wotherspoon – Andrew Peeke
Goalie:
Linus Ullmark
Forwards
There is one big (literally) wild card up front, and that is trade deadline acquisition Pat Maroon. Maroon underwent back surgery in early February. He had started skating before the trade, but now he’s not skating. Montgomery said on Monday that he is still considered week-to-week. He will not play this week. Until we see him practicing and taking contact, I can’t assume he’s ready and up to speed for Game 1. If he is, though, he’s probably bumping someone off the fourth line.
DeBrusk has gotten hot playing with Marchand and Coyle. The Bruins have outscored opponents 13-7 with that line on the ice. No reason to mess with it.
Zacha is also hot right now and has clearly rediscovered his chemistry with Pastrnak. They’ve had both Heinen and van Riemsdyk on their left at times, but things have looked better with Heinen there recently (62.2% expected goals-for percentage in 77 5-on-5 minutes).
Van Riemsdyk has gone quiet (six games without a point, 13 without a goal), and he actually got dropped to a rotational fourth-line spot at Monday’s practice. But he’s also just getting over a week-long illness, and he, Geekie and Frederic have been a good third line overall, with a lot of size and net-front jam. The Bruins have a whopping 71.8% expected goals-for percentage during their 106 5-on-5 minutes.
Boqvist has taken the fourth-line center job and run with it since his early January call-up. Brazeau’s size, physicality and work around the net has been a welcome addition over the last month, and he’s earned a spot at least until Maroon is ready. Beecher has played very well since getting called back up last week, and his faceoff ability (team-best 54.6% on the season) gives him the edge over Jakub Lauko, who, to his credit, has also picked up his play recently. Montgomery seems to like the Beecher-Boqvist dynamic when it comes to shifting between center and wing.
“We're gonna have Beecher take the draws because he's so good at it,” Montgomery said Monday. “If they lose the draw in-zone, Beecher’s gonna play center until we get out of the zone. But when it goes 5-on-5, we want Boqvist playing center.
“…We want him [Boqvist] handling the puck, and when you're a center, you get the puck more. He's doing a great job. He's confident with the puck. … We just like him transporting the puck, and his speed underneath pucks puts opponents… they give up the blue line a lot.”
Defense
This might be where there’s the most still up for grabs.
The one pairing that’s probably settled is Lindholm-Carlo. Montgomery loves using that as his shutdown pairing, and for good reason. Among 106 D pairs that have played at least 250 5-on-5 minutes together this season, Lindholm-Carlo ranks 12th in goals against per 60 minutes – and second among those that have an offensive-zone start percentage under 40% (they are way down at 23.7%, a testament to just how many big D-zone faceoffs they’re on the ice for).
Peeke has only played two games as a Bruin since coming over at the deadline, but he already looks like a completely different player than the one whose minutes and confidence were shot in Columbus. He and Wotherspoon together have the makings of an ideal playoff third pairing – one that’s good defensively, has some size, brings some physicality, and makes simple, safe plays with the puck.
The biggest point of contention here for a lot of fans is going to be Mason Lohrei getting left out. The rookie has played well for the most part since getting called back up last month, but he doesn’t fit the ideal third-pairing mold, so the player he most likely has to beat out is Grzelcyk.
There is a case to be made for Lohrei doing just that, especially since Grzelcyk has had an inconsistent season and the Grzelcyk-McAvoy pairing has not been as dominant as it has been in past seasons. But there are a couple things still working in Grzelcyk’s favor.
For starters, even in a “down” year, the Bruins still have 52.5% of expected goals and have outscored opponents 19-12 during Grzelcyk and McAvoy’s 500 5-on-5 minutes together. They rank sixth among qualified D pairs in goals against per 60 minutes. In the 202 minutes that Lohrei has been with McAvoy, the Bruins have been outscored 11-9 and have 44.7% of expected goals.
Montgomery also likes the way Grzelcyk has been playing – and playing with McAvoy – recently.
“I thought they were really good since Grizzy got back from when we played Toronto, Toronto, Edmonton,” Montgomery said Monday. “I think they've been like they were last year. I think Grizzy’s confidence has come up, and I think that anyone who plays with Mac is gonna play with more confidence.
“…Last year they were very dominant, right, statistically and to the eye. And I think that now you're seeing it again, like they're not spending much time in their own end, they're attacking middle ice, doesn't matter who has the puck. I encourage Grizzy as much as possible to attack middle ice from the D-zone and the neutral zone, because he makes really good decisions. And when he's moving his feet, offensively and defensively, he's a really good hockey player for the Bruins.”
As for Lohrei, Montgomery made it clear that he’s not going play him just because playoff or late-season experience might be good for his development; Lohrei will play if he wins a job and Montgomery believes he is one of the six defensemen who give the Bruins the best chance to win.
“As far as my approach with the players, everything is the same: You earn what you get,” he said. “So, you play well, you’re gonna keep playing. If you have a hiccup in a game, you're gonna watch for a bit, and you're gonna have to go and apply it next time you get in. It's not about development right now. You are what you are as a player, you need to keep getting better, and we're going to develop with you, but the message is: Play well, you keep playing. I think that's the way it works best. Earn what you get in life, earn what you get in the NHL.”
Veteran Kevin Shattenkirk joins Lohrei outside the top six for now, but he, too, is still competing for playing time, and he brings valuable Cup experience and leadership even if he’s not playing every day.
Goalie
Wait… Ullmark? Isn’t this supposed to be Swayman’s season? He was the All-Star this year, right?
Well, yes. Even two weeks ago, this probably would have been flipped. Heck, Ullmark was on the trading block two weeks ago.
But who’s playing better right now? You would have to say Ullmark. He has a .910 save percentage since the All-Star break and has allowed four goals total over his last three starts. Swayman has a .902 save percentage since the break and has surrendered nine goals in his last two starts.
Those goals aren’t all on Swayman, to be sure, and it should also be noted that he had two really good wins over Toronto right before this mini-skid. Montgomery also made sure to point that out when asked about Swayman on Monday.
“I'm comfortable with both our guys,” Montgomery said. “I think people are looking at Sway’s stats, and I think sometimes we can get too enamored with stats. We played Toronto twice, and he beat them 4-1 twice. Those were the most important games in this stretch, and he played well.”
Another area that could work in Ullmark’s favor, though: He’s been better against high-danger shots, and the Bruins have had a bad habit of giving up too many high-danger shots at times. Among 50 qualified goalies, Ullmark ranks fourth in high-danger save percentage at .860, while Swayman is 15th at .834.
Of course, when it comes to the Bruins’ goalie situation, who starts Game 2 might be even more interesting than who starts Game 1. With the two still so close, and the rotation still in place, the question of whether Boston will rotate in the playoffs remains. We covered that topic in more detail last week, but Montgomery weighed in again on Sunday.
“I’m not gonna commit to anything, but I’m very comfortable platooning them in the playoffs,” he said.