Mock drafts are fun, so how about a mock offseason? With the Bruins facing so many critical decisions this summer as they look to make one or two more runs at a Stanley Cup while they still have Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand playing at such a high level, it seemed like a worthwhile exercise.
So, here’s what we came up with. Let’s take it in roughly chronological order.
Expansion Draft (Protection lists submitted July 17; draft July 21)
Work out “handshake deals” with Taylor Hall and David Krejci ahead of time so you don’t have to protect them and don’t have to worry about them signing with Seattle.
See if the Kraken are interested in trading for Jake DeBrusk. In this simulation, they’re not… or they’re at least not interested enough to give you anything since they might get him for nothing if you leave him unprotected. Now you protect DeBrusk so you don’t lose him for nothing.
Full protection list: Forwards Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, Craig Smith, Charlie Coyle, Jake DeBrusk and Trent Frederic; Defensemen Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo and Matt Grzelcyk; Goalie Dan Vladar (Jeremy Swayman does not require protection).
Seattle’s decision likely comes down to Jeremy Lauzon or Connor Clifton. Let’s say they take Lauzon because he’s younger, bigger and under team control for longer.
NHL Draft (First round July 23; rounds 2-7 July 24)
Find a taker for DeBrusk at some point before or during the draft. It feels like things were broken beyond repair for DeBrusk in Boston by the end of the season. Maybe some team that lost a young forward in the expansion draft. Getting a second-round pick would be ideal, but you might have to settle for a third. Take it. Our mock front office has its eyes set on third-line upgrades in free agency, and moving DeBrusk's $3.675 million contract helps us do it.
The Bruins pick 20th overall this year (it’s technically the 21st pick, but the Coyotes are forfeiting the 11th overall pick). Take the best player on the board regardless of position. If it’s a forward, make sure they have real top-six offensive upside. The Bruins have one of the thinnest farm systems in the NHL. They’re almost certainly not going to find someone at 20 who’s ready to crack their roster next year, so don’t get cute and don’t worry about positional needs. Getting high-end talent is the No. 1 goal.
Some names to target who could still be available at 20 depending on how the board breaks: right wing Matthew Coronato, right wing Nikita Chibrikov, right wing Fabian Lysell, center/right wing Xavier Bourgault, center Zachary Bolduc, center/left wing Zachary L’Heureux, left wing Brennan Othmann, left D Daniil Chayka, right D Corson Ceulemans
Bruins’ own unrestricted free agents
Remember those “handshake” deals with Hall and Krejci? Time to get those finalized in the week between the Seattle expansion draft and the start of free agency. We’ll say five years for Hall with an average annual value of $6 million and two years for Krejci with an AAV of $4.75 million.
Yes, the second line was too quiet in the second round. But they were great before that, and bringing back the entire top six gives you the best chance to win now while still having enough money to address other depth issues on the roster.
Re-signing Mike Reilly is tempting. We’re thinking something like four years with a $3.5 million AAV might get it done since he has also said he wants to stay. But, we’re going to hold off for now. We might circle back to Reilly once free agency opens, but this mock general manager has some different ideas for free agency and doesn’t want to commit to Reilly ahead of time.
We will get to Tuukka Rask and the goaltending situation in a little bit. Jaroslav Halak, Sean Kuraly, Kevan Miller, Jarred Tinordi and Steven Kampfer are all going to be free to sign elsewhere.
Bruins’ restricted free agents
Brandon Carlo ultimately gets a four-year extension with a $4 million AAV. Trent Frederic signs for two years with a $1.25 million AAV. Cameron Hughes, who might challenge for a roster spot after a strong season in Providence, is back for two years with an $800,000 AAV.
Nick Ritchie, Ondrej Kase and Zach Senyshyn are not given qualifying offers and are allowed to become unrestricted free agents. Ritchie is the toughest call here, but he was part of a big problem (depth scoring) this postseason and could be in line for something around a $3 million AAV if he goes to arbitration. This mock front office wants more of a sure thing on the third line and believes that money can be better spent elsewhere.
Free Agency (Opens July 28)
Time to get aggressive. By my rough calculation (and using CapFriendly as a guide), after signing the UFAs and RFAs we’ve already signed, trading away DeBrusk and losing Lauzon to expansion, we have about $18.7 million in cap space at this point.
(For more on free-agent possibilities, check out our look at forward options and our look at defense options.)
We need a new third line. We’ve freed up money by moving on from DeBrusk, Ritchie and Kuraly. We’re fine with letting our internal options battle it out for fourth-line jobs, but don’t trust any of them to provide the consistent third-line offense the Bruins needed in the playoffs.
First forward signing: Blake Coleman for four years with an AAV of $4.5 million. Evolving-Hockey projects Coleman to get four years at $4.698M and they’re sometimes a little on the high side, so we’re right there. Coleman completely transformed the Lightning’s third line en route to a Stanley Cup last year, and he was very good again this year. With Tampa Bay likely unable to re-sign him due to cap issues, he could do for the Bruins’ third line what he did for their rivals. The 29-year-old, who can play either wing, scored 20-plus goals in each of the last two full seasons and had 14 in 55 games this year.
Second forward signing: Nick Bonino for two years with a $2.5 million AAV (pretty much exactly what Evolving-Hockey projects). The former BU Terrier is now 33 years old, but we’re not really worrying about age for short-term signings since we probably only have one or two more real shots at winning it all before some major roster turnover anyways. Bonino has been a valuable two-way asset everywhere he’s gone and won two Cups with the Penguins in 2016 and 2017. He had 10 goals and 16 assists in 55 games this season and topped 30 points in three of the four years before that.
Bonino is a center by nature, but he also played some wing for the Wild this season. The Bruins could put him on the wing with Coyle at center or stick him at center and bump Coyle to the wing. While a Coleman-Bonino-Coyle line should score more than this year’s various Bruins third lines, it would also be a very strong defensive trio that could be used as a matchup line in the playoffs.
Now, defense! Alec Martinez would be a great fit for the Bruins’ left side, but the bidding war might go higher than we’re comfortable with. Instead, we’re signing 28-year-old Jamie Oleksiak for five years with a $4.25 million AAV (slightly over Evolving-Hockey’s $4.18M projection). Oleksiak broke through as a true top-four shutdown defender last postseason during the Stars’ run to the Stanley Cup Final, and he continued to succeed in that role this season. At 6-foot-7 and 255 pounds, he brings some size and physicality the Bruins (and their fans) would love.
And here’s why we waited on a Reilly contract. We’re getting low on cap space and there’s one free agent in particular we can get for cheaper. Reilly is a good player and definitely helped the Bruins this season, but he also got exposed a bit in his own end in the playoffs.
Let’s pivot to Jake McCabe and scoop him up for two years with a $1.4 million AAV (we’re thinking Evolving-Hockey’s one-year, $1.027M projection will turn out to be low). The 27-year-old McCabe has quietly been a really solid defensive defenseman on a bad Sabres team for a few years now. He may have been in line for a decent payday this offseason, but unfortunately for him he suffered a season-ending knee injury in February. With a six-to-eight-month recovery timetable, he should be back by opening night or shortly thereafter. He’ll bring some more physicality and shutdown D along with Oleksiak, and he’s also a good skater who can move the puck.
Perhaps we could have afforded even more defensive help had we been able to find a taker for John Moore and his $2.75 million contract, but we’ve been unable to make any sort of deal that wouldn’t require us to give up another asset or swallow a good chunk of money. Guess we’ll hang onto him and hope he can stay healthy and provide some sort of depth. If injuries continue to be a problem, maybe Moore ends up on long-term injured reserve.
Goaltending
After our free-agent spending spree, we have roughly $6 million of cap space remaining. About half of that will be spent on a goalie. We could sign Rask -- now or later on -- if we’re comfortable rolling with Swayman and Vladar for the first few months of the season. Or we could sign a veteran platoon-type goalie like Jonathan Bernier. $3 million or so should be enough for either.
We’re not doing both, though. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to sign Rask and another veteran if you’re actually confident in Swayman, which this mock front office is. We’ll go with a healthier Rask coming back midseason because he’s better than Bernier, but if you’re an anti-Rasker and want Bernier, pretend we did that instead. The other option is going after a better free-agent goalie like Phillip Grubauer or Chris Driedger, but that also costs more and would require us to cut spending somewhere else.
The rest of our cap space (roughly $2.5-3 million) will be saved for in-season flexibility (call-ups, waiver claims, trades). Speaking of trades, you'll notice we didn't make any besides dumping DeBrusk. Sorry, but the price on Jack Eichel and/or Mattias Ekholm was way too high.
So, here’s what our mock 2021-22 Bruins team looks like:
Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron - David Pastrnak
Taylor Hall - David Krejci - Craig Smith
Blake Coleman - Nick Bonino - Charlie Coyle
Trent Frederic - Curtis Lazar - Karson Kuhlman
(With Chris Wagner, Jack Studnicka, Cameron Hughes and possibly others pushing for those fourth-line jobs, too.)
Jamie Oleksiak - Charlie McAvoy
Matt Grzelcyk - Brandon Carlo
Jake McCabe - Connor Clifton
(With John Moore and Jakub Zboril serving as depth and Urho Vaakanainen, Jack Ahcan and Brady Lyle pushing from below.)
Jeremy Swayman
Dan Vladar
(With Tuukka Rask returning in January or February… or Jonathan Bernier slotting into the top two with either Swayman starting the year in Providence or hoping Vladar clears waivers.)