Entering their Black Friday matinée with the Orlando Magic, the qualifications for the Celtics to advance to the knockout round of the NBA’s inaugural In-Season Tournament were simple: Win and you're in.
With a win, the Celtics would have clinched their group, and a spot in the quarterfinals.
Instead, Boston suffered its most lopsided loss of the season, losing by 17 points. It’s Boston’s only double-digit loss this season, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time, considering the tiebreaker format of the In-Season Tournament.
The tiebreakers are as follows.
-Head-to-head record in Group play
-Point differential in the Group play
-Total points scored in the Group play
-Regular season record from the 2022-23 NBA regular season
-Random drawing
With the 17-point loss, the Celtics’ point differential dwindled to +0, as they will now need a blowout win against the Chicago Bulls at TD Garden on Tuesday night to stay alive.
While there is still hope for the Celtics to advance, the odds aren’t necessarily in their favor.
Here is what needs to happen in order for the Celtics to advance to the knockout stage.
How the Celtics can clinch their group
The Celtics beat the Bulls by at least 23 points + the Nets beat the Raptors + Boston has a better point differential than the Nets, who currently have an eight-point advantage.
If this happens, the Celtics, Magic, and Nets would all finish 3-1 in Group play, and it would be a three-way tie for first place in their group. Because the Celtics beat the Nets, the Nets beat the Magic, and the Magic beat the Celtics, the head-to-head record in group play would not apply, meaning the tiebreaker would come down to point differential.
Boston will need Toronto to keep the game close in a losing effort against Brooklyn. However, that won't matter unless the Celtics win by at least 23 points.
How the Celtics can clinch a Wild Card spot
Each Conference will have one Wild Card team - The team from each conference with the best record in Group Play games that finished second in their group.
There are a few ways Boston can clinch a Wild Card spot.
1.) The Celtics beat the Bulls + the Raptors beat the Nets + the Bucks beat the Heat + the Hornets beat the Knicks + the Hawks beat the Cavaliers.
2.) The Celtics beat the Bulls + finish second in their group + the Celtics win the tiebreaker over any other second-place team from another group with a 3-1 record.
3.) The Hawks beat the Cavaliers + the Hornets beat the Knicks + the Bucks beat the Heat + the Raptors beat the Nets + the Celtics win the tiebreaker over any second-place team from another group.
If the Celtics are eliminated, they will be scheduled two regular-season games, one home and one away game, against teams eliminated prior to the knockout rounds. Those games will take place next Wednesday and Friday. A formulaic approach will determine the matchups for these games using the Group Play standings in each conference.
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