It might be too soon too know if Lamar Jackson is truly done in Baltimore at this point. But last night’s playoff loss to the Cincinnati Bengals and the lead-up to it must feel like a major inflection point in the relationship between Jackson and the Ravens as they appear set for a contract impasse this spring and summer.
Will the Ravens finally blink and give Jackson that five-year, fully guaranteed deal he’s seeking? Or are we headed for a franchise tag and a potential holdout (or hold-in)?
It’s hard to argue Jackson’s value as a player when he’s on the field. But he’s also finished the last two seasons injured and made things awkward this year by possibly holding in due to his contract situation after suffering a knee injury that knocked him out of action toward the end of the year. The Ravens probably lost a playoff game Sunday night because he wasn’t on the field.
Could a team like the Patriots exploit the ensuing chaos, swoop in and potentially steal a franchise quarterback away from the Ravens? The door to do so could be slightly ajar in the coming months — if the Patriots are willing to pay up.
There’s almost no way Baltimore will allow Jackson to hit unrestricted free agency where any team could throw a bag at him — perhaps even the fully guaranteed one he so desires. So let’s assume he gets a franchise tag to get him under contract if they’re not able to reach an agreement before free agency opens.
Signing Jackson to an exclusive franchise tag — teams can’t negotiate deals with him or sign him to an offer sheet — would pay him the average of five current highest-paid quarterbacks in the league (around $45 million) for one year. That’s astronomical. Also, Jackson would almost certainly prefer long-term security over a big one-year bag.
There’s also the transition tag, which would cost much less (about $30 million, or about the average of the top ten highest-paid players at the position) and secures right of first refusal on any deal Jackson would sign with another team.
The most intriguing option the Ravens could turn to, though, is the non-exclusive franchise tag. That one would pay Jackson slightly more than the transition tag for a year (about $32 million) and would net Baltimore two first-round picks if the quarterback were to sign with another team. Much like tenders for restricted free agents — something the Patriots use often — the Ravens could sign Jackson to a non-exclusive tag and dare a team to give up the draft capital needed to pry him away.
Now, would New England actually go for something like that if it came down to it — giving up the immediate future for a top quarterback?
There’s no doubt the Patriots could use a dynamic player like Jackson, period, given how few of those players they have on the offensive side of the ball.
At quarterback, no less? Think what you will of his player style, but Jackson is clearly one of the only quarterbacks in football capable of elevating an average group of skill players and turning them into high-scoring offenses year in and year out.
But it’s worth wondering if Belichick will look at the way Jackson’s contract situation has unfolded and simply say, “No, thanks.”
The old-schooler in Belichick probably revolts at the idea of a player creating a sideshow heading into a playoff game the way Jackson did with his knee injury. Assuming Jackson was indeed too hurt to play, which is reasonable to accept, having to answer questions about the uncertainty of his quarterback’s health due to lingering contract talks — only to have said quarterback tweet details about the injury on social media — would probably be infuriating for the coach.
Then, there’s the aspect of Belichick having to negotiate with Jackson, who is not represented by an agent and seemingly refuses to hire one. Aside from having to deal with whomever is whispering into Jackson’s ear on the side, in what world could we see Belichick ever signing anyone, especially a quarterback, to a fully guaranteed deal? He didn’t even do that for Tom Brady in the end.
In a vacuum, there’s no way Belichick would ever choose a player like Mac Jones over Lamar Jackson. The talent difference and the threat they pose opponents isn’t even in the same galaxy.
But in the cold, calculating world of football business and what Belichick values on the field as a whole and at quarterback mode specifically, it’s far easier to see Jones as the starting quarterback of the Patriots next year than Jackson.