The Stanley Cup Playoffs are here! While there are still a few regular-season games left around the NHL (including an important Avalanche game Thursday night that will decide first place in the West Division), the 16-team postseason field is set, and the action gets underway Saturday night with Game 1 of Bruins-Capitals.
As a reminder of how the playoffs work this year: The first two rounds are all played within each of the four divisions. The four division champions then get re-seeded for the final four and matched up based on points percentage.
So, who are the favorites? And where do the Bruins rank? Here are our power rankings of the 16 playoff teams (all stats from NHL.com, Hockey-Reference or Evolving-Hockey):
16. Winnipeg Jets
The Jets have been a straight-up bad team over the last month, going an NHL-worst 4-10-0 since the April 12 trade deadline. Let me make that clear: Not the worst among the 16 playoff teams; the worst among all 31 NHL teams. They’re 26th in total offense and 25th in five-on-five offense during that time. Fortunately for them, they’re in the dumpster fire that is the North Division -- easily the weakest division in the NHL this season -- and managed to sleep-walk into the playoffs (and still get the three-seed) anyways. Their only hope of making noise is for reigning Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck to steal games. He’s great, but he’s not a miracle worker.
15. Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens have been only a little better than the Jets since the trade deadline, going 7-9-1 and getting outscored by more than a goal per game. They have been particularly poor at five-on-five, with an NHL-worst minus-18 goal differential at five-on-five over the last month. The Habs are expected to get some key players back just in time for the playoffs (Carey Price, Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher and Shea Weber), but they weren’t a great team even before those injuries, and Price isn’t the Price of old.
14. St. Louis Blues
The Blues looked to be in serious danger of missing the playoffs back at the trade deadline and were reportedly considering selling off pieces. They’ve done enough to beat out a poor Coyotes team for the fourth playoff spot in the top-heavy West Division, but they still haven’t been great. They’re 6-4-3 over the last month, they’ve been outscored at five-on-five, and they’re 26th in Corsi (45.6%) during that time. There’s obviously some playoff pedigree with a bunch of guys who were on the 2019 Cup-winning team, but this team doesn’t look like that one, and this Jordan Binnington isn’t playing like that one.
13. Nashville Predators
Another team that was considered a down-and-out potential seller at one point. Well, the Predators hung on to Mattias Ekholm, Mikael Granlund, Calle Jarnkrok and everyone else, put together an 8-4-1 post-deadline record, and beat out a Stars team that went to the Stanley Cup Final last year for the fourth and final playoff spot in the Central Division. Juuse Saros has been lights-out in goal, going 18-6-1 with a .941 save percentage over his last 25 starts. He’s the biggest reason the Predators feel like the first team on this list that could legitimately put a top opponent (the Hurricanes in this case) on upset alert.
12. New York Islanders
At one point the Islanders looked like maybe the best team in the East Division, especially if you watched them play the Bruins, whom they beat in each of their first five meetings this season. But then Anders Lee suffered a season-ending injury, trade deadline acquisitions Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac haven’t made the same impact as other midseason additions in the division, and the Islanders went 5-6-3 over the final month of the season. You still shouldn’t count out a Barry Trotz-coached team that has Vezina candidate Semyon Varlamov in goal, but right now they do clearly look like the fourth team in their division.
11. Edmonton Oilers
Is it possible Connor McDavid keeps going full scorched earth all the way to the final four or further? Sure. The guy has 104 points in 55 games this season, including an absurd 35 in the last 13. The Oilers are still a team without much depth, though. Mike Smith -- yes, 39-year-old Mike Smith -- has had a very good season in goal, but trusting him for a long playoff run still feels precarious. They have the best power play in the NHL, but are basically league average at five-on-five. They should have a fairly easy go of it in the first round, but still look like clear underdogs for a second-round series against Toronto.
10. Washington Capitals
A lot of talk around Boston seems to be treating the Capitals as one of the true juggernauts of this field, but they’re a team with a lot of question marks, including around the availability of John Carlson (lower body), T.J. Oshie (lower body) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (COVID protocol). Their top six forwards are definitely dangerous when healthy, especially on the power play, but they rank 17th in team defense on the season and goalies Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov have basically been .900 save percentage goalies over the last month and a half. As a team, they’re a plus-2 at five-on-five since the trade deadline (plus-1 if you take out Tuesday’s finale against the JV Bruins).
9. Minnesota Wild
The Wild have the best record in the NHL since the trade deadline (11-1-2) and there’s definitely a case to be made for putting them higher, but their 46.3% Corsi on the season and lack of dynamic offensive players outside of Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala are red flags. Goalie Cam Talbot has been better in the playoffs than you might think, with a .924 save percentage in 23 games across his last two playoff runs with Calgary last year and Edmonton in 2017. Wild-Avalanche or Wild-Golden Knights is certainly one of the sexiest first-round matchups on paper, but the Wild are still the underdogs despite their excellent last month.
8. Florida Panthers
Left for dead after top defenseman Aaron Ekblad broke his leg on March 29, the Panthers instead have the third-best record in the NHL since then at 15-5-1. They’re third in overall goal differential and fourth in five-on-five goal differential in that time. On the season, they own the league’s fourth-best record and rank third in expected goals-for percentage. Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau are studs, and MacKenzie Weegar might be the most underrated defenseman in the NHL. Most of this roster is still unproven in the playoffs, though, and they get the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning in the first round. Sergei Bobrovsky, with a second straight subpar season, doesn’t instill a ton of confidence in goal either.
7. Pittsburgh Penguins
Jeff Carter has been one of the biggest steals of the trade deadline, as the veteran has scored nine goals in 14 games since arriving in Pittsburgh, providing some critical offensive depth behind the top line of Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust. Add in the recent return of Evgeni Malkin after missing a month and a half due to injury and improved defensive play in the second half of the season, and the Penguins look like a pretty dangerous team. There are definitely still question marks in goal with Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith, though, and that keeps them from being ranked higher.
6. Toronto Maple Leafs
After years of being stuck behind the Lightning and Bruins in the Atlantic Division, the Maple Leafs have gotten to be the clear top team in the North Division all season long this year. Anything less than winning the divisional playoffs and reaching the final four would be a disappointment. They still have the elite offensive talent of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander; they added key veteran depth with the likes of Joe Thornton, Jason Spezza, Wayne Simmonds and Nick Foligno; and T.J. Brodie and Zach Bogosian have helped solidify their blue line. Jack Campbell has been very good in net since taking over the starting job, but the 29-year-old has never started a playoff game. What the Leafs do if and when they get to the final four and face a better team than they’ve had to face all season will be interesting.
5. Tampa Bay Lightning
It seems like there are a lot of people assuming the defending champs are going to get healthy, put their second-half struggles behind them, flip the switch, and go right back to being their usual dominant selves for the postseason. It’s entirely possible that’s exactly how it plays out, but it’s not a given by any means. We don’t know for sure that Nikita Kucherov (out all regular season after hip surgery) and Steven Stamkos (out the last five weeks with a lower-body injury) are going to be back for Game 1, or how much longer after that it will be if they’re not. Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, Ondrej Palat and Barclay Goodrow have all been banged up and missed games recently, too. The Lightning are just 8-6-1 since the trade deadline (including three straight losses to close out the season in which they got outscored 14-3) and the only teams with a worse five-on-five goal differential since then are the Blackhawks, Devils, Sabres, Sharks and Canadiens. Andrei Vasilevskiy, once a lock to win the Vezina, has opened the door for a challenger with an .897 save percentage over his final nine starts. Writing off the Lightning would be extremely foolish -- they’re still as good as anyone when they’re healthy and on their game -- but completely dismissing all those concerns would be a bit foolish as well.
4. Boston Bruins
The Bruins’ trade deadline moves -- specifically the addition of Taylor Hall -- transformed them from a middling bubble team to a legitimate Cup contender. Over the last month: 12-4-1 record, first in total defense (1.88 goals against per game), sixth in total offense (3.41 goals per game), first in five-on-five goal differential (plus-21), first in shots on goal share (59.5%), first in expected goals share (60.9%), third in Corsi (57.1%). With the new-look second line of Hall, David Krejci and Craig Smith outscoring opponents 13-1, the Bruins now have two of the best lines in the NHL, as that trio and Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-David Pastrnak are two of the top seven lines in the league in goal differential. If Tuukka Rask falters at all in goal, they can turn to rookie Jeremy Swayman, whose .945 save percentage in 10 starts is first in the NHL.
3. Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes did well to finish first in the Central and avoid having to face Tampa or Florida in the first round, and they earned that first-place finish as arguably the most complete team in the NHL. They have both top-end talent and depth up front and on defense. They’re elite at five-on-five, on the power play and on the penalty kill. They’re getting some of the best goaltending in the NHL from the combination of Alex Nedeljkovic and Petr Mrazek. They do still need to prove they’re ready to take the next step in the postseason, though. Remember: This is the team the Bruins swept in the conference finals two years ago and beat in five games in the first round last year. But as this year’s playoffs begin, the Hurricanes are as deep, as well-rounded and -- critically -- as healthy as anyone.
2. Vegas Golden Knights
1. Colorado Avalanche
The top two teams in the West have been arguably the two best teams in the NHL all season long, with the two best records in the league standing as evidence. They’re so close that the order probably flips if the Avalanche aren’t able to clinch the top seed Thursday night. A second-round matchup between these two has the potential to be the best series of the whole postseason, but whoever finishes second will have to take care of the pesky Wild first -- and Vegas, by the way, went just 3-4-1 against Minnesota this season.
The Golden Knights need to get Max Pacioretty and Alec Martinez back for the start of the playoffs. As long as Pacioretty is good to go, they have as good a top two lines as anyone with Pacioretty, Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone on the first, and Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Reilly Smith (remember him?) on the second. Martinez’s return would shore up one of the best defenses in the NHL, a group that also includes Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo. And in goal, Marc-Andre Fleury is having a Vezina-caliber season and brings plenty of playoff experience, while Robin Lehner could be the best 1A in the league.
For the Avalanche, meanwhile, star center Nathan MacKinnon was ruled out for the final two games of the regular season. Coach Jared Bednar said he will “hopefully” be back for Game 1 of the playoffs. Colorado has also been without Brandon Saad down the stretch, and it’s unclear if he’ll be ready for the start of the postseason. MacKinnon gives the Avs arguably the best line in the NHL with Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen on his wings, and there’s a lot of depth behind them. Cale Makar, Samuel Girard and Devon Toews give them the league’s best 1-2-3 punch on the blue line and add to the NHL’s highest-scoring offense. Philipp Grubauer has been stellar in goal, although they do lack depth behind him.