The NHL’s March 3 trade deadline is now just a week and a half away, and there continue to be plenty of rumors swirling around the Bruins.
Last week, we took a closer look at forward Ivan Barbashev as well as defensemen Jakob Chychrun and Luke Schenn.
Over the weekend, the Bruins surfaced as a focal point for another defenseman: Columbus’ Vladislav Gavrikov. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said on “Hockey Night in Canada” Saturday that the Bruins “are in on” Gavrikov, but that they “have to do some things to make this work” cap-wise.
The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline also wrote on Saturday that “it’s believed the Jackets have a trade in place [involving Gavrikov] that requires another transaction to take place first.” He did not name the team they apparently have a trade in place with, but plenty of people put his report and Friedman’s together and made the assumption that it must be the Bruins.
Not so fast? Matt Porter of the Boston Globe reported on Monday that the Bruins “did not have a deal for Gavrikov in place as of Sunday afternoon,” but that they have talked to the Blue Jackets about him. On Tuesday, though, The Fourth Period's David Pagnotta reported that the Bruins and Blue Jackets do "have the framework of a trade in place."
OK then! At the very least, it seems safe to say that the Bruins have a good amount of interest in Gavrikov. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the pros and cons of trading for the 27-year-old left-shot defenseman.
Pro: He’s better than other pure depth options. Gavrikov isn’t close to an Erik Karlsson or even a Chychrun at the very top of the trade market, but his game is more well-rounded than depth targets like Schenn, Dmitry Kulikov or Nick Seeler. He can be an everyday player for any contender and possibly even a top-four defender for some of them. He has played over 22 minutes per game each of the last two seasons, leads the Blue Jackets in penalty kill time on ice, had positive defensive metrics until this season (Columbus being the second-worst team in the NHL isn’t helping anyone’s metrics this year), and flashed a little bit of offense with 33 points last season. Adding Gavrikov without subtracting another defenseman would easily give the Bruins the best seven-deep D group in the NHL.
Con: He’s not a guaranteed difference-maker for the Bruins, though. As we mentioned, Gavrikov can and probably should be an everyday player on any team he goes to. Boston is one spot that might not be guaranteed, though. The Bruins have been rolling out the same six defensemen for nearly three months straight, and there’s been little to complain about. All six are playing well this season and all three of their current pairs have found a groove. That doesn’t mean the Bruins shouldn’t try to add -- we know they’re almost certainly going to have to deal with an injury or two at some point -- but it does raise questions about exactly where Gavrikov would fit. Is he good enough to play next to Charlie McAvoy? If he’s put with Brandon Carlo, would that pairing struggle to move the puck? Gavrikov isn’t a stiff with the puck on his stick, but it’s not really a strength either. Is he bumping Derek Forbort or Connor Clifton out of the lineup? It would be a good problem to have, but it might be tough to justify Gavrikov being a healthy scratch because…
Con: Columbus’ reported asking price. According to Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli, the Blue Jackets are seeking a package that would match or exceed what they got from Tampa for David Savard two years ago, which was a first- and third-round pick. If you’re giving up a first-round pick, ideally it would be for a surefire, everyday lineup upgrade. And again, Gavrikov might very well prove to be that for the Bruins, but it doesn’t seem like a guarantee at all. Bruins general manager Don Sweeney has also tried to avoid giving up a first-round pick for a pure rental in recent years, which brings us to…
Con: He might be just a rental. Gavrikov is set to be an unrestricted free agent after the season. The Blue Jackets are allowing Gavrikov’s agent to discuss an extension with potential suitors, which is encouraging, but signing Gavrikov to a new contract may be a luxury the Bruins simply can’t afford. They already have seven defensemen signed to NHL contracts for next season. They are projected to have nearly $22 million in cap space, but that is going to dry up quickly with just six of their current forwards signed for next season and -- we expect -- a big-money deal for David Pastrnak on the way. Any plan to extend Gavrikov would almost certainly have to include another defenseman being moved out either now or after the season.
Pro: His salary. Speaking of contracts, Gavrikov is currently making a very reasonable $2.8 million. As Friedman noted, the Bruins would still have to do some cap maneuvering to fit even that in -- whether it be a contract going out or throwing in an extra pick or two to have salary retained. Still, the maneuvering is easier for a player at that price point than someone in the $4-5 million range or even higher.
Pro: His size and durability. Gavrikov is 6-foot-3, 221 pounds, and -- prior to Columbus sitting him in anticipation of a trade -- had missed just four games total over the last three seasons. If you’re concerned about Matt Grzelcyk’s size come playoffs or Grzelcyk and Carlo’s injury history, Gavrikov makes for a pretty good counterweight.
Con: His play doesn’t always match his reputation. Look up any scouting report on Gavrikov and you’ll see things like “shutdown defenseman” and “plays with an edge.” Sounds great, right? It might not be entirely accurate, though. As we mentioned, Gavrikov has had positive defensive metrics, like Evolving-Hockey’s expected defensive goals above replacement (xDef), in past seasons, but never anything that screams elite shutdown player. He’s middle-of-the-pack in xDef on his own team this season and the player card below from @JFreshHockey and @TopDownHockey shows decline over the last two years. As for his physicality, Gavrikov is ninth on his own team in hits this season with 56 in 52 games. He’s not soft by any means, but he’s similar to someone like Carlo in that he’ll use his size to effectively defend but won’t be throwing a ton of big hits. I am personally of the belief that racking up hits isn’t especially important in today’s NHL, but just wanted to point out that Gavrikov isn’t really the bruiser many Bruins fans seem to think the team needs.
Pro: He’s good on the PK. Gavrikov leads the Blue Jackets in shorthanded time on ice and grades out well in that area (again, see the card below). He’s a good shot blocker, has a good stick, and can use his size and strength to clear guys from the front of the net. Adding Gavrikov to the Bruins’ PK could potentially lighten the shorthanded workloads of McAvoy and/or Hampus Lindholm, freeing them up for even more 5-on-5 shifts, where they do their best work. He'd also provide insurance if something happened to Forbort -- remember how much the Bruins' PK suffered when he was out earlier this season?
