1. CLEAN UP, AISLE PATS - No need to go on about the disappointing season for the Patriots, or how they lack the talent to keep up with most teams in the league, or how embarrassing last Sunday’s 34-15 defeat (that wasn’t that close) in Miami was. They have a long way to go, from sideline to huddle, front office to end zone. Everyone from the cheap seats to the radio booth knows this operation has loads of work to do to return to form.
“But there’s so much work to do, where should they start?” How about with the little things, like penalties.
Last Sunday the Patriots were whistled for 13 penalties overall, 9 in the first with 10 accepted for 75 yards. All unacceptable numbers. Most were on the offensive line (who we will play the sad trombone for, again, later), with several being pre-snap fouls. Vederian Lowe alone had three before halftime. These numbers are all hallmarks of a disorganized, poorly coached team, talent levels be damned. Even the worst players with negative PFF grades (no such thing, really, but work with me) can wait till the QB says, “Hike!” From Mayo to OC Alex Van Pelt to offensive line coach Scott Peters, everyone needs to do better. The talent disparity between the Pats and everyone else is already significant enough. They needn’t do more to make it easier for teams to beat them. Yet Own Worst Enemy Syndrome seems to be another of their issues.
This is where the Football IQ factor comes in. Hate to ask, but just how smart is this team? How smart is the coaching staff and the people in charge of the operation? While we expect the team to struggle, one might think we’d see signs of improvement in one or many places beyond QB…though even he had issues last Sunday (slack cut, he’s 22 and just started his seventh game in the NFL.) Van Pelt, who’s been working hand in hand with Maye since April, let people know he is expecting better out of his rookie QB already, as turnovers, especially later in games, have been an issue.
Most fans would excuse Maye’s INTs in winning time and chalk it up to the rookie learning curve, or even excuse them away due to the lack of talent surrounding him. Maye himself this week said he has to be smarter with the football, and with what we’ve seen and heard from him thus far we believe he’ll make it a point of emphasis. Still, five fumbles and seven picks through seven starts can be better. And yes, we know, Peyton Manning led the league in INTs his rookie season, then in TDs the next season. Again, Maye is not a chief concern.
The coaching staff having issues in-game, at times seeming unprepared, getting out-coached with adjustments, players continue to make mistakes…none of this is particularly confidence inspiring. Some fans seem to be OK with the coaching staff being graded along a similar learning curve to the QB.
While others believe the time Jerod Mayo had on Bill Belichick’s coaching staff, not to mention the time to prepare once anointed the new HC, doesn’t allow for excuses.
The fracture in Pats Nation over Mayo’s qualifications and evolution has been ongoing since his introductory presser in January 2024. That debate will likely continue until and if his team shows signs of improvement, or he’s dismissed. The same can be said for the people surrounding him, from the coordinators to Eliot Wolf and others in the front office. Wolf’s first free agent class and draft, respectively, have largely struck out save for Maye (it’s the holidays so we’ll be kind here.) The scrutiny he’s facing seems justified.
Sunday’s game against the Colts is a winnable affair, as more games on the 2024 slate have been than not, yet here we are, 3-9. A win heading into the bye would be great for the team to feel better about themselves, creating positive momentum for their final four games of the season. Fostering a winning culture, a hallmark for Mayo in his many speeches, begins with actually winning. That means the coaches have to improve their football intelligence and then pass it along to the players.
For those looking for a sign that the efforts are being undertaken, take Jerod Mayo’s admission on Friday that on Thanksgiving, while the Bears were finding a way to botch the end of their game against the Lions, he called coaching assistant Evan Rothstein to discuss what the team would have done and how they would have handled Caleb Williams mismanaging the clock and (then) coach Matt Eberflus watching stoically from the sideline as his team fell apart in the final moments.
The Bears blew a chance to tie or win the game, losing 23-20 by their own blunder. Eberflus, confident he would finish the season, was relieved of his duties Friday morning, the first time the Bears franchise fired a head coach before season’s end. That Mayo was working on the holiday, having a critical conversation while many would be feasting or napping or both is a sign that effort is being put in to improve. If this effort will somehow translate over to the field sooner than later perhaps victories, brighter horizons or at least confidence that the Pats are doing what’s needed to improve will settle into the team and fans. Their latest IQ test starts Sunday, 1 p.m. at Gillette Stadium. All players, coaches, coordinators and more will be tested.
2. PEPPERS RETURN - A second piece of the missing backbone of the Patriots defense returned to the practice field this week with safety Jabrill Peppers returning to the team after being removed from the Commissioner’s Exempt list. Defensive tackle Christian Barmore returned two weeks ago after missing more than half the season with a blood clot issue, while linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley remains down for the season after tearing his pectoral muscle in the season opening win vs. Cincinnati.
Peppers was placed on the list on Oct. 9 following an arrest that stemmed from an incident that occurred in Braintree between him and his girlfriend Oct. 7. The charges against Peppers are serious and discomforting to many - assault and battery with a dangerous weapon and possession of a Class “B” substance (cocaine.) Peppers, who pleaded not guilty in court and has a trial date set in January after the season, has maintained that his legal team has evidence that will exonerate him. Owner Robert Kraft said if it’s discovered Peppers is guilty of what he’s accused of, he will be immediately released. Coach Jerod Mayo said directly after the arrest, “Any act of domestic violence is unacceptable for us. With that being said, I do think that Jabrill has to go through the system, has to continue to go through due process. We’ll see how that works out.”
The team is excited to have one of the hardest hitting and best run stopping (graded second best in 2023) safeties back in the fold. “I’m excited, and he’s excited to be here, too, as we would expect,” said safeties coach Brian Belichick of Peppers, who the team has sorely missed during his absence.
The safety position has been a sore spot all season with Kyle Dugger missing multiple games with an ankle injury (which he still looks to be hampered by) and Jaylinn Hawkins, Dell Pettus and Marte Mapu trying to hold down the fort. When healthy Dugger and Peppers represent one of the best safety duos in the league, one of the reasons why people were bullish on the 2024 defense being as stout if not better than 2023. Given the injuries sustained along all three levels, the defense has taken a big step back in 2024.
However, Peppers himself acknowledged he’s uncertain whether he’ll play Sunday vs. Indianapolis, while the team faces a delicate situation to navigate. The league has cleared him to return, but charges have not been officially dropped. Does New England, excitement for his return withstanding, play Peppers and run the risk of PR blowback should a guilty verdict come to pass next year? Will his return upset any fans given the nature of the charges and accusation?
Innocent until proven guilty at all levels, of course, but with how careful the team has been about situations involving violent accusations and domestic confrontations, it bears monitoring how they handle this. One need not look back further than the Pats cutting receiver Antonio Brown after just 11 days with the team following reports he sent threatening texts to a woman who accused him of sexual misconduct. Many are excited to see Peppers and his signature physical style back on the field. Some, outside of opponents, may not. It is worth noting that, according to MassLive, the team has done their own investigation and appears to feel comfortable with his return to action. Expect to see Peppers manning his spot in the secondary sooner rather than later.
3. RECEIVER BELIEVER - When anyone says, “The Patriots are the worst at drafting wide receivers!”, they’re not just sharing an opinion, one full of frustration for the Foxboro Faithful, too. They are in fact just stating facts, or so our own Meghan Ottolini painstakingly discovered this week.
So no, you’re not crazy. They really have been the worst in the AFC over the past decade at drafting pass catchers, and it’s not particularly close. Not since the gold rush of the 2010 draft with Gronk and Aaron Hernandez have they really nabbed a receiver or tight end of any consequence. So if it feels like it’s been longer than a decade, it has. Futile efforts have been made to draft multiple receivers, like 2013 (Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce and Kenbrell Thompkins), long before the Pats attempted to double dip this year with Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. The release of Tyquan Thornton, the 2022 second-round flop, only exacerbated the situation.
Polk and Baker have struggled mightily thus far, to say the least, leading many to fear, thanks to recent history, that they too will add to the running tally of recent receiver busts. Polk has been his own worst enemy, a repeat mistake offender - drops and penalties being his double trouble thus far, more prolific on social media than on the field, sadly.
Meanwhile Baker has barely been on the field. The talented wideout from Central Florida has but a single target on the season, plus a handful of kickoff returns. He did make it on field for 11 plays last Sunday vs Miami, a season high, saying after that “everything is starting to click” afterward. Perhaps he’ll get a chance to develop a connection with Drake Maye and break this recent curse as the team, sitting at 3-9, may want to see what they have in the young guys going forward. Sky could be the limit for Baker, who has the size, speed and hands but understanding and maturity have evaded him to date.
Of note - it will be interesting to see how Indianapolis’s rookie wideout Adonai Mitchell, selected between Polk and Baker, performs this weekend. Mitchell has hardly blossomed into a star, but has made some splash plays and looks to be developing versus the stasis Baker is in and the sea of regression and doubt Polk has his raft in.
As far as the past decade plus goes…two outliers exist in the recent analysis: first being 2016’s Malcolm Mitchell, who had a solid rookie year, capped off by a tremendous Super Bowl 51 performance. However, a chronic knee issue led to Mitchell playing only one season in the NFL, thus leaving him in the disappointment pile. The second is 2023’s DeMario Douglas. The jury is still out on Pop. He’s shown potential to be a dependable and dynamic slot threat for the team. However, the sixth-rounder out of Liberty has been inconsistent of late and has allowed some doubt to creep into the minds of those who tabbed him as a 2024 breakout candidate. Here’s hoping he finishes the season strong to help reverse this trend.
For those saying, “But what about Jakobi Meyers? He was really good for the Pats.” HE WAS! But also he was an undrafted free agent pickup in 2019 who was salvaged in desperation by Cam Newton in the 2020 campaign. Oh, and then they foolishly let him leave in favor of JuJu Smith-Schuster. Insert Bob Lobel’s signature line about getting guys like that here.
How and why Bill Belichick and Matt Groh and Eliot Wolf and many others have not been able to select a single good, very good or elite receiver of any kind is beyond us. Remember 2020’s Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene double dip? Try not to. It’s like a jinx or weird self-fulfilling prophecy at this point. If only the Pats could get a peek at San Francisco or Pittsburgh’s pre-draft receiver analysis. If Polk or Baker or Douglas can make an impact over the final five games they’ll be legends in these parts given the receiver desperation. Our money is still on Baker. We were on board in April, and with stocks so low there’s no reason to sell now!
4. THE WOE LINE - We promise to try and not bemoan the reality of the Patriots offensive line here on a weekly basis. It feels cruel since we all hold their inadequacy to be true. However, when overall ratings are refreshed and your team once again finishes dead last in overall line play - pass block, run block, you name it - you can’t help but wonder aloud again just how we got here.
Drake Maye was on the run and under duress for the majority of last weekend’s abysmal showing in Miami. Chop Robinson practically lived in the backfield for the majority of the game. Right tackle Demontrey Jacobs looked lost and overmatched for three hours. We already discussed the glut of penalties pre and post snap. And no matter how much we banter about symmetry or continuity and Monday night dinners, this group’s camaraderie was just flat-out not going to get it done. Thus, someone had to seemingly pay the price, so left guard Michael Jordan, who had a brutal game himself yet had registered the second most snaps along the line in the 2024 season, was released this past week.
Jordan is a journeyman six-year veteran who was released coming out of camp then called up from the practice squad out of desperation and need, two common themes for this line, never good signs for their quality of play. He started 11 games, got released again, reverted back to the practice squad, and now -- on Saturday afternoon -- got elevated back to the active roster. Round and round he goes.
After Jordan's release earlier in the week, the Patriots also claimed guard Lester Cotton off of waivers from said Dolphins. Cotton also entered the NFL in 2019 and has bounced around a bit. Should current trends continue the Pats could tie or set the all-time record for most linemen played in a season. Probably not how Mayo, Wolf and line coach Scott Peters drew it up.
Elsewhere in offensive line news, third-year guard Cole Strange, back from his knee injury in 2023, could return to the lineup soon. Mayo said Friday that Strange won’t be ready for the Colts game Sunday, also adding that guard Sidy Sow will be getting some looks at tackle going forward, too. This kind of mix ‘n match line play is dizzying and hardly by the book for success. As for Strange…he’s been back at practice and taken reps at guard and center, a potential fit and need for the team going forward with David Andrews, 10 years in and injured for the season again. We’ll see if he comes back and improves their level of play. But more is needed from the line to put it lightly.
Assuming the line will finally jell or pick it up or that Strange will be the rug that ties the room together would be foolhardy. The line has been baseline disastrous for the majority of the season, and when paired with the lack of explosiveness of the receiver room we see why doubt exists in Pats Nation as far as Exec VP of Player Personnel Eliot Wolf’s job confidence goes. With a growing list of needs for this team in 2025 via free agency and the draft (receiver one, cornerback two, etc…), anything short of prioritizing offensive line - guard, tackle, both, yes and more - and building for Drake Maye’s success and health along the trenches, would be negligent and absurd. Sometimes it really is that simple.
5. MY CAUSE, MY CLEATS - Weeks 13 and 14 in the NFL season represent an emotional and festive occasion for players, and not just because the holiday season is upon us…or in the case of the Patriots wearing the Pat the Patriot throwback reds once again. The “My Cause, My Cleats” campaign begins for a two-week stretch where, as it reads on the NFL’s official website, “Players reveal their passions beyond the game and wear their hearts on their feet through My Cause My Cleats. Players have the opportunity to pick a cause that is important to them and represent their chosen organization on custom designed cleats.”
The cleats can be decorative, fancy, simple, colorful, bold, whatever conveys their message for the foundation or charity they happen to be supporting (you can read a list of the causes Patriots players are supporting and see their cleats via the team’s website.) This is the first time Drake Maye has participated, and he chose to highlight Special Olympics Massachusetts and the Special Olympics Games.
Maye, the youngest of four brothers in a very athletic family, knows how important sports can be to us all on a number of levels, so this cause seems to come straight from the heart. Of the many initiatives the NFL has undertaken in recent years - Crucial Catch for cancer screening and awareness, Salute to Service for the US military among the many - this one seems to really hit home for many players, allowing them to share a special part of themselves, something they are passionate about and empathetic toward, in a unique and stylish manner.
Another excellent idea - many of the game worn custom cleats can be bid on after game usage to help players raise funds for their featured causes as well. Also, full disclosure, it was this week when we first learned the NFL has an auction site for these cleats and many other game used memorabilia items.
6. THREEPEAT - No, we’re not talking about what the Kansas City Chiefs are looking to accomplish in winning three straight Super Bowls this season, something no team has done in the modern era (how the fates let them continue to win games like Friday’s 19-17 W over Las Vegas is beyond us). Sadly, for the third straight season and fourth in five, the New England Patriots will finish with a losing record and not be making the playoffs. Once an assumed regular and established contender, expected to make championship pushes with holiday-like regularity, now sitting at home to watch everyone else like Kansas City and Buffalo is starting to become the norm.
OK, technically they haven’t been eliminated YET (though the AFC East is officially out of reach and Buffalo can go for their fifth straight tonight when they host San Francisco). However, we all know their season ends Jan. 5, and while owner Robert Kraft adjusted expectations in-season from “I want playoffs!” to “I expect this turnaround to take some time!”, behind very expensive closed doors the organization has to be very disappointed.
This all serves as a reminder as to how good things were for so long and how with Brady and Belichick’s Patriots a permanent fixture in the postseason for two decades we lived virtually in a non-reality, and we loved it! Also, you see again how difficult it is to win and win enough to extend seasons and play into January with meaning. And yes, sadly, we see how far the team has fallen and how hard it is to turn around and rebuild to contender status.
This season always needed to be about the turnaround, or at least the first glance of improvement, and sadly outside of Maye it’s a valid question to ask where they’ve improved at all thus far. We see Drake Maye has the potential to be something special. The team is auditioning players at a wild almost unforeseen rate across both sides of the ball. If they continue to falter over the final five games then it feels like 2025 will be a rudderless slog lumped into another draft and development year, playoffs likely not in the fold again going forward. Or they can use these five games as a chance to fix some issues, get their proverbial act together, showcase who will be here to be part of the solution and build momentum for a more fruitful 2025. That’s really all any fan or owner could ask.
For the record, three years is hardly a record span of playoff absence for the team, though it feels like an eternity. The team went eight years between playoff appearances from 1986-94, and 13 from 1963-76. How did the people of Pats Nation survive!
7. NTKs - As always, for the heartiest of Foxboro fans who want to be as prepared as possible, we offer our treasure trove of knowledge and nuggets that are the Need To Knows.
SPREAD: Indianapolis is a road favorite of 2.5 points, with an over/under of 42.5.
ALL-TIME: The Pats and Colts have gone to battle 84 times, including five postseason tilts, with New England holding a commanding 53-31 advantage. Ah, but for the days of vintage Brady vs Manning. Anyway…Indianapolis won the last meeting between the two, last season’s highly forgettable 10-7 loss in Frankfurt, Germany…the game that gave us the sad Robert Kraft puffy coat meme and also was essentially the end of Mac Jones’ time in New England. As far as postseason games go…the Pats are 4-1 in those five contests, with the one loss being that god-awful 2006 AFC Championship in the RCA Dome. It was 21-3 late in the second quarter! WHY?!?
WEATHER: OK, now the late fall/winter preview weather is here. Cloudy with some sun, a high of 37 degrees. Hand warmers and thermals might be smart.
BROADCAST: The game is set to kick off at 1 p.m. EST, broadcast on CBS (Ch. 4 locally), with Spero Dedes, Adam Archuletta and Aditi Kinkhabwala on the call for the second straight week. Lucky them/us.