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“Because fans expect championships almost annually, they easily become frustrated and are not going to buy into what the odds actually are: one in 20 or one in 30.”
The John Henry comments to the Financial Times are stickier than ever, and it's becoming increasingly clear washing them away is going to be a tall task.
They were a bit of dagger before a pitch was thrown Tuesday night, and now a Phillies' 4-1 win over the Red Sox, the knife was dug a little deeper. If there was one team that represents the opposite of Henry's newly-revealed mindset it is this Philadelphia club. And it seems to be working out pretty well for them.
The Phillies own the best record in the National League a season after getting to Game 7 of the National League Championship Series. And they are doing this all by not worrying about any odds.
Let's start with Henry's Philadelphia counterpart, Phillies owner John Middleton. This is what he told the Philadelphia Inquirer prior to last season:
The juxtaposition between Middleton's chief decision-maker, Dave Dombrowski, and how the Red Sox have been handling things have also been well-documented. While the analytical vision of Henry and Co. has gaining more and more momentum, Dombrowski's approach has yielded three postseason appearances in 4 1/2 seasons with the Red Sox, and 30 playoff games with the Phillies since taking over in 2021.
And during Dombrowski's first trip back to Fenway Park since his dismissal, his club smacked New Englanders in the face with how not worrying about the odds can pay big dividends.
The science behind the approach is simply based in being convicted in an approach and a player and oftentimes going above and beyond to realize those realites.
The Red Sox might have guffawed at Dombrowski and Co. when they inked Kyle Schwarber to a four-year, $80 million after Boston came in at around three years, $39 million. He was a player who didn't hit for a high batting average and would have a hard time finding a position to play.
Despite all the perfect fit Schwarber represented during the Red Sox' 2021 postseason run, the Sox surmised the odds suggested a reunion wasn't worth it. ("I loved my time in Boston. I enjoyed it a lot. In the offseason, I didn't hear much after the lockout," Schwarber told WEEI.com at the 2022 All-Star Game.)
Well, Schwarber had something to say ... without saying a word. First-pitch home run. Then another blast in the the fifth.
During his time in Philadelphia, Schwarber has hit 117 home runs and totaled an .826 OPS, with the Phillies going 234-175 in games he has played in. And that's not even accounting for the glue-guy he has represented in the Phils' clubhouse.
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The Red Sox didn't believe it was worth going back into business with relief pitcher Matt Strahm following the 2022 campaign. Dombrowski had a hunch, and was willing to invest $15 million over two years for the lefty.
He is now one of the best relievers in baseball, which the Red Sox were reminded of Tuesday night when Strahm struck out the side to lower his ERA to 0.67, having not given up an earned run since his first outing of the season ... in March.
At this point, the odds aren't in the Red Sox' favor. According to Fangraphs, they are sitting with a 13.7 percent chance of making the postseason. But, realize this: At this time last season, the Sox stood at 11.7 percent before climbing to 30 percent on Aug. 1.
That 30 percent, by the way, was just about the same as the Phillies' odds of making the playoffs one year ago.
Confusing? Fair.
But for some reason, what the team that beat the Red Sox Tuesday night isn't convoluted at all. Good players. Good clubhouse. Owner whose be-all, end-all goal is to win.
This we do know: The odds of that sort of concoction working is pretty good.