It used to be that teams would pay a little extra for some semblance of certainty. Now the investments are usually born from the exact opposite.
Uncertainty and potential rule the roost when it comes to free agent strategy more than ever, with the Red Sox taking the lead in such a mindset.
It's why the Carlos Rodón connection with Boston makes all the sense in the world.
According to the Chicago-area Daily-Herald, the Red Sox have joined the Angels, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers as teams interested in signing the 29-year-old starting pitcher.
Rodón's upside is unquestionable, with a good chunk of 2021 putting that reality on display. In 24 starts for the White Sox, the lefty totaled a 2.37 ERA, which would have been tops in the majors with a qualifying number of innings.
There was, of course, that no-hitter in Rodon's second outing of the season, with the pitcher giving up three or more earned runs in just five of his 24 starts.
So, why didn't the White Sox extend Rodón a qualifying offer, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting just a one-year deal worth $25 million? That's where the unknown comes in.
In Rodon's seven-year big league career he has managed as many as 28 starts just once, and that came in 2016. Since then he has undergone both shoulder surgery (2017) and Tommy John surgery (2019).
It was physical uncertainty that cropped up yet again in 2021, with Rodón succumbing to left shoulder fatigue in the season's second half. And while he did win four of his final five regular season starts - pitching to a 2.35 ERA - his only outing in the postseason was discouraging, being pulled after 2 2/3 innings in the White Sox' Game 4 loss to the Astros.
For the Red Sox, however, Rodón would seem to fit the bill.
He is a short-term investment with the kind of high-end stuff that's worthy of a few extra dollars. There would be no draft pick compensation, and, to top it off, it doesn't hurt that he throws from the same side that the top-of-the-rotation pitcher who just left (Eduardo Rodriguez) did.
Chris Sale. Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Rich Hill. Rodon. With Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and, potentially, Michael Wacha doing their thing with multi-inning roles out of the bullpen. That could work.