With the addition of Dmitry Orlov via trade, the Bruins now have seven defensemen who can and probably should be playing every night.
The six who had been playing every game for nearly three months straight -- Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, Matt Grzelcyk, Brandon Carlo, Derek Forbort and Connor Clifton -- have done their jobs well. None of them deserve to sit.
And yet, Orlov was not brought in to be a seventh defenseman who sits in the press box most nights. This is a player who played over 24 minutes per game during the Capitals’ Stanley Cup run in 2018, and who was still playing an impact two-way game in top-pairing minutes for Washington this season.
In his Bruins debut on Saturday, Orlov played 20:04, behind only Charlie McAvoy (22:14) in blue-line ice time and right in line with Hampus Lindholm (20:01). It would not be surprising if that kind of breakdown becomes the norm.
Barring the rare occasion when the Bruins dress seven D, someone must sit. So, who should it be? And perhaps more importantly, who will it be come playoffs?
On Saturday, it was Connor Clifton. That was not an easy decision for coach Jim Montgomery to make. Clifton had played every game this season prior to Saturday, and is having the best season of his career. He has been very good in his third-pairing role, and showed earlier this season when McAvoy was out that he can even handle a bigger role when called upon. He also helps set the tone physically with his team-high 159 hits.
“Yes, he was [disappointed],” Montgomery said of Clifton. “I mean, he’s been a great player for us all year. It’s hard to scratch a guy that’s done so well for you. And he’s played every game, too. That was hard to deliver that message.”
Clifton will not continue to sit. While the Bruins have kept Jakub Zboril on ice for all but two games over the last three months, they don’t have any intention of doing that with any of their seven should-be-regulars.
“The way we look at it right now, there’s gonna be a rotation going on among a few defensemen,” Montgomery said. “I don’t see McAvoy and Lindholm being part of that equation. We have to keep everybody game-ready and in game shape, so we can’t have someone sit. We made this trade on purpose, and that’s the luxury we have. My job is to manage it well.”
That leaves Grzelcyk, Carlo and Forbort as potentially part of said rotation along with Clifton. Orlov certainly could be as well, but Montgomery is probably going to want to try him in a few different spots to figure out where he ultimately fits best, and the only way to do that is to keep playing him.
Grzelcyk seems to be the name that comes up most among fans and media in this conversation, especially looking ahead to the playoffs. We know why: He has gotten hurt in or before the playoffs more than once, and he has not been able to play as effectively in the postseason as he does in the regular season.
Grzelcyk has been a plus player at 5-on-5 in every regular season he’s played, with a career goals-for percentage of 64.0%. But he has been a minus in every postseason, with a career goals-for percentage of 36.9%.
I could sit here and tell you about sample sizes and bad luck and the fact that Grzelcyk has actually been over 50% in expected goals in each of the last four postseasons -- and there’s some validity to all of that -- but a lot of Bruins don’t want to hear it. They’re not going to believe in Grzelcyk as a playoff performer until they actually see it.
Montgomery, for what it’s worth, isn’t holding Grzelcyk’s playoff past against him, at least not publicly. He likes what he’s seeing from Grzelcyk, and why wouldn’t he? Grzelcyk is a plus-30 at 5-on-5 this season, the best mark among all NHL defensemen. Montgomery believes Grzelcyk has made adjustments that could spare him from another postseason beating.
“I understand what has happened in the past. I wasn’t here for that. I look at how his game has progressed,” Montgomery said of Grzelcyk on Thursday. “I find his gaps and his ability to make reads and shut plays down before they even get into forecheck situations has drastically improved. So I don’t think those situations arise as much. I don’t think they will arise as much. It is a more forechecking game in the playoffs. I and we understand that, but I like the way he’s been really moving pucks on first touch, which I think allows him to not take those hits that happen on the forecheck a lot in the playoffs.”
Carlo is another player who frequently faces postseason questions. He got injured just before the playoffs began in both 2017 and 2018. He was great during the Bruins’ run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2019, but fans’ most recent memories haven’t been as positive. Carlo got injured in the second round against the Islanders in 2021, and the Bruins weren’t the same the rest of the series without him. Last spring, Carlo struggled against the Hurricanes, with the Bruins getting outscored 6-0 during his 5-on-5 shifts.
This season, though, Carlo is once again playing like the shutdown second-pairing defender the Bruins want and expect him to be. Despite getting the most defensive-zone starts of any B’s blue-liner, Carlo leads the group in shots against, scoring chances against and expected goals against per 60 minutes. He is second only to Grzelcyk in goals against per 60. He is also tied with Forbort for the team lead in shorthanded time on ice per game.
Speaking of Forbort, he has the weakest 5-on-5 numbers of the group, ranking last among the six in Corsi-for percentage (45.4%), expected goals-for percentage (46.7%) and actual goals-for percentage (57.7%). So sit Forbort then, right? OK… except the Bruins’ penalty kill is 89.5% in the 47 games Forbort has played this season and was just 76.1% when he missed 11 games back in November.
Like we said, no one deserves to sit right now, which is why it’s going to be a rotation. If everyone is healthy come April, deciding who sits then will be a great problem to have. Of course, a big reason Sweeney made this trade in the first place was the fact that keeping six defensemen healthy for four rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs is almost impossible, something the Bruins are acutely aware of.
“I think as a group we need to understand that we generally haven’t started the playoffs with the same six guys and finished it that way,” Sweeney said Thursday night. “So we have to be prepared and that’s what we tried to do.”
If and when there’s an injury -- and there almost certainly will be at some point -- the debate around who should sit becomes moot. Until then, Montgomery, as he put it, will have to try to “manage it well.”
All stats via Natural Stat Trick or Evolving-Hockey.