Three New England Patriots have won the Associated Press’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Award since its inception in 1957, all in the heart of the running back era. They were John Stephens in 1988, Leonard Russell in 1991 and Curtis Martin in 1995.
Get ready to add Mac Jones to that list in 2021.
Let’s be clear, this doesn’t mean I think Jones is a better quarterback than Trevor Lawrence. This doesn’t mean I think he’s going to win more Super Bowls or have a better career than Justin Fields. It just means Mac has a much better shot at winning a piece of metal.
In making this argument, there are a few key aspects to consider:
In the modern NFL, it is unlikely OROY goes to a non-QB if a QB is a legitimate contender.
A playoff berth all but guarantees that team’s quarterback OROY.
As much as I hate to say it, traditional box score stats and wins heavily correlate to winning OROY.
Tie goes to the sexier position - the QB.
Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Kyler Murray, and Justin Herbert are the more modern recipients of the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Ryan, Newton, and Griffin III’s wins were aided by their teams making the playoffs. Bradford’s Rams fell a game short of the postseason, but there were no other serious contenders for the award that season.
Murray’s biggest challenger was Raiders running back Josh Jacobs, but Jacobs’ numbers didn’t blow Murray’s away to the point where Jacobs should have been the clear-cut winner.
Justin Herbert’s situation is interesting because the football world is in near-universal agreement that Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson should have been the OROY last season. Herbert’s 4336 yards and 31 touchdowns to Jefferson’s 1400 yards and seven touchdowns may have been comparable in the minds of voters, but is another instance of a tie going to the quarterback when neither team qualified for the postseason.
Dak Prescott was the only quarterback from 2013 to 2018 who was considered a major OROY candidate after the regular season ended. Regardless of the Cowboys’ 13-3 record and Prescott’s 23:4 touchdown to interception ratio, Ezekiel Elliott’s 1631 rushing yards and 16 total touchdowns blew Prescott’s raw numbers away. Elliott’s play also created the perception that Prescott numbers and the Cowboys’ 13-3 record were caused by Elliott’s monster production, a phenomenon that is unlikely to repeat.
In each of those other seasons from 2103 to 2018, no quarterback’s numbers compare to the non-quarterback counterpart who ultimately won OROY.
That brings us to this year’s draft, and the current odds to win AP OROY:
Tied with Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts at fifth place and +1000 is Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, who faces two major hurdles to winning OROY:
Winning the Patriots’ starting QB job in the first place.
Beating every single other rookie for the award (duh).
There is a Cam Newton-sized elephant blocking Mac Jones’ path to the Patriots’ start QB job. Charisma alone may carry Cam to the Week 1 start, but no one thinks he’s going to hold onto that job for the entire season. The question now becomes: does Mac Jones become the starter with enough time to accumulate the numbers necessary to win the award? This is a tough question since the NFL schedule has yet to be released, but logic says that Bill Belichick is not the type of coach who learns the wrong lessons from barely winning games.
Let’s say the Patriots and their stacked roster beat the Bengals 20-17 with Cam Newton taking aim at the earth’s core with most of his passes. Maybe Belichick sticks with Cam in 2020 when Jarrett Stidham didn’t do anything to earn a start on a bad team, but in 2021 when the team has actual deep-playoff aspirations with a retooled roster one would think Belichick would pull the plug sooner than later, maybe even before the season.
If you can’t get past that notion, then thanks for the click. Tune in to Gresh & Keefe weekdays 10-2 on WEEI, WEEI.com and the Audacy app.
As for the 2021 rookie class, a non-QB isn’t winning OROY unless they produce like Zeke Elliott did in 2016 and zero of the five first-round quarterbacks have big seasons or make the playoffs.
Najee Harris doesn’t have an offensive line. Devonta Smith may not have a quarterback. Jaylen Waddle may not have a quarterback. The guy throwing the ball to Ja’Marr Chase is set to get killed again after his team neglected the offensive line in free agency and spent but a second round pick on a tackle. Kyle Pitts is a contender, but as a rookie in an offense with many mouths to feed it’s unlikely Pitts has numbers that’ll blow minds to the point of outweighing a quarterback putting big numbers and making the playoffs.
Now for the quarterbacks.
Trevor Lawrence’s situation is interesting because we don’t yet know what Urban Meyer’s offensive philosophy will be at the NFL level. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell showed signs of being a progressive play caller with the Lions, but Super Bowl 49 hero Matt Patricia instilled a Jurassic 50/50ish run-pass split on Detroit’s offense. Meyer’s questionable drafting of Clemson running back Travis Etienne in the first round when Jacksonville already had James Robinson on the roster lends credence to the idea that Meyer will fit more under the Matt Patricia-Mike Zimmer-Pete Carroll umbrella of a head coach who instills inefficient tendencies on an offense than the Sean Payton-Bill Belichick-Andy Reid umbrella of smart playcalling. This philosophy takes numbers away from Lawrence.
The rest of the Jaguars roster also isn’t looking great--they have little depth from #3 down on the WR depth chart, no legitimate starting tight end, and one of the more enigmatic cast of names on a defense that finished last season 31st in DVOA. I.e., it’s unlikely the Jaguars make the playoffs.
Zach Wilson should have better odds than Lawrence to win OROY. Jets GM Joe Douglas has quietly built a decent offensive roster that was covered up by the charlatan calling the plays the last two seasons. Combine adding the draft's top guard and stealing Ole Miss receiver Elijah Moore in the second round, the Jets offense is one to keep an eye on. New OC Mike LaFleur, brother of Matt, is expected to bring the same Shanahan philosophies that have resulted in monster numbers for quarterbacks who shouldn’t have any business putting up monster numbers. The question for the Jets lies on the defense, where they have a few key players but virtually nothing at CB, EDGE behind Shaq Lawson, and at linebacker aside from CJ Mosley fresh off of COVID sabbatical. The team isn’t very likely to make the postseason.
Every day Jimmy Garoppolo remains on the 49ers roster it becomes likelier and likelier that the 49ers start him over Trey Lance this season. The 49ers have one of the three most complete rosters in the league. Barring injury, it’s unlikely Lance sees the field with the 49ers humming their way to double digit wins.
Fields is in a similar situation to Jones as far as there being a starter in front of him, but the Bears have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, just released their saving grace in tackle Charles Leno, and ousted everyone on their defense not named Khalil Mack or Eddie Jackson. Fields may see the field before Jones, but the Bears aren’t good enough to make the playoffs this season.
And we turn our lonely eyes to the cookie monster himself, Mac. Jones is in a similar situation to Trey Lance, except Jones will actually be on the field. The Patriots’ offseason and draft resulted in them having at least one of the ten best rosters in the league, and none of the other first round quarterbacks who will be on the field are expected to have a defense and offensive line as good as those of the Patriots. Jones could throw for 4000 yards with 3500 of them being yards after the catch and with an average intended air yards of two and with his accuracy and decision making, the Patriots will easily make the postseason.
There are some milestones to hit this offseason before I’d be comfortable recommending you bet the rainy day fund on Mac Jones winning OROY, but a sprinkle now while the payout is high and maybe something more substantial as the regular season approaches is a bet worth making.
@AndersenJA