Mac Jones’ stock isn’t exactly through the roof after a disappointing second NFL season, though we can all agree the Patriots’ offensive dysfunction wasn’t all his fault.
Still, any designs New England might have had on anointing him its quarterback of the future with a hefty contract extension as soon as he was eligible (following his third season) might be on hold. Unlike Patrick Mahomes, who got his bag after Year 3, and Joe Burrow, who’s likely about to get one, Jones is in a wait-and-see mode heading into his third year and might have his monetary aspirations riding on the teachings of Bill O’Brien (and a few more offensive weapons).
But that doesn’t mean the Patriots aren’t considering the money question with Jones as we speak, according to ex-NFL general manager Thomas Dimitroff.
The former Falcons executive sat down with NBC Sports Boston’s Tom Curran at the Super Bowl this week to give a little insight into how front offices deal with the prospect of paying quarterbacks big money.
"We talk about it every single day in NFL offices, whether you have (a No. 1 quarterback) or whether you don't, or whether you're thinking about trying to get a deuce behind your No. 1," Dimitroff said. "We're always talking quarterback; it's just the way it is.
"As a former executive looking at this, I would say, you've got to first get (Jones) back in line and feel comfortable that he's going to be able to recover, have resiliency and continue to mature. I want to see consistency, and I need to see the trajectory this way (going up), not this (going up and down). … That's a big thing in my mind: consistency."
After coming into Year 2 with high hopes, Jones and the Patriots offense regressed badly under the coaching of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, ranking bottom-10 in yards and points per game and seeing their young quarterback look frustrated and beleaguered too often following an All-Rookie Team campaign in 2021.
Year 3, therefore, is likely a reset year for Jones and New England – get back on track with O’Brien and improved offensive personnel, and reassess when the season is done.
But what happens if Jones takes enough of a step forward that the Patriots feel the way they did coming out of 2021 – with Robert Kraft saying he was “a big fan of” Jones and someone with the team telling me at the NFL Combine that the team had “our guy?”
It feels more likely that New England might simply allow Jones to keep playing out his rookie contract and maybe even move to pick up his fifth-year option to let him potentially stay on the same timeline as Bill Belichick, who should break Don Shula’s wins record in three years or fewer. (Interestingly, the fifth-year options for 2020 draft picks like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, who each have a Pro Bowl to their name like Jones, are projected by Over The Cap to be about $30 million.)
However, should New England decide Jones is the guy it wants to build around, there’s an argument for striking sooner rather than later on a second contract.
Why?
For one thing, the salary cap continues to balloon. If this year’s salary cap projections from Over the Cap are as accurate as they were this year (to within $200,000), the NFL’s cap looks like it could run to almost $256 million in 2024.
Signing Jones to a (purely hypothetical) extension of $35-37 million sounds absolutely nuts, but it would be essentially a drop in the bucket under that salary cap – a mere seven or eight percent of the overall cap. Locking up the quarterback on that kind of deal leaves plenty of room to add talent around him, though you could also argue a rookie quarterback contract would be even more valuable in that scenario.
Jones is almost certainly never going to break the quarterback market the way Mahomes, Burrow or Josh Allen can. He’s just not on their level. That said, the price of the brick goes up the longer you wait.
The Patriots would be wise to at least consider it if they’re pleased with Jones’ progress in 2023. Otherwise, they can plan to basically start fresh with a new general manager, coach and quarterback whenever Belichick’s time is up.