Plenty of quarterbacks throughout history have been handed the keys to the car week one.
Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t.
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There isn’t a formula, template, magic elixir or even a “Franchise Quarterbacking For Dummies” book available.
It’s about the right time, place, situation and system.
Even that’s subjective and something only hindsight can provide the answers to at times.
The Texans last month drafted C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick, satisfying a starving and deprived fan base after three very long, dysfunctional and disappointing seasons.
Do they need to start him week one of the 2023 season?
It’s not as easy a question to answer as you might think.
Earlier this week, owner Cal McNair said it was going to come down to Stroud and what he proves to the coaches between now and the start of the season.
“I think that’s up to him and how he plays and the coaches, how they see him,” McNair said. "He’ll earn his spot, wherever that is. And he’ll feel like he’s earned it, and the team will feel like he’s earned wherever he winds up."
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Before diving any further into the Texans' situation, it’s important to understand what history tells us about the coveted “franchise quarterback” that teams try to identify and gamble on in the first round of a draft.
First-round rookie quarterbacks who start week one are not as commonplace as one might imagine.
Since the first common draft in 1967, there have been 128 quarterbacks selected in the first round. Only 37 of them started week one for their respective teams.
That’s less than 30% of the sample size.
In the last six drafts, 21 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round. Only six were named week one starters.
In fact, the three quarterbacks that did earn week one starts for the 2021 season (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones) is anomalous in recent history.
Last season with only one quarterback being taken in the first round (Kenny Pickett, No. 20, Pittsburgh Steelers), no quarterback that was drafted started week one for the first time since the 2007 season.
That year, JaMarcus Russell was the No. 1 overall pick by the Oakland Raiders and Brady Quinn went to the Cleveland Browns at No. 22 overall.
Three more quarterbacks were drafted in the second round of the 2007 draft, including former Houston Cougars signal caller Kevin Kolb (Eagles), John Beck (Dolphins) and Drew Stanton (Lions).
It’s also important to note that while teams have decided not to hand the reins over to a rookie quarterback week one the majority of the time, more than 80% of the time they ended up starting games during their rookie campaigns.
Long gone are the days of the Jim Kelly’s and Aaron Rodgers of the world, sitting three years before stepping foot on the field for their first NFL start.
As great of a state of turmoil the Texans have been in organizationally in recent years, in which negligence and front office ineptitude finally cost them in the pocketbook with a lack of ticket sales, interest and merchandising to boot, they’ve turned the worm.
They’ve seemingly got their act together.
Hiring one of the most highly sought after head coach candidate on the market this off-season in DeMeco Ryans, to some really nice additions in free agency, to general manager Nick Caserio executing one of the most exciting drafts in franchise history, has been a helluva start and a necessary one.
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The truth is, as exciting as it is to be a Texans fan right now, keep in mind that there is maybe as much unknown about all of the new additions as there is about the known of the incumbents.
Sure, it has to be better than the previous two regimes.
It will be. They’re actually trying now.
But, how will they handle the delicate situation that is developing a rookie quarterback?
“What a player can do, ultimately, it’s going to be up to their performance,” Caserio said. "We’ll do what we feel is in the best interest of the team. Coach DeMeco will make the decision, and the coaching staff will make the decisions that we feel are best for the team. We’ll put the best players out there that are ready to play and prepared to take advantage of the opportunity."
None of this is to say that the Texans should sit Stroud behind Davis Mills or Case Keenum week one. Rather, it’s a look back at the the past and understanding what, if anything, it can tell us about the present and the future.
One thing that stands out under the DeMeco Ryans era of Texans football already is the level of patience they are prepared to have with the players on the current roster, particularly the top two rookies in Stroud and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr.
After a long three years of dysfunction and disappointment, how patient are you willing to be?
Shaun Bijani has spent the last 16 years covering the Houston sports scene for SportsRadio 610. Follow him on Twitter @ShaunBijani.
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