(SportsRadio 610) - The Texans’ formula for winning a ninth consecutive game over the Jaguars is no secret. We’ve seen enough of them through four games to know what they do well and what causes them to struggle and be unable to win in the fourth quarter.
Consistency on both sides of the ball has been an issue during the 0-3-1 start. Sunday’s 34-24 loss to the Chargers was a perfect example.
The Texans scored in the fourth quarter for the first time this season. They scored a touchdown and a field goal to pull within 27-24. Then they needed the defense to force a punt to give the offense another chance, but the Chargers stuffed it down their throats with a 12-play, 84-yard, victory-clinching drive.
A week later, the Texans will try to extend their winning streak against the Jaguars and beat them for the 15th time in 17 games. Under new coach Doug Pederson, the Jaguars are 2-2 and tied with Tennessee for first place in the AFC South.
The Jaguars are favored by 6 ½ points. The Texans beat them twice last season when they were underdogs.
Let’s analyze what the Texans need to do to avoid losing to Jacksonville for the first time since 2017. We’ll start with the offense.
Quarterback Davis Mills hasn’t been as productive as the last five games of his rookie season. He threw two touchdown passes in the loss to the Chargers, but he contributed to the Texans being in an 0-7 hole by throwing an interception on the first series of the game. The Chargers had to go 25 yards for their first touchdown.
Mills has five touchdown passes and four interceptions. He’s been sacked 11, including some that were critical to failed drives at the worst possible times. In the last six games of his rookie season, Mills had nine touchdowns, two interceptions and 11 sacks.
In fairness to Mills, he’s been the victim of eight dropped passes and several penalties that wiped out completions inside the opponent’s 30-yard line that ended with punts.
Mills’ performance under first-year play-caller Pep Hamilton is hard to figure out. He’s got a better running game with Dameon Pierce, who’s improved his rushing total in each of his four games, but the passing game hasn’t been as efficient or consistent as it was late last season when Mills showed so much promise.
Hamilton knows what it takes to make Mills and the offense more consistent.
“Just the mentality, understanding every play is the most important play in the game,” Hamilton said this week. “When you have a variance of experience, you have some players that understand how tough it is to focus of 65 (to) 70 plays a game and be at your best on any given play.
“Then you have young players who, at times, just that process of processing the information, getting (to) the line of scrimmage and troubleshooting the different looks we see becomes more a burden and (a) challenge. It’s really mitigating the times where you put players in the position to where they’re trying to adapt to something they’re somewhat unfamiliar with.”
One glaring deficiency the offense has is a back who can relieve Pierce and get five or six carries and average at least 4 yards as Pierce does. Rex Burkhead is a more effective receiver than runner, and Hamilton finally seems to realize it.
Something Hamilton has to start doing is to utilize Pierce in pressure situations like fourth-and-1 or on a late series in which the Texans have to score.
So many times this season, the offensive line has allowed a sack or committed a penalty when the offense could least afford it. With three new starters playing for first-year coach George Warhop, they’ll have growing pains, but mistakes at crucial times have derailed drives. It’s time the line started showing the consistent production the offense desperately needs.
Hamilton and Mills have to make a strong effort to get the ball more to second-year receiver Nico Collins. He has 11 catches for 207 yards. He showed on the 58-yard reception against the Chargers what he’s capable of doing. His 18.8-yard average per catch is the Texans’ best by far, and Hamilton must take advantage of his down-field ability.
On the other side of the ball, coach Lovie Smith’s defense has to play better. The defense played its worst game against the Chargers.
“Defensively, I don’t think there’s a mystery,” linebackers coach Miles Smith said. “I think all aspects of our defense need to get better. We’re not playing good enough football.
“It’s been pretty widespread, but it always starts with the linebackers. If teams are running for that many yards, it has to go on the linebackers’ shoulders. Overall, we have to play more disciplined football. That’s what matters in our defense -- all 11 guys doing exactly what they’re supposed to do. We need to do better with the takeaways, as well.”
The front seven has to play the run the way it did against the Chargers, who generated only 81 yards and a 3-yard average. Containing James Robinson, the Jaguars’ leading rusher, is essential if the Texans are going to play the run well in back-to-back games. He has 259 yards (4.4 average) and three touchdowns.
The defense doesn’t want to let the Jaguars continue to be fast starters. Not only have they outscored opponents 24-7 in the first quarter, but they have a 31-3 advantage in the third quarter. They have a 105-67 scoring advantage.
The Texans have been notorious slow starters. They went three and out on their opening drive of the first three games before Mills’ interception made it four consecutive games without a first down, must less a point, on their first possession.
The Texans’ four-man front has to get pressure on second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has eight touchdowns, two interceptions and a 99.9 rating. He’s been sacked six times. He lost four fumbles in Sunday’s loss at Philadelphia.
Smith wants to get pressure with his front four, but too often, he had to blitz against the Chargers, who did an outstanding job of shutting down the pass rush. Without pressure from linemen like Jerry Hughes, Jonathan Greenard and Rasheem Green, who have combined for eight of the team’s 11 sacks, the secondary will be vulnerable.
Okay, enough with the negative. Let’s pay tribute to Frank Ross’ special teams that have been exceptional.
Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn is on a pace for 132 points. He’s missed one field goal. He’s connected on 63 in a row from inside the 40 dating back to 2017. His kickoffs have been tremendous. Only two of his kickoffs have been returned for a 17.1-yard average.
Punter Cam Johnston is also off to a terrific start with a 49.2-yard gross and a 43.3 net. Eleven of his 20 punts have been inside the 20. He has no touchbacks. Opponents average 9.1 yards on returns.
Jon Weeks, the senior member of the team in his 13th season, has, as usual, made every snap perfect.
Desmond King III averages 11.5 yards on punt returns and Tremon Smith 23 yards on kickoff returns.
Safety M.J. Stewart has been a demon on special teams. He leads with eight tackles. He’s also forced a fumble on kickoff coverage and executed a successful fake punt.
If the offense and defense played as well as the special teams, the Texans might be undefeated going into the Jacksonville game.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on Sports Radio 610 and Monday and Thursday on Texans Radio. He does three weekly Houtopia Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com. He also can be read four times a week on GallerySports.com.