The NBA second half is about to get underway, and the title picture is not as clear as prior years, providing some betting value in the futures market.
The abridged offseason, along with unique circumstances in the 2020-2021 season, have made for some heightened volatility and sports bettors can pounce on some mispriced lines.
Despite losing Anthony Davis for an extended period of time and a slip in play, the Lakers are still the title favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nets are right on their heels at +300 to win it all.
The Clippers, Bucks, and Jazz also lurk with single digit in the future market, but I’m perplexed by the Philadelphia 76ers odds.
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Philadelphia 76ers +1200
The Nets are the favorites to come out of the East, but I’m not sure why the Bucks are getting more respect in the futures market than the Sixers. Philadelphia has a ton of value at anything above +1000.
Joel Embiid has taken his game to another level. Now the betting favorite to win MVP at nearly all major sportsbooks -- +200 at DK, for example -- Embiid has been the most dominant force in the league.
He is shooting a career best 41% from three on a healthy three attempts per game, but also getting to the line a career high 11 times per game. Embiid has become one of the most unstoppable forces in basketball and has the Sixers a half-game in front of the Nets for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.
Embiid and fellow All Star Ben Simmons may not be the best fit on offense together, but Simmons’ ability to lock up any player 1-to-5 on the floor is a known commodity.
The duo has been a terror on the defensive end, towards the top of the league in all individual defensive metrics, while the Sixers bolster the sixth best defense, per Cleaning the Glass.
In a playoff setting, Philadelphia matches up favorably with Milwaukee, with Simmons' ability to stick on whoever is necessary between Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, or Jrue Holiday. If Milwaukee opts small with Giannis at the five, Embiid can hang on the floor by daring Giannis to beat Philly from deep. I think Embiid would be the best player on the floor in this series.
Against the Nets, Embiid can be the antidote to the Brooklyn barrage on offense. While the Nets signed Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan remains the only true big on the roster.
The Nets may have no choice but to let Embiid dominate on offense and hope to outscore Philly with their own stars.
If you’ve noticed, I’ve only spoken about Embiid and Simmons. That’s part of the issue with the Sixers, who have two true superstars, but are still shallow elsewhere. There have been rumors linking Philadelphia to Kyle Lowry, who would give the Sixers the ball handler it desperately needs to help mitigate Simmons inability to shoot from the perimeter while not compromising their defense.
Whether it’s Lowry or someone else, Philly can use another ball handler to help build their playoff roster. Expect to see the Sixers in trade rumors ahead of the deadline on March 25th.
Overall, this price is too high on Philly, who is the biggest threat to taking down Brooklyn in the East and has the best player in the league this season in Embiid.