This week, we shift our sights onto Austin Country Club for the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play event. The course measures approximately 7,100 yards, for a par 71. When it comes to the gambling odds, you can bet this event in a couple of different ways, but Jon Rahm is the favorite in finishing position odds at +1200. Kevin Kisner is the defending champion (2019).
About the gambling part. Can’t get enough March Madness? Well, you are in luck. Think of this event as golf’s version with 64 players broken down into 16 different four player groupings. After each group’s round robin is over, the group winner then advances to a single-elimination tournament. This week is match play format, which is a ton of fun to watch. The March Madness feel is why it is one of my favorite events of the year.
Betting on golf always seems to come down to the wire on Sundays, which is why I’ve become hooked. So let’s dig in and see if we can pick some winners.
As for my betting picks, nothing groundbreaking here, but aside from digging into the data at RickRunGood.com database, I try to look for guys that have had past success at the particular course, value, and players that are trending in the right direction coming into the event.
Viewing Details
2021 WGC Dell Technologies Match
Dates: March 24-28
Course: Austin Country Club, Austin, Texas
Watch: GOLF/ NBC
Best Bets
There is a lot of strategy involved this week. I’m going with a mix of one heavy hitter and a few longshots. This event is absolutely wild to watch and bet on, so buckle up for some bracket busters and Cinderellas.
Picks to finish in top position
Bryson DeChambeau +1500
He will be longer on drives than pretty much every single opponent he faces this weekend, which will give him a leg up on subsequent shots. Because of that, he will be able to get intel from others on most of the holes, which will help him all tournament long. That can also mentally be intimidating if you are in his group.
DeChambeau is also one of those guys that gets up for events like this.
On paper, Dechambeau’s path looks fairly easy, second only to Dustin Johnson’s.
Longshots
When it comes to longshots, I looked for guys who were 25-1 or longer for this section. My strategy with longshots in general: if any of them are in contention, you will get an opportunity to reassess your positions and live bet to hedge a little with some of the other contenders.
Patrick Cantlay +2600
Cantlay isn’t really a true darkhorse, but because of the format, we are getting 26-1 odds on one of the best golfers in the world. He's an excellent ball striker and has the goods to compete with anyone on any course.
I like his path, starting with his first grouping. As long as he can get out of the gate hot, he should be in the mix.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +4000 and Corey Conners +5500
I really see the winner of this group making a deep run this weekend. The issue is, both these guys have to go up against Jordan Spieth right off the bat. Hence, their long odds.
Fitz is playing some of the best golf of his life and is a solid putter. Conners is playing as good as anyone right now, with a third at the API, and a seventh at the PLAYERS. His putting, approach and ball-striking Strokes Gained metrics are all great.
Lanto Griffin +12500
For a dog this big, multiple crazy things needs to happen. But, that's why we call it March Madness, right?
He’ll need to heat up and catch some breaks along the way, but I like his first grouping. Rory McIlroy is shaky right now. If Griffin can make it out alive, his path to the Elite 8 is not that bad.
He’s a good putter and his approach game has been solid. At these odds, he is definitely worth the sprinkle. Best case scenario, he gets out of his first group and starts making a run, which should give you an opportunity to hedge a little.
Group Bet
Jason Kokrak to win Group 12 (+280)
Kokrak is running hot right now, coming in off of three T10 finishes. It’s a tough group on paper, but at this number, I really like this bet for a guy playing well.
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook