The Detroit Lions enter their Week 10 matchup against the Steelers as the only winless team in football. At 0-8, they've scored the fourth fewest points and have allowed the second most. The last time they took the field was their worst effort of the season, getting absolutely shellacked by the not-that-great Eagles by the score of 44-6. Things, needless to say, aren't great.
And yet, according to EdjSports' rankings, Lions head coach Dan Campbell has not been the worst coach in the NFL. He's actually not even in the bottom five, coming in at No. 25, above a few names you may have heard of: Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin, to name a couple. Shocked? I don't blame you.
We'll get into the way in which these rankings are made and the metrics behind them, as well as some notable takeaways. First, here's the full list at the halfway-ish point of the 17-game season:
1. Brandon Staley, Chargers
2. Mike McCarthy, Cowboys
3. Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals
4. Sean Payton, Saints
5. Frank Reich, Colts
6. John Harbaugh, Ravens
7. Matt LaFleur, Packers
8. Sean McDermott, Bills
9. Jon Gruden/Rich Bisaccia, Raiders
10. Sean McVay, Rams
11. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers
12. Nick Sirianni, Eagles
13. Bruce Arians, Buccaneers
14. Kevin Stefanski, Browns
15. Mike Vrabel, Titans
16. Ron Rivera, Washington
17. Urban Meyer, Jaguars
18. Zac Taylor, Bengals
19. Mike Zimmer, Vikings
20. Matt Nagy, Bears
21. Vic Fangio, Broncos
22. Brian Flores, Dolphins
23. Andy Reid, Chiefs
24. Pete Carroll, Seahawks
25. Dan Campbell, Lions
26. Bill Belichick, Patriots
27. Matt Rhule, Panthers
28. Mike Tomlin, Steelers
29. Arthur Smith, Falcons
30. David Culley, Texans
31. Joe Judge, Giants
32. Robert Saleh, Jets
The rankings have been formed by getting a weighted average of two different metrics: Offensive Play Calling Index Ranking and EPI Ranking. Each is explained in full detail on the website, for those who are more curious, but essentially they're wildly thorough and complex algorithms that normalize and neutralize each coach to get evaluated on the same scale. It seems as though the batch of rankings above, however, stressed fourth-down decision making more heavily than overall play calling. The initial computer model was created by Indiana University astrophysicist Chuck Bower and world backgammon champion Frank Frigo, so I'm going to take their word for it and trust that these analytics are powerful indications of a coach's success on the football field.
It makes sense, then, that several coaches near the top of these rankings at the halfway point in the season have led their teams to such success. Staley has been lauded for his gutsy fourth-down play calling week in and week out, pushing his team to a 5-3 record and a first-place seed in the AFC West. He ranks first in the Offensive Play Calling Index Ranking while, surprisingly, the one and only Bill Belichick ranks last. Some other notes:
— For all the flak Mike McCarthy has received, especially after playing Dak Prescott at a seemingly meaningless juncture of a blowout loss against the Broncos, he ranks very highly on the list. Decisions like that one probably aren't accounted for in the formulas, so he could get docked a few points here for his "horrendous" decision that very well could have resulted in disaster.
— Rich Bisaccia has more than held his own after taking over for Jon Gruden, picking up wins over the Broncos and the Eagles before a rough loss to the Giants last week. Still, stepping into such a tumultuous situation, which has since become even more horrible after the Henry Ruggs accident, is really difficult, and he deserves a lot of credit.
— I'm guessing that flower-based speeches don't play into the rankings, as Nick Sirianni landed in the top 12 at the halfway point. This is pretty surprising to me, honestly, as he has often been the primary point of blame when things go wrong for the Birds. Audacy's own Eliot Shorr-Parks seemed to be thinking along the same lines as EdjSports, using his own (less complicated) grading system.
— Last year's Coach of the Year Award winner, Kevin Stefanski, is hovering around the middle of the list, and it's not too hard to see why. It's been a season full of ups and downs in Cleveland, though perhaps the decision to move on from Odell Beckham will improve team chemistry and lead to a stronger second half.
— Urban Meyer, Mike Zimmer and Matt Nagy don't rank all that badly for three guys who could be seen as reasonable hot seat candidates. Still, a lot of the issues in those situations have to do with more than play calling, which wouldn't be taken into account by the model.
— Andy Reid, Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin are probably used to seeing their names a lot higher on rankings like these, but that's not the case this time. Reid is someone whose ranking I was especially interested to see, as there's plenty of blame to go around in Kansas City for their very concerning first half.
— Sorry, New York fans.
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