Since 1978, when the NFL switched to a 16-game schedule, there have been 159 NFL teams with a point differential of -100 or worse after 14 weeks of the season. If you're not a statistics person, such a point differential means that the team must have allowed at least 100 points more than the amount that they've scored. And in the simplest terms, these are the teams who are, well, pretty bad.
And out of all 159 of those less-than-stellar performers at the Week 14 mark, only three of them have a 6-7 record despite the horrid point differential. The large majority are in the 3-10 or 4-9 range, but a few teams — due to luck, or schedule, or whatever bizarre factors — have somehow managed to stay afloat and hover around that .500 range.
One of those teams was the 2013 Jets, led by Rex Ryan and Geno Smith, who finished up with an 8-8 record despite a -97 point differential and an expected record of 5-11 based on their points for and points against. Another was the 2019 Raiders, who finished at 7-9 despite a -106 point differential and, like the Jets, an expected 5-11 record.
And that brings us to the third and final team with this odd mix of solid win-loss production and awful point differential: the 2021 Atlanta Falcons. Stathead shows us the 12 teams that posted at least five wins with a -100 or worse point differential through 14 weeks, and you'll see that the Falcons fit in atop the list as the rare 6-7 squad. Not shown are the 1978 Baltimore Colts, whose stark point differential of -153 is the lowest of the five-win teams at this point in the year.
| Poin | Poin | Poin | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Tm | Year | G | W ▼ |
L | W-L% | PF | PA | PD |
| 1 | ATL | 2021 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0.462 | 245 | 353 | -108 |
| 2 | OAK | 2019 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0.462 | 258 | 366 | -108 |
| 3 | NYJ | 2013 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0.462 | 226 | 337 | -111 |
| 4 | GNB | 1980 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 0.393 | 225 | 325 | -100 |
| 5 | TAM | 1990 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0.385 | 210 | 311 | -101 |
| 6 | HOU | 1985 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 0.357 | 247 | 350 | -103 |
| 7 | DAL | 2004 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0.385 | 249 | 355 | -106 |
| 8 | HOU | 2003 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0.385 | 211 | 317 | -106 |
| 9 | ARI | 2002 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0.385 | 213 | 333 | -120 |
| 10 | SFO | 2006 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0.385 | 228 | 349 | -121 |
| 11 | KAN | 2011 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0.385 | 173 | 305 | -132 |
Another way of framing this? Of all the 6-7 teams in NFL history through 14 weeks of a season, the Falcons are tied for having the second-worst point differential.
So, what makes them one of these should-be-worse-than-they-are teams? Their expected win-loss record right now, courtesy of Pro Football Reference, is 4-9. Their SRS rating, which is Pro Football Reference's way of ranking each team based on point differential and strength of schedule, is fifth-worst in the NFL, ahead of only the Lions, Jaguars, Jets and Texans. Still, record-wise, they're ahead of those teams and the Panthers, Giants, Bears, Seahawks and tied with the Vikings, Dolphins and Steelers, just to name a few.
Looking at the schedule allows you to make a little more sense of how such a statistical anomaly has been possible. They've beaten opponents like the Giants, Jets, Jaguars and Panthers — all teams that are among the bottom-feeders of the league — in one-score victories. Their wins against slightly better competition, the Dolphins and Saints, have come by a combined four points.
And then there are the losses. A 40-point blowout against the Cowboys. A 26-point trouncing by the Eagles. A 25-0 shutout by the Patriots. That's the type of stuff that adds up — or subtracts, rather — in a point differential, putting the Falcons in this rarely-seen scenario. It's also worth mentioning that Atlanta came into the 2021 season with the third-easiest strength of schedule based on 2020 standings.
Other statistics help to paint them as a team that truly may be one of the worst 6-7 squads we've seen in a while. They rank in the bottom five in stopping opponents both on third down and in the red zone. They've allowed the fifth most points in the league, with an offense that isn't much better (No. 26 of 32 teams in points scored). Opponents average the second-most yards per drive and third-most points per drive against their porous defense. They've sacked the opposing quarterback 16 times all season, worst in football and four fewer than the "runner-up" Detroit Lions, who have 20 team sacks. They're one of seven defenses in the league that has allowed a passer rating of 100 or higher.
And yet here we are, with a 6-7 football team that still has a chance — albeit a small one — of making the playoffs. The New York Times says Atlanta has a 10 percent chance to make the playoffs, a number that will rise to 27 percent if they can beat the 49ers in Week 15. FiveThirtyEight gives them an even higher chance (see tweet below). These figures make it perhaps the most important game of the entire year, seeing as a subsequent Week 16 win over the Lions would bump them up into both a winning record and a realistic shot of making postseason noise. But a loss against San Francisco pretty much guarantees they're out of the race... and that might be the most appropriate result. The opening line sees the Niners as 8.5-point favorites.
But with the wonky season that Atlanta has had, it seems like any outcome is within the realm of possibility. Only time will tell.
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