Grab your piece of the action. Sign up with BetMGM to receive a risk free, first-bet offer all tournament long! Terms and conditions apply.
No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels
The disrespect the Tar Heels had to endure by being a No. 8 seed has fueled them all the way to the Final Four, where they will get one last matchup against Coach K and the big bad Blue Devils. These teams met at the very end of the regular season, where the Tar Heels upset Duke, 94-81, behind a barrage of 3-pointers. The offense is clicking on all cylinders since that game, and they are as dangerous as they come. Sure, they were pretty awful shooting 3s against Saint Peter's, going just 6-for-22 from beyond the arc. The good news is it didn't matter, as the game was essentially a scrimmage after 10 minutes. North Carolina did what Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue failed to do in the tournament, and dispatched a much worse team within minutes.
They had an insane 49 rebounds against the Peacocks to be an incredible +46 in rebounding margin in the tournament. That's an eye-popping number, to say the least, and a lot of that has to do with the dominance on the glass of Armando Bacot. He's been fantastic all year long at gobbling up rebounds, and this tournament has been no different. When you combine how good North Carolina has been on the glass with how well they have shot the 3 in the prior games, it's easy to see why they won this region.
All the pressure in this game is going to be on Duke, who continues to play for their legendary head coach in his last season. They are the No. 2 seed and favorites in the game, while UNC should play loose and unbothered. Duke hasn’t faced an offense in the NCAA Tournament that’s anything like the one that hit 49% from the field in their last matchup.
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils
Duke is playing some inspired basketball right now, presumably because they know any game could be their head coach's last after one of the best career's in NCAA history, so they're going all-in. As mentioned above, they haven't faced a team that has the offensive abilities like North Carolina does, but they have faced three teams with some of the best defenses in the country. Michigan State, Texas Tech and Arkansas all had terrific defensive metrics, and that type of battle-tested experience will really help the Blue Devils against a much weaker Tar Heels defense. Even against those tough defenses, Duke is shooting close to 55% from the field in the tournament, including an incredible display over the final seven minutes against Texas Tech.
Even with the 3s that are falling for North Carolina right now, they don't even come close to the shooting efficiency of the Blue Devils. Against Saint Peter's and UCLA, the UNC offense actually took a step back. They were lights-out against Marquette, but haven't shot it at a 50% clip all tournament.
This is a young team that has now gotten a taste of what real competition is, and also how to face adversity. They know what it's like to lose when you are supposed to win, and they have learned from it. Duke has been one of the most clutch teams in the tournament, and when they have had to step their game up on offense or defense, they have done it. They make their free throws when it counts and play disciplined basketball.
Best Bet
Duke has hit 50% or more of its shots in 18 games, including each of the last four, and in eight of the last 12 games. North Carolina is 0-6 when allowing teams to make 51% or more of their shots, and they’re 10-9 when teams make 44% or more. The Tar Heels are 18-0 when holding teams to shoot under 44%. The Blue Devils have been held under 44% just six times this season. Duke is just the better basketball team, and they have been playing better for the majority of this tournament. They got whipped in the last meeting with North Carolina, but still shot 49% from the field in that game. People seem to forget the Blue Devils hit 58% of their shots in the first meeting in an, 87-67, win.
My Pick: Duke -4
Does the model agree? Subscribe to BetQL to see our model’s best Final Four bets with live sharp data and top trends!
LISTEN on the Audacy App
Sign Up and Follow Audacy Sports
Facebook | Twitter | Instagram