No. 14 Utah (+7) vs No. 18 USC
There is another big game in the Pac-12 this weekend with the no. 14 Utah Utes visiting the no. 18 USC Trojans. Both teams have one loss but still have a shot at the College Football Playoff if they can run the table given the strength of the Pac-12 this year. Plus, both the Utes and Trojans are serious contenders for a place in the Pac-12 Championship Game with the Trojans 4-0 in conference play and Utah 2-1 inside the conference. USC is currently listed as a seven-point favorites at home.
Of course, Utah has won the last three meetings between these teams, including last year’s Pac-12 title game and a 2021 trip to the Coliseum. As far as this season is concerned, the Utes have struggled some on the road, escaping Baylor with a seven-point win and losing 21-7 as four-point underdogs against Oregon State. On the other hand, the Trojans are just 2-5 against the spread and have lost four straight ATS. That includes last week’s humiliating 48-20 loss to Notre Dame. Even with Heisman winner Caleb Williams leading the offense, the Trojans couldn’t move the ball consistently last week behind an offensive line that yielded six sacks against the Fighting Irish. That could be a problem again this week against a Utah defense averaging 3.7 sacks per game, including five in last week’s win over Cal. While this is the smallest spread USC has been asked to cover this year, this doesn’t look like a game the Trojans will be able to win comfortably, even if they can avoid a second straight defeat.
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Chargers vs Chiefs (-5.5)
An AFC West rivalry game helps to highlight the Week 7 NFL schedule as the Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Los Angeles Chargers. Since losing in Week 1, the Chiefs have rattled off five straight wins and are close to pulling away with yet another AFC West crown. On the other side, the Chargers lost in Week 6 while coming off their bye week, dropping them to 2-3. They now have to travel to Arrowhead on a short week and are at risk of falling two games under .500. Not surprisingly, the Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites at home in this game.
Surprisingly, the Chargers have had a lot of success at Arrowhead in recent years. They’ve won three of their last five trips to Kansas City, although those are the only three wins they have against the Chiefs in the last 18 meetings between these teams. To be fair, Kansas City’s two wins over the Chargers last season both came by a mere three points. They are also 10-3 against the spread as underdogs under Brandon Staley. That being said, the Chiefs have covered the spread in four of their five wins this season, including a pair of double-digit spreads. The Kansas City defense has been just as important in making that happen as Patrick Mahomes and the offense, as the Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL this season. The Los Angeles defense isn’t likely to match up well against the Chiefs, yielding at least 24 points in three of five games this year. Even with Justin Herbert having another good year, there is no guarantee the Chargers will be able to put points on the board against a stout Kansas City defense, allowing the Chiefs to win and cover against their longtime rivals.
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