BetQL Daily’s Joe Ostrowski and Ross Tucker were joined by Jeff Sherman, the SuperBook’s Vice President of Risk Management, today to discuss a variety of topics.
Sherman provided terrific nuggets on what the SuperBook is seeing so far when it comes to Super Bowl betting, so here is a recap of their conversation.
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Super Bowl
As of today, Kansas City is leading in the ticket count when it comes to the spread.
“We have 65% on the Chiefs spread and expect casual fans to bet the Chiefs at -3,” Sherman said. “We anticipate more bets to come in this weekend.”
Sherman was asked if he thinks the number will close at Chiefs -3.5?
“No, I think it will stay on three or a variant of 3,” he explained. “There is enough Tampa money weighing it down.”
Sherman pointed out the book is a lot quieter this year due to the pandemic, and that they are expecting more bets to come in on Friday, Saturday and Sunday leading into the game.
When asked which props they have moved or seen some sharp action on, he pointed out the following:
Yardage of Made Field Goals. They opened this prop at 112.5 and it is now up to 119.5. A significant move.
Number of Kickoff Returns in the Game. They opened this at 3.5, under -190, over +170, but it is now at under -130 and over +110.
“We had a strong opinion on this because with these kickers you don't see many returns,” he said. “But, we’ve seen nothing but over money, so we made the adjustment.”
The most popular player prop involves Kansas City’s wide receiver Mecole Hardman. They had to shift the juice on his 2.5 receptions because the over is getting bet hard. They also moved his To Score a Touchdown prop from +400 to +300.
“We have over 400 props and over 1000 ways to wager,” he explained. “Surely we will have some weaknesses when we open, but bettors come in, iron it out and that makes us stronger.”
Sherman was asked if they root for the game to be low scoring and for No results for props, and if new betters should lean to bet that way. He agreed with the fellas.
“They should, but it is tough to bet the under for new bettors because a lot of bettors want overs and like betting the yes on props,” Sherman said. “The numbers are adjusted upwards because public bets come in on the overs and yes early, so that's the way to go and progress from a betting perspective.”
Stafford Trade
The Matthew Stafford trade to the Los Angeles Rams was discussed and Sherman was asked about the change in odds.
“We had the Rams at 20-1 and then moved it to 16-1 after the trade,” he stated. “We had it at 30-1 before that, but we moved it to 20-1 in anticipation of a move once we heard some rumors.”
Being an Oddsmaker
For people that are new to gambling, Sherman was asked to describe his job.
For the most part, he pointed out three tasks: See where the money is going, follow the markets, and keep track of the information out there.
“When it comes to money, we see who's betting it, because that's the most important thing,” he explained. “Respected guys and winning bettors shape the market, so we want to put the book on that side.”
Sherman said this year of all years it is important to keep up with information, especially in the NBA, so they stay up to date with Twitter being one of the ways to monitor the latest news.
Sherman was also asked if there were any restrictions on what he could bet on.
“I can bet on anything, anywhere, other than where I work,” he explained. “I’ve been formulating golf odds for over 20 years in-house, so if I see a number I like in that or the NBA, I’ll go and bet it elsewhere.”
Will he be rooting for his own bets or the SuperBook’s needs on Sunday?
“Generally my bets are in line with what the book needs,” he said. “My bets are insignificant, and we want to put the book in a strong position and root for those scenarios.”
Vikas Chokshi covers the gambling industry for BetQL and his written work can be found on the sports betting vertical of Radio.com. He has an extensive network of oddsmakers and appears frequently on podcasts, radio and television shows. His previous work can be found at The Action Network, VSiN, Gaming Today, Front Office Sports and The Big Lead.
You can find him at @docksquad33 on Twitter.