After a run of loaded slates, college basketball is taking a deep breath as it prepares for the weekend.
A few games were cancelled, but only three ranked teams are in action on Thursday. The game that will get the most eyeballs will surely be the Big Ten matchup between Rutgers and Michigan State, with the Spartans playing for the first time since January 8th.
However, I’m eyeing another national TV game…
Memphis at SMU (-4, 142), 8 PM EST - ESPN2
This game has one of those weird scheduling quirks. The two played in Memphis on Tuesday and face-off again tonight in Dallas.
Tuesday’s matchup closed with Memphis -2.5 and the Tigers were able to secure a 76-72 win. After a COVID-19 outbreak with the team in the beginning of the month, Penny Hardaway’s Tigers have started to turn it around, winning three straight.
I’m going to come back on Southern Methodist in this one. The line feels right at -4, and I would not play it higher than that, but there are some numbers that figure to benefit SMU in the rematch.
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For starters, the Mustangs were able to win the rebounding battle against Memphis, +1 in that department. For the visitors, generating second chances is a big part of their game, they are top three in offensive rebounding rate and the best in the AAC at limiting second chances. If SMU can continue to hang on the glass, that should bode well for them in the rematch.
The Tigers have also benefited from playing some shaky offensive clubs in succession. SMU was the first team Memphis has played inside KenPom's top 50 offensive efficiency metric in over a month, and the results showed, as they were able to crack 70 points. This was the first time the Tigers had allowed over 60 points in five straight games.
Memphis was able to edge the first game out with free throw volume, making 25 trips to the charity stripe against SMU’s six. While that is a crazy disparity, the Tigers only made 12 freebies. Memphis is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country, hitting on 60.9%, 340th in the country. If the amount of attempts comes closer to the middle, SMU should be able to pull away tonight.
Frankly, I see this as a good spot to back the veteran Mustangs, who are a top 60 team in experience according to KenPom. Stud guard Kendric Davis played his worst game of the season on Tuesday, the first time all year he was held under double digits. I expect him to show up to even the score with Memphis’ strong defense.
There’s one more wrinkle. SMU was without coach Tim Jankovich for the first matchup as he tested positive for COVID-19 over the weekend. He won’t be on the sidelines Thursday, but I do see the veterans on the club and the coaching staff making the necessary adjustments as well as acclimating to playing without their head coach in this one.
I like SMU at -4 and no higher in a nice zig-zag spot.
Pick: SMU -4
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary
