There are not as many marquee matchups in college basketball this week, but on the flip side, it’s a great time to check in on some teams that may not be getting as much national attention so far.
Here’s three games that I see value in early in the week. As always, these are KenPom projections on the spread and total. The market could open differently when the lines are posted about 24 hours ahead of tip off.
Tuesday, January 12: Duke at Virginia Tech (-1, 141) 7 p.m. ET
I have been on the fade Duke train all year and it is not stopping here. Duke needed to rally late to beat Boston College, and pulled away from another poor ACC team in Wake Forest on Saturday to get a double-digit victory.
Duke has been at its best this season when it can cause turnovers and clean the glass. Virginia Tech is nothing special at protecting the rock with a turnover percentage of 17.9%, ranking 100th in the country. However, they limit opponents to one shot. The Hokies rank inside the top 40 in opponent’s offensive rebound percentage.
On the Duke side, it's not a team I feel confident in backing on the road. The Blue Devils don’t get to the free throw line often, nor shoot it well when there. The team is in the 300’s in terms of free throw attempts per field goal attempts and hit on 67% of their freebies as a team. All of this is without stud freshman Jalen Johnson, who is still nursing a foot injury. There has been no update on his status yet, but we can expect him out once again.
The Blue Devils have been susceptible to getting burned from three, opponents shoot close to 38% from deep against them. This could be worrisome against a Virginia Tech team that has three rotation players shooting better than 37% from beyond the arc.
Virginia Tech should be favored by more than a point here. At anything under -3.5, I’d play the Hokies.
Tuesday, January 12: Syracuse at North Carolina (-3, 143) 9 p.m. ET
Despite being 7-2, we haven’t heard much from Syracuse this season. The Orangemen lost their only two matchups against KenPom top 100 teams thus far, but could be in line for a big win on Tuesday night.
After nearly a month off, Cuse blew a double digit lead to Pittsburgh at home before knocking off Georgetown over the weekend. Now, the patented Syracuse zone gets one of the worst perimeter shooting teams in the conference in North Carolina.
UNC’s shot metrics are tough on the eyes: 30.4% from deep, 46.2% from inside the arc, and 67.6% from the charity stripe. For perspective, those marks rank 262, 267, 246 in the country, respectively.
Not to mention, the Tar Heels are poor at taking care of the ball, turning it over on 22% of their possessions. Cuse’s zone is going to force bad looks and generate turnovers. The Orange rank 35th in the country in forcing turnovers.
However, what North Carolina does well is grab offensive rebounds. It’s size down low with the likes of Garrison Brooks leads to an offensive rebounding percentage of more than 40%. Syracuse has struggled with the Tar Heels for years now, losing nine straight before grabbing a victory in the ACC Tournament last March.
I like Cuse at anything above +2.5 and think it’s a good matchup for the Orange to grab their first signature victory of the season.
Wednesday, January 13: Tulsa at Wichita State (-1, 131) 7 p.m. ET
This is a rematch from December 15 when Wichita won at Tulsa by four. Since then, Tulsa has won six in a row, including a victory over ranked foe Houston. I think the market is overreacting to Tulsa’s winning streak and the Shockers are in a good position to get another win here and complete the season sweep.
This is a Tulsa team that relies on generating turnovers and has had some fortunate opponent mishaps to build this winning streak. For reference, Tulsa’s opponents are shooting 60% from the free throw line this season, the sixth lowest mark in the nation. With a top 50 turnover rate on defense, Frank Haith’s squad has benefitted from sloppy teams.
However, Wichita State does not fit that profile. It’s not impeccable from the line, but the Shockers hit on 70% of their free throws and only only 16% of their possession ended in turnovers, the 27th best mark in the country. Wichita does the little things right and I trust them to get the home victory against a Tulsa team that has become overvalued.
This line should be closer to 3, and would play Wichita at any number below that.
