There aren't too many quarterbacks who would survive an 0-16 season with any given team, and Jets signal-caller Sam Darnold doesn't seem to be an exception. A close game with the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13 saw Darnold record a 97.1 passer rating, his highest of the season, but that near-upset was followed by a cataclysmic 40-3 defeat at the hands of the Seahawks.
With three tough games ahead — at the Rams in Week 15, at home against the Browns in Week 16 and at Gillette Stadium against the Patriots to end the year — an 0-16 outcome is not only likely but probable. Entering Week 14, Gang Green was favored to go winless with odds of -115, and the outcome of their battle with the Seahawks should only further increase those odds.
The obvious silver lining that everyone has been talking about is that the Jets will subsequently "earn" the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 Draft, and they'd be crazy not to select one of the most highly-touted quarterback prospects that we've seen in years in Clemson's Trevor Lawrence (barring some crazy, unforeseen trade). And given the selection of Lawrence, you'd have to think that Darnold would be moved as a useful trade chip.
But that's not what Sam Darnold wants the outcome of this campaign to be, according to what he told reporters on Monday afternoon (h/t Charean Williams of Pro Football Talk).
"I believe in myself as a quarterback and a player in this league," Darnold said, adding that he sees himself as a long-term solution for New York (via Greg Joyce of New York Post Sports). "Obviously, that decision isn't up to me but I'm always going to believe in myself."
He reiterated that the decision wasn't his to make, but that if it were, it seems as though he'd want to stick around.
There are questions as to whether or not Darnold can, in fact, be a long-term solution and franchise quarterback for any team. Sure, the Jets don't appear to be an organization that would allow a quarterback to thrive over the past few seasons, but Darnold's numbers are among the league worst over that span. According to Football Outsiders' metrics, which aim to evaluate quarterbacks objectively and in a way that adjusts for situation and opponent, Darnold ranked in the bottom-five eligible quarterbacks in 2018, 2019 and, so far, in 2020. His stats over that cumulative span are as follows, compared to some other notable names.
| Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | Pass | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | From | To | Draft | Tm | Lg | Rate | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Sk |
| 1 | Drew Brees | 2018 | 2020 | 2-32 | NOR | NFL | 114.4 | 1165 | 74.16 | 9167 | 77 | 12 | 39 |
| 12 | Dak Prescott | 2018 | 2020 | 4-135 | DAL | NFL | 98.6 | 1344 | 66.59 | 10643 | 61 | 23 | 89 |
| 18 | Tom Brady | 2018 | 2020 | 6-199 | TOT | NFL | 93.7 | 1680 | 63.69 | 11908 | 83 | 30 | 64 |
| Rk | Player | From | To | Draft | Tm | Lg | Rate | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Sk |
| 21 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2018 | 2020 | 7-250 | TOT | NFL | 91.1 | 1002 | 64.77 | 7804 | 49 | 33 | 68 |
| 23 | Eli Manning | 2018 | 2019 | 1-1 | NYG | NFL | 90.4 | 723 | 65.15 | 5341 | 27 | 16 | 52 |
| 25 | Carson Wentz | 2018 | 2020 | 1-2 | PHI | NFL | 89.5 | 1445 | 63.53 | 9733 | 64 | 29 | 118 |
| 26 | Baker Mayfield | 2018 | 2020 | 1-1 | CLE | NFL | 88.8 | 1347 | 61.77 | 9994 | 70 | 42 | 82 |
| 27 | Josh Allen | 2018 | 2020 | 1-7 | BUF | NFL | 87.6 | 1252 | 60.94 | 8804 | 58 | 30 | 90 |
| 34 | Daniel Jones | 2019 | 2020 | 1-6 | NYG | NFL | 83.4 | 841 | 62.19 | 5489 | 32 | 21 | 75 |
| 35 | Andy Dalton | 2018 | 2020 | 2-35 | TOT | NFL | 83.1 | 1116 | 61.47 | 7400 | 46 | 31 | 72 |
| 36 | Sam Darnold | 2018 | 2020 | 1-3 | NYJ | NFL | 77.8 | 1122 | 59.54 | 7449 | 41 | 37 | 91 |
Note: there are 36 quarterbacks with at least 600 pass attempts from 2018 to 2020, which was the cutoff for eligibility on this list. Darnold ranks No. 36 in passer rating.
There are still those who believe Darnold can be salvaged, but whether or not that's with the Jets remains a question. A coaching change can work wonders on a quarterback — in both good and bad ways, as Eagles fans will often argue with regard to Carson Wentz and the departure of Frank Reich — and a coaching change in New York is about as inevitable as another Jets loss this season.
Darnold believes he's the long-term solution. But do the Jets, with new coaching on the horizon? The NFL Draft will answer that question for us — though we may already know what the answer will be.
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