We’re finally in the midst of college basketball’s conference play, and we’ve got a loaded slate of games. There are two in particular that present plenty of value on the opening betting line, so let’s dig in with picks for Saturday.
Lines are opening numbers at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Rutgers (-2.5) vs. Ohio State
This matchup represents a prime spot for the Scarlet Knights, coming off three losses in their past four games, including a 23-point loss to Michigan State in their last outing while shooting 3-of-12 on 3s.
The first of those losses came against these Buckeyes in Columbus, Ohio, as Rutgers guard Jacob Young suffered a shoulder injury and big man Myles Johnson -- the team's best interior defender -- fouled out with just over eight minutes left in the game.
For starters, look for a motivated Scarlet Knights team to regress positively from behind the arc, as they shot 25.0% on 3s versus the Spartans.. Not only is this a slightly overrated Ohio State unit in the market, but it’s also allowing the 74th-highest 3-point scoring rate in the nation. If Rutgers controls the tempo and speeds up the Buckeyes in transition, Ron Harper Jr. (46.9%) and his teammates should bounce back from deep at home.
Plus, Ohio State’s offense has relied heavily on getting to the line, tallying the 35th-highest scoring rate in that department. That won’t carry over in this one, especially with Buckeyes guard CJ Walker out, as the Scarlet Knights boast an above-average opponent's free-throw rate.
The Pick: Rutgers -2.5
Texas (-1.5) at West Virginia
Generally speaking, I wouldn’t back a team off a comeback win because of the potential for a letdown in the following matchup. The Mountaineers overcame a 19-point second half deficit at Oklahoma State on Monday, but they emerged with a new wrinkle to their defensive system, which sets up well against the Longhorns.
With Oscar Tshiebwe leaving the program, Bob Huggins went to a four-out, one-in lineup, putting four guards on the floor as opposed to another big next to forward Derrick Culver. That allowed him to deliver a more effective press, and it should continue to generate havoc versus Texas, as Shaka Smart’s bunch has racked up a 19.0% team turnover rate (No. 149 in the country).
Texas also runs a perimeter-oriented offense, and West Virginia has given up the 57th-lowest opponents’ 3-point percentage (29.7%) in college basketball.
At the other end, the Longhorns have yielded the 53rd-highest 2-point scoring rate in Division I, despite their lengthy roster. Even though West Virginia has begun to operate more on the perimeter with its new-look lineup, establishing Culver will be key, and the Mountaineers have been effective running their offense through him once they became comfortable playing without Tshiebwe.
The Pick: WVU +1.5
