The 2021 NCAA Tournament is a sports bettors paradise. There are bets to make all day and night and we are here to help you get prepared for March Madness.
The key to having a profitable tournament is analyzing matchups, not teams. There are some teams that I have been high on all season, but that got bad draws in the tournament which led me to fade them.
Here are five teams that are worth fading in the Tournament.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The book is out on Ohio State. After a seven game winning streak that saw the Buckeyes climb inside the top 5 of the AP Poll, the team’s porous defense was exposed, leading to four straight losses. After that, Ohio State navigated a way to the Big Ten title game, only to lose to No. 1 seed Illinois.
The Big Ten Tournament wasn’t pretty, as OSU blew three consecutive double digit second half leads due to their lack of a defensive identity.
Currently, the Buckeyes have the 79th rated defense, per KenPom. If you take out the strength of schedule factored into that metric, the Buckeyes have the 237th best defense in the country, according to TeamRankings.com.
While Ohio State has a strong offense that shoots well from three and has a go-to scorer in E.J. Liddell, their defense is going to keep teams in games. The team is generating turnovers at the 21st lowest clip in the country and is mediocre on both the offensive and defensive glass.
A first round matchup with Oral Roberts is going to be a fun game, but may be closer than many expect. ORU is one of the most three-point reliant teams in the country, ranking inside the top 10 in percentage of points coming from beyond the arc. Armed with the nation’s leading scorer Max Abmas, the Eagles may be able to hang around.
I’m not calling for an outright upset, but with the No. 15 seed’s shotmaking this game is going to feature a ton of points and could require a second half comeback. Both teams should break 80 points.
After that, more physical and complete teams stand in Ohio State's way. Both Texas Tech and Utah State are fantastic at cleaning the offensive glass and can keep a lid on the OSU offense.
Meanwhile, No. 3 seed Arkansas plays at a fast tempo and can run the Buckeyes off the floor if they don’t figure it out on the defensive end. Eric Musselman’s group does a great job of not beating themselves.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State features arguably the best player in the country in Cade Cunningham, but the path for them to make a run in this year’s tournament is not easy.
For starters, a first round matchup against Liberty is a brutal draw for the underseeded Pokes. The Flames ability to get hot from the three-point territory and play at a slow pace is going to be a problem for OSU. Mike Boynton’s club likes to play fast and get inside to offset their inconsistent perimeter shooting.
Liberty is top 10 in three-point percentage and has the recipe to pull an upset.
A second round matchup doesn’t set up well for the Cowboys either, assuming they play Tennessee. The Vols are inside the top 15 nationally in turnover rate while Oklahoma State sits at 298th in protecting the rock. Tennessee may have an up-and-down offense, but their defense is as good as advertised.
The Cowboys are a public darling with Cunningham running the show and because of their recent run in the Big 12 Tournament, but the selection committee made this a tough path for them. That’s not even mentioning a Sweet 16 showdown with No. 1 seed Illinois on the horizon.
Villanova Wildcats
I have been off the Villanova bandwagon for sometime, but the Wildcats’ issues became more glaring after senior guard Collin Gillespie tore his MCL in early March.
This is a thin Nova squad to begin with, as they typically use a seven-man rotation. The team is going to need the rest of the rotation to step up, including sophomore guard Chris Arcidiacono.
However, that seems easier said than done. Gillespie posted a 26% assist percentage, a key cog for a Nova team that spreads the ball well, inside the top 50 in assist rate. This issue may be exposed in Villanova’s first round game against Winthrop.
Winthrop plays a high tempo style with heavy ball pressure, forcing turnovers at the 23rd highest rate in the country. Without their floor general, Nova may be out of sorts in this one.
In the battle of tempo, if the Wildcats are forced to run with the Eagles, it won’t be pretty. Nova plays at a bottom 50 tempo while the Eagles play at the 11th fastest.
Jay Wright has proven to be one of the best coaches in basketball, but the loss of Gillespie may be too much to overcome. Looking at their season long metrics, the Wildcats’ defense is not pretty. The team is in the bottom third nationally in defensive effective field goal percentage, allowing opponents to boast a 51% eFG, which weighs three-point makes more.
Shorthanded, and poor defensively, Nova is in trouble from the jump in this tournament.
West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia is a team trending in the wrong direction. The team went 4-4 over their last eight games and their defense has put a ton of pressure on their offense to bail them out.
While the likes of Deuce McBride and Taz Sherman have put together fantastic seasons, this team seems ripe to be upset.
This is not your typical ‘Press Va’ either. The Mountaineers do turn opponents over at a top 75 clip, but not in their typical fashion, usually ranking inside the top 5 nationally.
The team is awful on the defensive glass, 286th in the country and is in the bottom third of the country in two-point defense.
On the offensive end, a high free throw rate keeps the offense afloat -- inside the top nation’s top 20 in that metric -- which masks a team that struggles to score inside, just 46%.
Morehead State’s ability to clean the glass can pose some issues for West Virginia, but if they get through that, San Diego State is a team that can make them pay. SDSU is great on the glass and can shoot it from deep.
Houston also looms in this bracket, one of the best rebounding teams in the country, the second best offensive rebounding rate in the nation. If this matchup comes to be in the Sweet 16, West Virginia’s defense will be exposed against a potent and physical Cougars offense.
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado has all the looks of a good team, but when you dig a little bit deeper, this is the exact team to fade come March.
The Buffs have the benefit of playing at a high altitude, which generates a pronounced home court advantage.
The team went 11-1 at home while going just 6-6 on the road this season. The NCAA Tournament is played on a neutral site, but these figures point out how Colorado shows up as two different teams dependent on the location.
Colorado’s field goal percentage falls more than five percent when you filter through home and road games, going from over 48% to 43%. On defense, the team allows opponents to make less than 40% of their field goal attempts at home, but that number jumps to over 43% on the road.
‘Rado is able to close games out at the line very well, as the team comes in second best in the nation from the charity stripe. I do think that this team is a bit inflated as a five seed due to their sterling home resume that is negated by struggles at lower altitude.
Tad Boyle’s team is balanced, but doesn’t excel at one thing, and it may surprise people when they have an early exit from the tournament.
Georgetown does a lot of things well and comes in with momentum after locking up a bid with a Big East Tournament title. If the Hoyas get going from three and are able to find Qudus Wahab down low, this 5-12 matchup may get interesting.
These are five teams I plan on betting against as the 'Big Dance' gets going this weekend. Beware of putting them deep into your brackets as there are a ton of matchup issues for these five.
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Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.
