And then there were eight. A crazy March Madness has us down to the Elite 8 in the NCAA Tournament. Which teams will survive and advance to the Final 4?
Our college basketball experts and hosts of the BetQL U podcast, Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, broke down all four matchups and give their best bets for the Elite 8 with odds courtesy of BetMGM.
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Hershkovich
Oregon State Beavers (+7.5) vs. Houston Cougars
I don’t see the Beavers’ run ending tonight — at least against the spread.
Oregon State’s biggest offensive weapon is getting to the free-throw line, generating the 40th-highest scoring rate in that department. As sound as Houston’s defense is, Kelvin Sampson’s team struggles to keep teams off the line because of its ultra aggressive nature, yielding the fifth-highest opponent's scoring rate.
Both teams place in the bottom-30 of Adjusted Tempo, so fewer possessions plays to the underdog if the Beavers can continue to convert from the line (77.1% — 28th-highest percentage). Look for the 6-foot-5 Ethan Thompson (15.8 ppg) to attack the rim and help create those opportunities.
Oregon State also has a size advantage, and it racked up the 105th-highest offensive rebounding rate in Division I. Houston causes the same havoc at its own offensive end, but its average-sized rotation does give up some second-chance opportunities.
The Cougars boast the 58th-highest scoring rate from behind the arc at the other end, but the Beavers are allowing the 23rd-lowest 3-point clip (30.4%) in the nation. If Wayne Tinkle’s team keeps this game in the halfcourt, Houston won’t tally as many perimeter looks, either.
Casale
USC Trojans Team Total OVER 72.5
This will be Gonzaga's most competitive game since the Bulldogs faced Iowa before Christmas. I did grab USC +9.5 on the opening line but my favorite play is over the Trojans' team total of 72.5.
Gonzaga's defense has been far from suffocating versus the tougher teams on its schedule. In 10 games versus Kansas, Auburn, West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Oklahoma, Creighton, and BYU, the Bulldogs are allowing an average of 76 points. In order to compete with the Zags, teams have to score because holding the Bulldogs under 70 points isn't a realistic option, even for USC's No. 1 ranked 2-point percentage defense.
Both of these teams have been dominant in the NCAA Tournament and I expect a competitive game on Tuesday. However, win or lose, I see USC eclipsing 72.5 points in this matchup.
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To hear more March Madness predictions from Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, check out their BetQL U podcast.