The 2021 NCAA Tournament tips off the last day of the Sweet 16 before we are down to eight teams vying for the National Championship. Betting underdogs have dominated the NCAA Tournament but will that trend continue on Sunday?
Our college basketball experts and hosts of the BetQL U podcast, Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, break down all the games for Round 2 and give their top plays for Sunday with odds courtesy of BetMGM.
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Hershkovich
Florida State Seminoles (+2.5) vs. Michigan Wolverines
We’re betting against the No. 1 overall seed in the East Region — again.
Florida State’s biggest offensive liability is turnovers, racking up 30 of them in the first two rounds of the big dance. Georgia Tech also forced 25 FSU turnovers in the ACC tournament title game. But that isn’t Michigan’s strength, ranking 337th in the country in turnover %.
If the Seminoles can play at their faster pace and get to the rim — the Wolverines are allowing the 87th-highest 2-point scoring rate in college basketball — they’ll be able to set up consistent ball pressure at the other end of the floor. Not only has Michigan’s defense suffered without forward Isaiah Livers (1.04 opponents’ points per possession), but it’s also struggled to take care of the ball without one of its primary scorers on the floor.
The 6-foot-9 Scottie Barnes and 6-foot-6 Anthony Polite represent key pieces in that regard — both ranking in the top-205 nationally in individual steal percentage. Florida State’s overall length will give Juwan Howard’s team fits offensively, especially since Wolverines center Hunter Dickenson (14.2 ppg) & Co. rely on scoring inside the arc at a top-125 scoring rate.
If FSU’s big men Raekwon Gray and Balsa Koprivica, two of the more efficient rebounders at each end, stay out of foul trouble, Michigan will have an even tougher time operating at a slower tempo.
I’d back Florida State down to +2, but you should grab the hook while you can.
Casale
Oregon Ducks (+2.5) vs. USC Trojans
Oregon and USC were both very impressive in its second-round wins, but I think there is some value here with the Ducks catching 2.5 points.
Oregon ripped through Iowa in the early game last Monday. Meanwhile, later that night, USC blew the doors off Kansas. While both teams looked like legit Final Four contenders, I was more impressed with the Ducks win. I thought Oregon might be rusty after its first-round game vs. VCU got canceled, but the Ducks shot 63% and hung 95 points on Iowa. USC suffocated Kansas but that was a short-handed Jayhawks squad coming off a COVID layoff. I set this line closer to pick.
The Trojans' zone held Kansas to just 6-of-25 (24%) from 3-point range. However, the Jayhawks aren't a great 3-point shooting teams, hitting just 33.6% on the season from long range. Oregon presents a much tougher test. The Ducks are the 15th best 3-point shooting team in the country.
After suffering injuries and dealing with COVID issues during the first three months of the season, the Ducks are peaking at the right time, going 12-2 over their last 14 games. While USC stud freshman Evan Mobley presents matchup problems for Oregon, the Ducks' 6-7 F Chris Duarte does the same for USC. If Duarte is hitting his shots on the wing, it's advantage Ducks.
USC is getting too much love in the market for hammering a Kansas team that was playing on fumes last weekend. And you know, Dana Altman can coach a little bit in March. Give me the Ducks +2.5 in a game I think they win outright.
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To hear more March Madness predictions from Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, check out their BetQL U podcast.